Radtechwxman

Congrats. We have a lot of met majors here. Opinions are great--but do remember SPC is not putting out outlooks and forecasts to appease their own storm chasing fantasies. Just remember that there are folks at SPC who are pioneers in the field of severe weather and severe weather forecasting.

"makes no sense at all what they are doing"

never said i was going to be right. i have reasoning behind my current thinking. i am not a wishcaster by any means. you just keep stating the obvious. not really necessary. i am going to state my opinion and i love reading what other people say to. i just dont need witty remarks back of things i already know. i am well aware of what the SPC does and aware of the expertise in the forecasting field. doesnt mean i am always going to agree with their forecasts because there arent always right just like many meteorologists and majors, like myself, in the field

Yes you told us what the operational models were already saying. There is far more to forecasting than that. Do remember we are talking Day 4-5+ here.

yes i know.....i am a meteorology major. i do know these things. but i still disagree with their thinking. we all have opinions

If you disagree--please provide your own reasoning/discussion for such disagreement. Do remember these are probabilistic outlooks.

I gave my reasoning in my previous comment. the low pressure is set to track up this way. currently looks like it will through eastern iowa and into the great lakes. that will drag the warm front with it northward. yes the best shear, instability, and moisture will prolly line up south, there will most likely be some instability in this area and plenty of upper air dynamics. yes i know it is probabilistic. their outlooks just make it look like the severe weather will only track in the far southern US and i disagree with this

i think those outlooks are way too small and way too south. that really needs to extend way north also with advancing warm sector. the low pressure is heading into the great lakes. makes no sense at all what they are doing

Just now starting to take a real good look at this setup. The latest GFS shows sort of an elongated surface low from northern Missouri down into Oklahoma. Mid and upper winds are fairly backed over the northern portion of the warm sector, so unless we get a stronger northern (closed) low it doesn't look too good further north. As it stands now the best shot for supercell action will be further south where mid and upper winds are more veered. If the mid and upper level jet structure changes, or if the northern low becomes more dominant then this will all change. Still time for some tweaks.

Edited: for my first grade punctuation

the GFS always shows elongated lows. has been all year. and then the lows end up deepening way more than it showed. so i really am not trusting it. esp since it has been very inconsistent lately. the models are in the time frame where they tend to lose storms and get sloppy with the setup and then a few days later it looks really promising. only time can tell. i still think there will end up being a fairly large area of supercells. but the area of greatest tornado threat, too early to pin down

this forum is dead today. lol. i wanna chat severe weather. wake up!

Per Forbes on FB: MONDAY

Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak in central and east TX as far south as Austin and Houston, central and east OK, AR, northwest LA, extreme southeast KS, central and south MO, central and south IL, north, central, and southwest IN, northwest OH.

This is ALOT different than the SPC and what Henry's map is showing

Henry's map for outbreak next week

I really don't know what to expect from this outbreak anymore. I think his map needs to be shifted north. Both the SPC and him are so far south. This low is going to track a lot farther north than previous systems. There seems to be a lot of disagreement

2003 was actually following an El Nino, while this year is following a La Nina. Though by this point both years are closer to neutral.

this year has actually been a record La Nina....

Dr. Forbes doesn't use models. He is the Storm Master G.

Storm Master G

haha. yes he is. but trust me, he def uses models. impossible to forecast accurate without them

Hopefully the 00z runs don't diverge too greatly in their outcomes so that the SPC can delineate some sort of 4-8 outlook area.

exactly my thinking. the anticipation is killing me. lol. i want to know how far i got to travel after class to see some severe weather

Probably the GFS, its the hot hand right now. Although the Euro 12z has came in line with the GFS fairly nicely, so if that were to continue you would have inter/intramodel consistency from 2 of the best models.

i thought the 12z Euro was faster than GFS? i could have sworn i saw the low in extreme NE Iowa by 12z Tues on Euro. and the GFS had it in central iowa. i could be mistaken. new Euro will be out in a few hrs and 0z GFS is in the process of coming out

I could see the area he mentioned being very close to being correct as of right now.

I would really like to know what model he is basing that forecast off of

Reuters reports that Henry Margusity says that there could be up to 300 tornadoes the next two weeks from OK to Ohio. With this pattern he may not be exaggerating.

Yep! He just said that in an article on Accuweather on Tuesday. Pretty much non-stop outbreaks for a while now.

April 19th, 2003

Well it was def a La Nina year. Doesn't look as strong as this years is though. Thanks for the image

2003

Thank you! Enjoying the forums so far! This year is very similar to 2003. Locked in pattern of frequent storms and strong jet stream. Was 2003 a strong La Nina year?

Per Dr. Greg Forbes Facebook Page: Mon Apr 25. Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak in east half KS, central and east OK, central TX as far south as San Antonio, northeast TX, west and north AR, MO, southeast IA, IL, IN, south MI, west OH, extreme west KY.Dr. Forbes FB Page

Not sure what model he is favoring. Per GFS the low and warm front dont surge through my area till Tues. From the 12z run on GFS, the warm front has made it to south Wisconsin. I am in west central Illinois. the low is in central Iowa by 18z. I am hoping the system does slow down and times for Monday because I can't chase till after 3pm Tues. haha

hey guys! I just joined today! i am a member on accuweather forums to but this seems a lot more professional. i like it. but i totally agree, this system has the makings of a major outbreak. this is a large scale trough and is strongly negatively tilted. plenty of moisture will be able to advect well ahead of the trough. also with a neg tilt, more favorable shear and upper level dynamics will be more prone to cross into the warm sector. if the upper level forcing can pass over the cold front perpendicular, we can get more upper level turning. currently based on GFS, the turning looks to be confined to the lowest few kilometers. that is favorable for quick spin ups but for long track supercells and tornadoes you need deep rooted directional shear