Radtechwxman

20 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

6:1 ratios in the heart of winter with a deep SLP is rough 

El Nino winter FTL. Love some cement snow

I will take 12z euro for 500 Alex

GEFS remains nw of the OP. This has been a pretty consistent trend. 

3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

It's been years since we've seen a nw trend or a storm actually strengthen to the degree the models are showing. Models have gotten tendencies to over amp storms so anything is on the table, from a sub 980 tracking over chicago to 990 tracking over pittsburgh. Either way this low pressure is impressive on satellite and causing high winds in alaska.

That isn't our system. That's the Aleutian low. Our system is a smaller disturbance rotating around the base of that low. Probably why models are struggling right now. 

Here I was worried about a nw shift and now I'm hoping for one. Lol. Not digging this trend. 

Other models taking a se shift esp Canadian. Ukmet looks like snow just dies over IL. Looks like possible thermal issues. Guessing euro will be more se than 12z run. 0z gfs is as good as it gets. If only we were closer. Would love to lock that in. 

2 minutes ago, Baum said:

Just an FYI the NE storm has not trended SE and weaker. I have over 60 sites in Jersey to manage this year for snow removal service and am following that area as much as my own backyard. If anything, it has trended NW in the past 24 hours particularly the 12Z euro run.

I haven't looked at anything for the weekend storm so I took the word verbatim. Should know better. Ha. But that also doesn't make me feel easy because I'm afraid of a last second nw trend with this one which will put me in mixing, rain, or dry slot. But like Chicago Storm said, still a lot of moving pieces to come together to see where this will track. 

35 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

This weekend's Nor'easter did trend weaker and SE.  Seems to be following last year's trends.   

Just waiting for this storm to do the same. Lol

Just now, Brian D said:

NW TREND! NW TREND! 

NO. DONT YOU DARE

11 minutes ago, Chambana said:

yeah thermals are concerning. Cold rain or a back end paste job is not out of the question here. 

Yeah it's going to be close call for areas east with warm surge and dry slot screaming north. How north it gets will depend on sfc low position and strength. 

7 minutes ago, therock said:

Make it so. (Feeling that we get dry-slotted here in Central IL while Peoria and NW cash in based on typical low tracks)

I'm not safe here in Peoria either. Euro brought mixing line and dry slot dangerously close. If things hold I'm good, barely, but if it trends anymore nw I may be out of it. 

Euro definitely aggressive with that warm nose and dry slot into IL. Dangerously close here. Something to watch as these strong lows always pull up a lot of warm air and a big dry slot and models tend to underestimate them. Hoping track doesn't go anymore nw from where it is, ha. But nw trend wouldn't shock me one bit. 

9 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The main key will be where the high to the east sets up and how strong, and if there is a piece of energy to the north that could help swing the low north and put in some lead edge WAA that could present boundary layer issues. If there isn't a piece of energy to the north and you end up with more of a banana low this could lift northeast and then slide east from there. A lot of moving pieces still.

Explains the model chaos right now. I think noaa is sending out plans to get data at some point this week. Definitely need some sampling of our system. 

Definitely afraid of a nw trend on this one with how strong the low is. I don't have a lot of wiggle room. Lol. Going to be a nail biter for sure. Key will be how quick trough goes neg tilt and how fast that low takes off because that's when it will start taking a more ne turn. 

13 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

The trends on the Northeast storm have me on edge wrt this storm, but both of the "storms" can't go poof like old times can they... I guess we'll see if past winter trends continue. Nice to see the CMC join the GFS on approximate track. Probably shouldn't pay close attention until a few days from now anyways.

Literally my exact thoughts. Though that initially wasn't looking potent then trended that way and now has trended down. This storm has consistently looked like a big dog in long range and now medium range. But not going to lie, definitely nervous on a downward trend as it approaches. 

12z euro doing similar situation to 12z gfs. Very limited cold sector precip for IL. Interesting turn on models today. 

3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

not gonna get it done with a cold sector like this

 

Is that why the qpf is pretty meager except in narrow corridor? I been looking at the relative humidity and it looked fine from sfc up through 500mb. Surprised llj would be ripping on nw side with low like that. 

12z gfs evolution synoptically looks amazing but cold sector qpf seems to only be high in a very narrow corridor. The deformation band seemed kind of splotchy over a large area at first and then a more intense band close to low track which resulted in a wide swath of 1-3in and very narrow band of 6in+. Maybe some dry air issues? 

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

the general agreement at 500 for a deep slp with a classic track looks great but I fear a lack of cold air and progressive nature are gonna keep this from being too interesting, ymmv and would love to be wrong

looks like actual cold available for whatever comes next which will be nice

My exact concerns esp with the antecedent temps. Afraid most/all of the front end thump will be rain or mix which will hold back snow amounts some. Looks like dynamic cooling and cooler temps filtering in from nw in the deformation axis will be main if not only player for heavy snow. So we really will need that low to deepen sufficiently to wrap up that deformation band. Regardless could still be a high impact event with blizzard like conditions. 

22 hours ago, Frog Town said:

This is not a recent post from Ryan Wichman as I know him personally and he has not made this post recently.  Must be really old or from a different account. 

I went to school with him actually. Western IL University. He tends to be more conservative with forecasting. 

Looks like eye started to fill right before landfall. May have weakened ever so slightly probably from land interaction with mountainous terrain. But NHC called it a 165mph landfall

Reed posted these on his FB page. Unbelievable damage 

I was hoping Josh would be there. Just to see footage from this. Going to be unreal. If anyone could pull it off, it would be him. Thanks everyone for looking into the radar situation. Too bad we have nothing to look at from that perspective but man this satellite imagery is wow. 

1 minute ago, Floydbuster said:

I just find it hard to believe that a major metropolitan city of one million people wouldn't have a radar site in 2023. 

Just may not have the funding like we do from government for NOAA. I mean look how outdated Canada's radars are. Not to get off topic. Would love to see Otis on radar. Also hoping for some HH footage. 

1 minute ago, Floydbuster said:

I thought Acapulco had a radar site, but I've been searching too and unable to find it.

I found a few sites that made it seem like I could view a radar from there but then loaded nothing. They also are really in the thick of it now so may be having issues. 

Otis is just making a v-line for Acapulco. The satellite imagery just gives you a pit in your stomach. Those poor people 

Is there any radar data to look at? Been searching but having 0 luck