USCAPEWEATHERAF

Amounts I expect for the next 72 hours:

CHH (8.9")

PVC (11.1")

HYA (5.1")

FMH (2.3")

MVY (1.1")

ACK (4.5")

EWB (2.1")

5.5" in Falmouth is probably true given they were in the most persistent bands last night of moderate snowfall.  

On 1/25/2021 at 8:04 PM, Go Kart Mozart said:

If you get a north wind with the 510dm lobe overhead, you can do quite well.  No low level inversion layer.

yeah models are not showing an inversion.  A 510 dm low over head does quite well for us!

NWS is not buying the norlun trough impacting the Cape.  They believe it is offshore.  NAM and 3km NAM, RGEM all bring blizzard conditions to the Cape and ACK.  Winds approach 50mph in gusts on Friday with heavy snow band moving through the region!

1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I spy oes starting

??????

21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What the heck is in your water supply 

Its a secret

00z NAM snows in CHH from Thursday morning into Friday evening, brings over .6" of QPF, and with intense snowfall rates and lift in the DGZ over -40 microbars of omega, we could be talking 12"+ in a short period of time

Just now, dendrite said:

lol

I have a hard time reading these soundings, what is funny about it Dendrite?

Just now, dendrite said:

Wish we could slow that trough down...goes from coastal ME to south of James in like 6-9hrs.

We need the parent upper low at H5 to slow down and drag near NYC and then south of LI and over the Benchmark for this to mean anything more than a 6 hour period.

00z NAM blizzard potential on the Cape Thursday night into Friday and then backend ocean effect band on Saturday if all goes right!

the back edge banding near the Vineyard is producing moderate snows and visibilities near 0.50 sm

2" of snow on the ground, 32F temp, poor snow growth!

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that was impressive for the south shore late tomorrow night/early Thursday. 

That is just an ocean enhanced snow event produced by an inverted trough, not associated with the large upper low over Ontario, these two are separate entities!  

32F temp, 1" of snow now, bands going in and out!  I thought we would have more, but snow growth disappeared around 6:00 pm.

That band over FMH is likely producing an inch/an hour maybe two an hour.

Started to flurry around 4:26 pm and then bam moderate snows, ground is covered now!  It started sticking right away!

18z NAM tugs the upper low to the southwest a bit this run at hour 72 compared to 78 12z run.  This time the upper low goes as far southwest as south of Montauk, NY.  My guess is the upper low will trend as far southwest as 40N: 72.5W

KFMH (Falmouth, MA) visibility near 0.50 sm moderate snow SN

12z EURO is really keying on an OES band between 18z Thursday and 12z Friday, out to hour 60 on pivotalweather

Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

I'm going to assume this is in the fraud five because it should be

Nope ULL are legit

Man, there could be a period of legit blizzard conditions if the CMC and RGEM are correct and the secondary low swings southward from the Gulf of Maine and off the west coast of Nova Scotia, Canada.  We would obviously enjoy that with a band of intense snow swinging through!

Models are showing a two day period where the 850mb temps over CHH are below -10C

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Already 36 here. Will need to wetbulb.

Yeah it is 36 here too, but our dew point is 26F

12z GEM and 12z RGEM both bring over 1" of QPF to the Cape

Models are leaning towards that secondary low tracking further west, the 12z GFS is off compared to the others