Radtechwxman

4 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

I-74 is becoming the new I-72 of old as far as cut off line goes, be it severe weather or winter.

Should have seen this coming after the June 30 derecho, one event per year below the cut off line....

 

Yeah we just can't catch a break meanwhile the rich keep getting richer from the last storm. Must be nice. Lol

I would love if tonight overperformed like hrrr is showing here. Esp since it screws me mostly on back end precip

46 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Of course a massive bubble of lower totals right where I'm at

0z hrrr is very odd. Have a double barrel strengthening low. Both low centers strengthening. One tracks basically over me and the other well se. It changes over precip from east to west. Gets me in a waa screw hole between lows. Not sure I buy that evolution. Very strange. 

Euro is skimpy with back end deformation snow compared to other models esp further south on tail end. Another thing I noticed is that hrrr last few runs has shown the waa precip staying snow here longer before mixing. 

5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Ya'll are slacking... No 18z GGEM mention?

When was the last time that model was right?

Okay real question. It's been pondering me a while. How does this system have so much more warmer air with it vs the last? I get trough geometry is a bit different but I still am baffled with the track similarities between this one and last and how this time it looks mostly liquid here. Stronger llj? Deeper cross section of waa vs last? 

1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Would be wild if it played out as progged on the GFS. Downtown and the riverfront get 2-3” while the north side of the metro has 8-12”

Gradients and cutoffs are going to be wild with this. I look to be very close to one. My forecast is 0-6in based on latest model runs. 

43 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

FWIW, GFS seems a touch south and east 

I actually felt like it came nw. Has kind of a barrel double low then one takes over further east. Nam/rap/hrrr were hinting at this at times. Maybe they were right. The snow gradient across Peoria County is comical. 

5 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Seems to me that some of this recent uptick in snowfall totals for those within the cold conveyor belt is an increase in coverage of the backside/deformation precipitation. One has to wonder if the general lack of convection further south may play a role in this. Ratios will no doubt be higher in this zone as temps crash behind the low.

That is a good point. Noticed spc has toned down severe threat due to poor thermodynamics and limited moisture return. So less convection. 

I wouldn't trust nam. It did terrible with last storm. 

Nam continues to be so nw with the low track

7 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:

I wish we could just agree to take what the hrrr shows right now. Chicago gets its storm, Minneapolis gets a nice dumping, Michigan gets a nice storm, and a lot of snow in between. This is about a best case scenario run for this sub.


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Not really. Lol. Screws the parts of IL that also missed out on last storm. And Ohio Valley really getting the shaft. 

14 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

I’ll have what she’s having…

 

That stings a little. Just love barely missing a massive snowstorm and possible blizzard 

17 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

 

Hoping hrrr is overdone with that warm surge. Or changes over sooner

Lol instead of getting better consensus it's getting worse 

1 minute ago, Weather Mike said:

GFS has been very consistent. Good to see that trend ....if it unfolds that way

Minus the void over my county decided to keep rain here longer

Comical that gfs hammers areas all over me and has a void over Peoria County where I am #weatherdome

13 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Most of the short range models were too far NW with the last storm at this range, fwiw

This. Not trusting them 100%. Globals actually did better with track on last storm. 

Nam/rap/hrrr still seem to be on nw side of other guidance. Will make huge difference here. 

At this point I would start trusting hi res guidance more over globals. 06z hrrr seemed to be finally in line with other models. Rap was still pretty nw. 

06z euro a little drier. Wonder if it will be like last system where after it occludes deformation zone starts to lose steam. 

Euro still not wanting to play nice for areas further south like other globals. Crush job for Chicago and N IL of course. Man this one hurts. That track on euro looks so good for here normally. Hoping maybe that warm nose won't get that west. 

44 minutes ago, Natester said:

03z RAP takes the low to Chicago/Milwaukee and bombs it out to 965 mb.

Feel like rap/hrrr will continue to nudge se closer to guidance like last event

Gfs is remarkably consistent compared to the other models

Team gfs and rgem till the end. Ride or die