Radtechwxman

Im just not overly impressed by this setup and definitely not feeling as aggressive as spc is. Low deepens quick Tues and is well into occlusion process by Wed. Low also very far north. There is good flow over warm sector but feel like sfc winds will tend to veer without secondary low development. Models look very linear right now and morning convection could definitely be an issue esp with northward extent. It does look more cellular further south and there is some orthogonal nature to shear vectors off CF. But the more south you go, the more removed from the low you are. Just not 100% on board with a big tornado threat yet. 

5 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Agree on both accounts.

It seems that the only likely tornado just happened to be one that was unwarned and that no one saw (Delavan).

Thank you! Glad someone has a brain. Apparently chasers need spotter training again. Saw multiple reputable chasers calling obvious gustnadoes tornadoes. 

It's a shame dew points mixed out so bad. Hrrr modeled that well. Moisture so shallow and we mixed pretty deep today. Went from 55 dew earlier to 44. Showing recovery possible last second. Feel like best tornado threat will be I72 south and likely I70 south. Hoping line organizes more so I can at least get damaging winds. 

7 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Starting to think we have a decent chance at 80 on Friday with intense southerly flow ahead of the storm system.  

And gfs and euro both were only showing temps around 70. That's definitely underdone

Well this system was an epic bust and one next week misses way south. So over winter. Bring on spring. 

Just now, fluoronium said:

The WAA hit was more impressive than I expected it to be here. It's not often I get solid snow rates with ripping SE winds. It's too bad it didn't last very long though.

 

It did come down nicely here. Good rates. Relatively low visibility. If it was moving slower we easily could of got 2-4in. 

Come on 0z gfs! My only hope. Ha

49 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Pretty much the Euro versus everyone else with higher totals for the second round in Michigan 

Yeah you guys are in for a great storm. Mad jelly

18z euro looks like hot garage 

Getting nice rippage with WAA snow. Hrrr had it missing me. Wish it was moving slow because could dump a lot fast. Hoping maybe a sign we will get surprised tomorrow. 

3 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Good luck Detroit 

 

Wish that could be IL but apparently never going to happen this winter 

That euro run was trash. Crazy we are so close to event and models all over the place. How did euro do with last storm?

1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Cold side precip seems odd, would think for a more wound up solution it would be throwing some more consistent moisture back into IL/WI

I thought the exact same thing. Maybe moisture getting robbed by convection. I definitely don't dig the look of gfs for me. 

I'm happy for the potential for you Michigan folks. But wish I could squeak in one good snow. Waa snows definitely look to be non event here. My only hope is the wraparound. 

Well the rich get richer on 12z hrrr. Miss waa snow and deformation band takes a while to change over here. Would be nice to catch a break for one system. Need it se a bit more but that's unlikely. 

06z runs didn't look as favorable. If 12z runs follow suit I'm probably going to say those 0z runs were a fluke

7 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Euro is about 5 to 6 millibars weaker with the surface low compared to the GFS. Takes about the same path though. The good news: that surface low on the 00z Euro is stronger than on the 12z Euro. Overall, it’s a step in the right direction.

Euro wanting to always crush dreams. It couldn't play nice and jump on board. 0z very encouraging but I'm still remaining highly skeptical. Hopefully models continue this tomorrow. 

2 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

I need that NAM run about 25 miles southwest. Splits my county in half between 9" of snow to the north and 3" to the south.

Watch it get so amped and screw us. Ha. I would give my right testicle for 0z nam to verify. Definitely steps in right direction. Hoping it continues on models tomorrow. But still feel jackpot may be I80 north. Peoria has nearly a 13in deficit. I need this. Lol

6 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

This will whittle down to nothing over the course of today and overnight. I miss the days of a good ole wound up panhandle low tracking over south bend. 

You and me both

Why I didn't get invested in this because I knew this was going to happen. Following seasonal trends. 

Well this certainly is trending favorably for me. I can't think of a worse winter here. WAA snows probably going to miss north. System phases too late so no wraparound. And next week storm track is suppressed. Back to miserable cold and dry. Still hoping I can get some WAA snow but not optimistic at all. 

Now 0z euro crushes our hopes and dreams

Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

I'm expecting to get 1-3" from the WAA snow Friday.  The main low is still a mystery, so I'm not really expecting anything.  

Probably gunna get the jackpot yet again. Lol

3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

No that's probably what's coming for Iowa City and Cedar Rapids 

You're not wrong there. Sigh. We need to combine forces to pull this a little south

4 minutes ago, hlcater said:

7.3" for the final total in IC

Wrong thread. Lol