Radtechwxman

1 minute ago, Imneversatisfied said:

I need like a 50 mile SE shift. Damn warm lake is going to screw me if not. 

You and me both. Minus the lake part. Ha

Hrrr/rap continue to be pretty nw for here and basically track low over me and have a rain for good chunk of Tues but nice front end thump. 3km and 12km nam though have trended more se and keep me out of mixing or rain as much. Not sure what to believe. Hrrr/rap have been pretty consistent. 

Euro quite warm at beginning of this storm. Takes while for changeover for good chunk of IL. Not sure I buy that given the arctic air moving se. But that is plausible outcome IF the arctic air doesn't get as far south in time. 

17 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The 03z RAP had a very impressive depiction of the front end WAA snow tomorrow night. It's a plausible solution, if not in the top end amounts but the idea of several inches, given PWATs nearing 0.7" (0.6" is considered very high for snow), steep mid-upper lapse rates, slantwise and at times upright instability, and strong lift.

For the areas that max out, 1"/hour rates appear likely, and potential for 2"/hour is there.

Was texting with our lead forecaster on midnights for the storm, Carlaw, and he thinks TSSN is decent bet.





 

Starting to look like the WAA snows will be best of this storm for many, esp my area. Dryslot/mixing is looking to be a real issue here Tues after WAA snows. Deformation zone doesn't seem as impressive as one would think with a low this strong. Guessing maybe occlusion processes cutting off moisture feed too early. Do you think we will see the sfc low track nw of I55 like hrrr/rap/nam are suggesting? Also noticing on these models that the low seems kind of strung out despite being pretty strong. Idk if these models struggle with representing the isobars correctly but the low looks so large on these models. 

I'm not getting excited at all considering I sat pretty forever on this current system and now look to get missed mostly nw. However the arctic air pushing in may help to limit extreme nw trends with this one. 

The lead wave Thurs seems to have trended stronger on gfs again so dampens/flattens our potential big dog. Definitely something to watch. Euro/Canadian look better than gfs. I think models going to struggle with this until they resolve Mon-Tues system and its snow pack. 

2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The nw trend on the Euro continues.  Higher totals are pulling away from the lake.  I'm feeling pretty good over here.  Hopefully, the iffy temp won't hurt the accumulation too much.

Must be nice. Lol. I sat good forever on this one but last second nw shift trying to crush my hopes and dreams. Will see if the trends hold tomorrow. 

Man 0z euro painful here. Right on the mixing line. Brutal cutoff. I'm not liking where I sit at all. Feel like Iowa is wheeling this one in slowly. Still hoping for a slight se correction in next day or so. If these trends continue tomorrow I'm probably out of this one. 

Must say models tonight have me nervous. Dry slot and mixing line VERY close. I hope the nw trend stops or corrects back se. But a continued nw shift wouldn't surprise me. 

18z euro jump nw. Man. This nw trend can stop anyday now. Has mixing line right on me. Hoping for slight correction back se 

Would be an absolute shame to see that happen when we finally get quality cold air in place. Models probably going to struggle until they resolve the early week system and the snow pack it lays down

Okay nw shift can stop now ha. Getting a little too close for comfort to rain-snow line

4 minutes ago, Chambana said:

ILX always does. Just like WCIA (local weather here in CI) I wish this snowfall wasn’t getting nuked by the warm temps prior to the next system, would certainly help with thermals. 

I do agree thermals are an issue esp with eastern extent cuz of strong waa but don't agree it won't changeover till late Tues. I think strong forcing and dynamic cooling will help changeover. 

ILX majorly downplaying this in their latest afd. Calling for mix or potentially rain through majority of the event well into Tues. 

15 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Not surprised at all to see the NAM that amped at this range. Front end thump with the WAA has looked decent for a while - the air mass isn't cold but cold enough.

 

Yeah typical nam. Usually on north end of guidance in its long range but falls in line with guidance as we close in. Unless this does end up stronger and nw which is plausible. Hoping for a nice front end thump. 

1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

Unfortunately ILX has been using these maps in their graphics too.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

That's not surprising. Lol. But definitely misleading the public. On a side note nam looking like it will be relatively north at end of its run. Probably near STL. Nice front end thump. If you can believe its temp profiles. 

25 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

i don't know why they still waste their time with these. they're always so bad.

Did you see the 1000mb contour was inside the 996mb contour? Lol

25 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

 

 

Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

 

The latest model guidance suite continues to offer a good overall depiction of the synoptic scale weather pattern for the first half of next week including the evolution of the major low pressure system over the Plains and Great Lakes/Northeast. A multi-deterministic composite model blend of well clustered guidance from the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian along with the NBM and WPC product continuity was used for the period from Monday-Wednesday to produce max detail consistent with a pattern with seemingly above normal predictability. Going into the latter half of next week, gradually increasing model differences in the wake of the strong low favored some blend inclusion of compatible but smoother input from the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means along with the models.

I just don't buy rain-snow line being that west and I think they're being a bit conservative with the low strength 

I would love to know what model blend they're following. I do agree rain or mix will start before a changeover in the heavier rates in deformation band but I think they're too weak with low and a bit too warm. 

39 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Another example of the importance of the ensembles at this range. The east coast system this weekend is a good case in point - there's still been noteworthy run to run swings by the operational runs in the last few model cycles.




 

OP euro was definitely struggling with the thermals. It's a shame this system doesn't have a nice arctic air mass to work with. Pretty much depending on intense precip in def band to dynamically cool column for snow. Ratios going to be low. Someone nearby will get warning criteria snowfall but this easily could have been a widespread foot plus for a bigger area if antecedent air mass was colder. 

58 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Must be. A 986 deepening low sitting over Carbondale, but barely throwing precip to Champaign seems off. 

The EPS looks better

3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Also devoid of precip for a good amount of time. Really strange evolution 

Wondering if it's having convective feedback issues

4 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea I think with a low that strong, there will be more dynamic cooling that the models aren't portraying. A track from NE Arkansas to Cleveland is usually good for most of Michigan. Interesting to see the euro look more like earlier gfs runs and the latest gfs took a step towards the euro.

Definitely would think with a system that dynamic that deformation band would change to solid snow in the heavy precip. Hopefully sampling soon will help models resolve this. 

Euro is a torch. Lol. Deformation band is mostly a mix. Snow amounts terrible 

34 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

You would have enjoyed last winter in SE MI then. Multiple good cement snowstorms. 

ANY snow is better than no snow, and wet snow is beautiful, but Im a powder person  lol.

It was very much sarcasm. Lol. But I will take anything at this point! Snow is snow!