USCAPEWEATHERAF

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

You are looking good for this one Jimmy 

Yeah white rain

Just now, JC-CT said:

Well it also isn't an occluded POS so there are pros and cons

The biggest difference, is that the best banding will occur in our region given that it is undergoing its most explosive deepening period as it passes to the south and east of ACK.

1 minute ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Shame this thing is hauling ass. This thing is juiced and could be dropping prolific amounts if it wasn't in a fast flow and slowed down for an extra 6-12 hours.

After the last debacle on the immediate coast on Monday, I'll be fully satisfied with 6"-8".

The thing is, this storm can offset its speed by strengthening quicker.  It will give the feel of slowing down, but in reality it is still moving, 15 hours instead of 12 or 9.  There is still a large difference between a 990mb low and a 979mb low on the benchmark.

Hey Jerry, big 8-16" swath from SE CT to BOS points southeast, with the higher amounts over the Cape.

3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I thought everyone or most were expecting it to go SE for a couple of runs before it comes back NW?

No, we were expecting a Benchmark track this whole time, it isn't coming fifty miles west of the benchmark.

Just now, JKEisMan said:

HREF looks pretty good for most of SNE.

They really are

The 3 KM collocates extreme upper level divergence along with an intense jet streak over the Maritimes of Canada right as the storm takes its explosive deepening route.  The explosive deepening occurs at the same time the shortwave goes negative tilted, and there is a chance our surface low gets a tad stronger in future runs throughout Saturday.  Convection is likely a contributor.  As the low reaches the SC and NC coasts it begins to interact with the baroclinic natural boundary with the Gulf Stream and continental polar air mass over the interior of Mid-Atlantic States.  This boundary spells the deep maritime instability and warmth, with the polar air mass over to the northwest of the boundary.  This is when the Gulf Stream can play tricks on the HIRES models and Global Models with a natural warm front taking place as the surface low emerges off the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  Honestly a 978mb at the benchmark is still plausible.

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

I was going to post during the 12z runs and never did for 18z ones, but as Scott alluded to a little while ago, there does look to be some convective nature to this that may bring some intense banding and thunder snow potential.

 

Please

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

MAULed

70-80mph gusts over the Cape Cod National Seashore and coastal waters.  Damn!  And the tamer gusts will be 60-70mph.

NAM and 3KM NAM are silly, the NAM is bit less intense with the surface low while the 3KM is 12 mb stronger on the benchmark.  Dynamic cooling takes over and that is why it snows with the exception maybe ACK throughout the entire duration which is only 12 hours.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM hitting the sauce early.

that shortwave down south really turns the corner and that amplifies everything downstream.  I have fear we taint if it ticks any closer to ACK then the 3 KM NAM track.  The more intense the surface low, the further east it has to be for the Cape not to taint, or mix.

I am sorry this isn't changing or mixing north of ACK.

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Almost rain to LI.

Rain likely kissing ACK at hour 48, huge warm front from 925-700mb just south of the Islands at hour 48, very tight thermal packing and gradient, likely intense lift and heavy snow band.

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

James is screaming 

I don't look at snow maps

8-16" is the range right now for the Cape and Islands

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Lololol james. What model.are.you hugging? I could also say I am getting between 12-15" using the NAM. But.. All other models are different. Same goes for you. Just trying to keep it real for ya man. 

GFS, NMA 12km, NAM 3KM, CMC, RGEM, UKMET, and ...

12-18" seems possible at this moment in time for the Cape and Islands, I am not 100 percent confident yet, the 12z EURO will aide in confidence one way or the other.  12z models came in zonked compared to the 00z pedestrian garbage.  6-12" from the Canal to the I-95 corridor and then 3-6" to the CT River and almost nothing west of there.

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

And then there's the RPM which rips the storm up through ginxy's BY and into E MA.

That is a garbage model, so are the SREFs

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Someone could pull a foot in that look I think... maybe your area?

If somehow the low gets below 989mb before reaching the benchmark, there is a good chance a foot plus occurs for someone in the SE MA and RI region on Sunday.  That FRONTO band is impressive, omega is elite in the DG zone.

Just now, dryslot said:

That don't matter, Its the overall pattern for the whole board there James.

We already knew that the eastern areas were favored this go around, especially the further southeast one is located in the region.

Just now, dryslot said:

That don't matter, Its the overall pattern for the whole board there James.

It is much better overall for the region dryslot

Just now, dryslot said:

You guys looking at the same Nam run i am??   lol

WE aren't in your area

The NAM seems slower overall.

12z NAM is definitely more amped from the previous two runs.  A different trend in the other direction.  This might be due to sampling better, but I will wait until the 00z runs tonight to see if the new data changes anything.  Right now, it would be nice to trend towards a benchmark track below 990mb.

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

She gone.

Obviously some sampling happened before these runs that’s causing these changes... everything got worse.

The sampling wont make a difference until 00z Saturday runs Friday night.  There is nothing going on right now to change them, they are just going back and forth,