LVblizzard

Nah…we’re probably seeing around a foot. Remember that the initial thump will be HEAVY. Even the warmest models give us 8 or 9 inches before any changeover.

It has more of a “doing things that don’t make sense” bias. And it only gets worse the longer it runs.

The phase looks like it will happen a bit later on this run. Both the northern and southern streams are hanging back a bit more.

12z HRRR had the same thing.

I mentioned February 2014 earlier in this thread. The UKMET essentially repeats that. Huge front end thump, a period of a light wintry mix, then the CCB swinging through at the end. Would be a widespread foot plus for the area.

UKMET is kind of strange in that it really blasts that primary into WV/PA but it doesn’t torch the mid levels as fast as the Canadian which does the same thing at the surface.

It’s not a bad model. But when it’s wrong it’s usually too amped, not the other way around.

That’s the big saving grace with this storm. The front end thump is a THUMP. Even the torchiest models have warning level snow before the changeover happens.

ICON is better. Primary is more south with confluence pressing down a little harder. Still won’t produce this subforum’s desired result but at least it’s not another step in the wrong direction.

Would be an ultra long duration event with how expansive the overrunning stuff is. I do think that eventually we’d mix if extrapolated but not before a really crazy thump of snow.

Something crazy I noticed is that the southern stream vortmax is near Midland/Odessa, TX at hour 84. At 78 hours at 18z, it was near Wichita, KS. Just a subtle 500 mile difference.

Not sure that it wouldn’t take the primary up there in the end. The low is farther south than the globals but it’s also much slower. Those could cancel each other out in the end.

I would think that’s not a good thing. If both of those pieces are slower, it gives more time for the confluence to move out and room for this thing to come pretty far north.

We really want the confluence to be stronger and the high to stick around for longer. That will give us the long duration blizzard we all want.

The northern stream feature on that Euro run was likely much different from what most guidance is showing now. It has really trended west in the last 2 days.