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Radtechwxman

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Posts posted by Radtechwxman

  1. Im just not overly impressed by this setup and definitely not feeling as aggressive as spc is. Low deepens quick Tues and is well into occlusion process by Wed. Low also very far north. There is good flow over warm sector but feel like sfc winds will tend to veer without secondary low development. Models look very linear right now and morning convection could definitely be an issue esp with northward extent. It does look more cellular further south and there is some orthogonal nature to shear vectors off CF. But the more south you go, the more removed from the low you are. Just not 100% on board with a big tornado threat yet. 

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  2. 5 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

    Agree on both accounts.

    It seems that the only likely tornado just happened to be one that was unwarned and that no one saw (Delavan).

    Thank you! Glad someone has a brain. Apparently chasers need spotter training again. Saw multiple reputable chasers calling obvious gustnadoes tornadoes. 

  3. It's a shame dew points mixed out so bad. Hrrr modeled that well. Moisture so shallow and we mixed pretty deep today. Went from 55 dew earlier to 44. Showing recovery possible last second. Feel like best tornado threat will be I72 south and likely I70 south. Hoping line organizes more so I can at least get damaging winds. 

  4. Just now, fluoronium said:

    The WAA hit was more impressive than I expected it to be here. It's not often I get solid snow rates with ripping SE winds. It's too bad it didn't last very long though.

     

    It did come down nicely here. Good rates. Relatively low visibility. If it was moving slower we easily could of got 2-4in. 

  5. 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

    Cold side precip seems odd, would think for a more wound up solution it would be throwing some more consistent moisture back into IL/WI

    I thought the exact same thing. Maybe moisture getting robbed by convection. I definitely don't dig the look of gfs for me. 

  6. 7 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

    Euro is about 5 to 6 millibars weaker with the surface low compared to the GFS. Takes about the same path though. The good news: that surface low on the 00z Euro is stronger than on the 12z Euro. Overall, it’s a step in the right direction.

    Euro wanting to always crush dreams. It couldn't play nice and jump on board. 0z very encouraging but I'm still remaining highly skeptical. Hopefully models continue this tomorrow. 

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  7. 2 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

    I need that NAM run about 25 miles southwest. Splits my county in half between 9" of snow to the north and 3" to the south.

    Watch it get so amped and screw us. Ha. I would give my right testicle for 0z nam to verify. Definitely steps in right direction. Hoping it continues on models tomorrow. But still feel jackpot may be I80 north. Peoria has nearly a 13in deficit. I need this. Lol

    • Like 2
  8. Well this certainly is trending favorably for me. I can't think of a worse winter here. WAA snows probably going to miss north. System phases too late so no wraparound. And next week storm track is suppressed. Back to miserable cold and dry. Still hoping I can get some WAA snow but not optimistic at all. 

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