USCAPEWEATHERAF

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Imagine if had snowed about 20 minutes sooner...the dawn could have awakened to 3 feet!!!

That was my fault, I meant to ask if anyone was seeing snow in western CT.  The radar does show the upper levels moistening quickly especially over the South Coasts of CT, RI and SE MA, CC and Islands.  Our surface low is beginning to take shape off the Carolinas as pressure falls have increased to 1mb/hour.

Who opened the DEC 17/18th storm observation thread, we need them to do it again right now.  We should have an observation thread opened now, snow is overspreading western CT.

00z UKMET is robust, I am liking the trends tonight, exception being the 12 km NAM.

According to the tilt of the KBOX radar, it is snowing above 100 meters.

00z GFS still about 6-12 hours too late with the best intensification.  Storm absolutely bombs out too far east.

George001 reminds me of Roger from Rhode Island, he appeared on the forum right before Jan 15 struck.

With the 00z 12 km NAM the only one out to lunch this cycle, we can call it the 00z outlier camp at this point.  Not only did the 00z ICON increase precip, it increased it by almost double for the region, and especially for the Cape and Islands.

I think upper Barnstable county and Plymouth coastal areas could see the most amounts, and also along the CT/MA border and NW RI.  I think a swath of 8-12" occurs in these areas, and perhaps an area of 12-18" across coastal PYM, especially where ocean effect snows enhance the totals.  Also, the Cape and Islands could see moisture enhancement throughout the day and as the surface low takes its time developing.  Again, winds will be minimal.

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had a general 5-10".

yeah and 1-3" turning to rain

I am not sold on this prolonged like event the 00z runs that have come in so far are showing, I will be sold when it is snowing outside on Thursday and my temp is below 29F

Potential exists for a long duration snow event, whether or not it will mean a lot of snow versus a moderate event will be determined by storm track in proximity to benchmark.

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26 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s true...forgot sema was porked. Hopefully you folks can make up for it with one of those late blooming se specials.

I am waiting for a storm where I get 36" and the rest of SNE gets 24-12" from east to west and I Jackpot.. Again it is rare enough to get a big storm all snow here.

Huge plume of moisture to the southwest of the Islands.  This area of moisture is being spearheaded by an intense area of surface to 925mb frontogenesis on the northeast periphery of a surface low that is developing south of Long Island.  It appears the best guidance in terms of development and track of surface low are the EURO/UKMET/GFS and RGEM models.  2-4" isolated 5-6" amounts in best banding.  I originally thought yesterday it would track close enough to the Islands where the area would turn to rain, however, models have moved southward with the track and therefore the best banding is in two regions, one over central CT and MA and northern RI while the better moisture plume is over and southwest of the Islands of the South Coast. of MA, RI and CT.  

Harwich, MA (5.5") total snow accumulation W.E. had to be at least 1.25".  It was a dense and heavy wet snow that is already melting.  Temp with a high of 41F, and a low of 31F.  Rain started just after 10:00 am and changed over to snow around 12:30 pm.  Snow ended just before 8:00 pm.

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

total so far?

last measured 3.2"

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

how did james do @USCAPEWEATHERAF

not as well as I would have liked

Will, I am guess we are just outside the best lift in the band overhead and therefore our snow growth is poor for a 30-40 dbz band overhead.  I am a bit disappointed with the results to this point.  As I said that in my mind, the radar begun to show the band to pivot from the NE to SW orientation to the N to S orientation.  I believe ocean enhancement is occurring within the banding.  Scott, if we had the traditional high to the north, this would have been a 15-20 inch event even with the speed of movement.

Man I am going to bust high on the Cape if we do not get better lift right now.  I do not understand given the best banding is over my area, but yet we are in light snow.

1 minute ago, HalloweenGale said:

You're not missing much.

How much snow do you have?  Is it snowing hard?

3 minutes ago, HalloweenGale said:

The part of 28 I live on has a nice curve with a hill (people are driving waaay too fast). The Breakfast Room looks dead. Can barely see Cuffy's out the back window.

I know what you are talking about.  Haven't been that way since the pandemic struck!

Just now, HalloweenGale said:

How's your wind? It's favoring the NNE here. 28 has been plowed, but it's an uphill battle.

They are plowing 28 here in Harwich.  31F temp right now, N to NE wind at times.

Freaking MVY ASOS obs site showing FOG and 0.25 sm for vis, I am guessing the site is mistaking the intense heavy snow for fog.

2 minutes ago, HalloweenGale said:

Nice band coming our way.

Certainly is, its a mega band