LVblizzard

About an inch of a sleety mess here. I just shoveled it and cleared off my car and it was not fun.

I’m a dasher and not even thinking about heading out tonight, even with a $4 per order promo. I drive a FWD sedan and it would struggle hard on this ice.

What a weird ass storm…still sleet here in Allentown but snow to the south near Pottstown and also well to the north in NY. This is like the icing on the cake of this mess. Just impossible to predict this stuff.

As wacky as the NAM can be sometimes, it really does a good job with these mid level warm noses more often than not.

Freezing drizzle for a bit in Allentown, but it has changed back to sleet under the heavier echoes.

All sleet in Allentown. That was quick.

Starting as graupel in Allentown.

I have a hard time trusting this given how far north the sleet reports are in upstate NY into Canada.

I’m going with 1-3” for Allentown but it’s basically a crapshoot with how volatile that warm nose is. This is the type of storm where the airport sees nothing but sleet which barely accumulates an inch, while 20 miles away in Bangor they get 4-5”.

Latest NAM has nearly 2” of pure sleet at ABE airport. I’d almost rather have rain…almost. Still better than the ice storm they’ll be getting south and west of Harrisburg.

This forecast is a real PITA. Toughest one in awhile and probably one of the top 5 most difficult since I started forecasting on my page 14 years ago.

And it did. Virtually no snow even for the Poconos. Amazing that we’re less than 24 hours out and there’s this much disagreement. This is the definition of a nowcast event.

0z HRRR has 6” in Allentown and 4” down to Philly. Not buying it though…I’ve seen this before where the HRRR severely underestimates mid-level warm air. The NAM is about to come out and I’m pretty confident it’ll show something entirely different.

If you buy how dry the NAMs are…I personally don’t. Sleet ratios are typically around 3:1 and I think we get at least an inch of pure sleet, along with up to an inch of snow.

Been awhile since we had a big sleet bomb…looks like that will be happening tomorrow night. Still doesn’t compare to V-Day 2007, the mother of all sleet storms.