USCAPEWEATHERAF

Southern Low is now dominant, the southern portion of the trough is most dominant now.  Lightning is firing off now over the Deep South.  Our coastal storm is now taking shape.  1006.5mb low now near Morehead City/Wilmington, NC region.  Best pressure falls are off to the Northeast.  High pressure staying firm south of Hudson Bay.  Temp is a cold 26F, calm winds, it is quite eerie outside with 100 percent cloud cover and ceiling is only 2000 feet.  Humidity is still not quite 70 percent.  Bands of light snow are to the southwest of MVY, and BID is not reporting any snow hitting the ground.  Dry air presently winning the battle until that coastal storm starts to deepen a bit more rapidly.  I will be awake around 5:30 am. 

01z HRRR was most ideal for SE Zones, including the Cape, ACK was turning to rain at hour 18.

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

TWC forecasting 3-5" for Boston.  I guess they are riding the old GFS, CMC and the Ukie, and giving zero play to the PARA, the NAM, even the 12z and18z Euro, among others like HRRR and RAP.  Don't get it.

The models in general are focusing their energy on the northern upper low which has been decaying the last several hours, the surface low has filled and is the same pressure as the southern low.  The two surface centers are in different modes of intensification and weakening processes.  The low you want to focus on is the strengthening low and that low is focused along the coastline of SE South Carolina with the previous pressure falls favoring southeast of the Cape Hatteras region.  Also the lowest pressure readings are in the 1007.0-1007.9mb range which is from Myrtle Beach to Charleston, SC at this hour.  Also the high over near Hudson Bay, Canada is not weakening.

10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Traditionally a good sign, IMO.

Water vapor imagery shows us a large upper level disturbance over Tennessee right now that is pivoting along the base of the large long wave trough.  This energy is pushing the coastal low off of the SC coastline and allow it to rapidly intensify.  I believe the models have been too focused on the northern upper low that is decaying rapidly now over Northern IN and OH and will allow the southern portion of the upper trough to spark coastal development in the southern low.  Also perhaps why the precip might be more progressive than originally thought.  At least initially until the southern low takes over.  Lightning is igniting with the energy at the base of the upper trough, not with the northern portion.  Therefore the imagery shows why a colder scenario could unfold further down the road and not focus on the warmer guidance.  Although, I will probably rain no matter what.

this storm looks to be arriving a bit faster than modeled.  I mean there is banding now just southwest of the Vineyard.

Just now, PhineasC said:

ICON cut back across the board a little too, FWIW. It seems we are narrowing the goalposts now to something good but not great.

ICON is not the model I want to trust in any scenario

Best pressure falls/rise couple is favoring the surface low development over SE Coastal South Carolina.

Just now, Greg said:

It was my area that got nothing

Ocean effect snow showers developing in the northerly surface flow.  Should see a few snow showers tonight and tomorrow morning.

Right now, the difference between a SEMA, RI Jackpot zone versus the current modeling of a NE PA jackpot potential evolution is a disturbance in the northern stream that phases in the backside (west side) of the long wave trough centered over PA/OH.  As the trough enters the western Atlantic and the Gulf Stream, this energy phases in the backside and in turn allows the H5 low to close off sooner and further southwest.  If for some reason this disturbance is delayed in some fashion, the H5 does not close off until off the coast of NJ and therefore the warming and the dry slot and the occlusion does not happen as fast or as soon and is further northeast.  Again, just a minor detail that could have dramatic consequences.

Well I am set, 3-5" of snow with a ton of rain, making the ground sloppy and turning to flurries on WED.  Man this wonderful jack of a winter is being so awesome.

Man I am just going to expect rain and 45 F temperatures!  Good luck everyone west of I-95

The OES band materialized but the heaviest banding stayed offshore.  Another in the bust column

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

I'll be 36 and rain, if it's any consolation. 

That is bad too

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

On the Cape, when it sucks, it sucks hard. 

 

Yeah it does

I love 45F marine influenced easterly winds and heavy rain during the heart of winter season.  Man the coastline is awesome!

I just love this winter, we cannot get a few inches of arctic sand, nope, we got a dusting of arctic blowing sand.  And its cold as heck here and we have no benefit of a significant snowfall.  Nope and now Monday and Tuesday looks like an occluded mess of a system that rains on Cape Cod with a temperature of 45F.  Man this winter is filled with bad outcomes and yet I am one inch from last year's total, 9.5" (8.5" YTD)
 

freaking garbage, the band offshore likely caused enough subsidence around it to cut off any potential additional snowfall to its west and south.  I got a dusting of wind blown arctic sand.  And next week's nor'easter won't be intense enough or cold enough for big snows, and instead I rain at 45F

Band will continue to intensify as it moves southward as surface frontogenesis increases in intensity.  VIS down to 0.75 miles for CHH.

1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Leaving for brewster in a few hrs

should leave now, the band is coming through in the next few hours

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Dim sun at home.

Ocean effect snow showers from time to time, sometimes a bit heavier.  Main band is now miles from my area.  Intensifying as it heads southwestward.  Is KBOS snowing yet?

Just now, HimoorWx said:

Since I am actually on the surface, not above, I have nothing to observe except some filtered sun thru the clouds and a temperature of 17F.  Oh yeah, the birds and squirrels are hungry today and mobbing our feeders.  Those are my observations.

You know what I meant

Where are the observations from everyone, it is snowing on the South and North Shore at least above the surface.  This is an impressive band of snow incoming!

9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Incoming for the elbow.

Yep, Bob, that upper low is now south of ACK and MVY.  The cold cloud tops are moving southwestward and now over the Cape.  Delat Ts approaching +26 to +28C

Wow, delta ts approaching +28C