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USCAPEWEATHERAF

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  2. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Latest models in agreement for up to 8" snowfall amounts for the south coast of CT, RI and SE MA tomorrow night into Monday.  Heaviest snows appear to occur between 12 am-midnight Monday to 12 pm noon time Monday for most of Southern New England.  Coastal low development, secondary low potentially stronger than modeled currently could become a bigger impactful storm in future runs where 10" amounts could become possible, but right now, not smart to forecast over 8" of snow in bands.  One band appears to develop over the VT/NH/MA border from the I90 pike northward and then I90 pike southward another strong band of lift in the DGZ could produce snowfall rates of 1"+/hour.  Winds should not be much of an impact until later Monday afternoon as the secondary low bombs out over the open ocean waters as it will take 24-36 hours from 1000mb to 950mb over and east of New Foundland, Canada.  Right now, the potential is this storm is strongest of the winter for the region.

  3. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Right now the pattern supports a cold and snowy regime with the PNA staying positive throughout the month, while the NAO stays positive, which means a rather progressive regime stays in place and we will likely see an oscillating AO pattern which produces some polar vortex lobes of energy to phase into the southern stream disturbances and that is how we get our nor'easters.  I am still suspect thinking on the Monday storm, right now models have a second piece of energy phasing into the eastern US troughing just as the cold front tries to clear the New England coastline.  NAM is west with the frontal zone and therefore the track of the surface low, while the GFS/CMC are further offshore with the secondary low.  EURO somewhere offshore as well, but this model has done absolutely nothing but kill itself in this range, which is 48 hours out.  Stay tuned, I think Monday event could trend better for South Coast of New England including the Cape and Islands.
  6. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The forecast for snow and cold looks dim the next 10 days, however beyond that time period, looks to the first real chance at a snowy and cold regime over New England and at least as far south as the 38N latitude line.  Anyone south of that latitude needs to wait until further into January time frame, but for those of us north of that latitude, the pattern change is being seen by most of the guidance after day 7-9 time frame, it looks like after December 4th an arctic front swings through the Northeastern USA states and brings a return of true arctic air and snow could be a possibility.  Stay tuned!  Right now it looks like a 60% chance at seeing at least 2 snowstorms, while a 40% chance exists that we see suppression depression.
  7. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Models are beginning to show an area of focused vorticity rounding the base of neutral to negatively tilted northern branch of the jet stream trough.  Now, energy is over the central North Pacific south of the Aleutian Islands which means the energy is not being sampled properly at this time.  However, multi model consensus is beginning to show prudent signs that this trough will be energizing as it moves through which far more productive than a trough that is weakening instead.  We have the right trends going as the system ignites over the extremely warm waters relative to average norms for November 30th.  While the warm waters are a concern at times, this system will not be driving southeast winds, so the area should remain in a cold environment, enough for snow, I have no idea.  Right now, the threat has begun to emerge for Friday December 5th!
  8. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The first moderate snowstorm of the fall season and winter season comes for Tuesday into Wednesday, October 23-24th, 2018 from Caribou, ME CWA northwestward into the mountains of NW Maine, where up to 8" is possible, and forecasted by the models.  I have my first snowfall map this year posted in the NNE fall thread and I will post below.  An arctic jet will come southeastward during the late weekend into the early weekdays of the next few days.  As it hits the SE New England coastline a surface low will develop and rapidly deepen moving NNEward towards eastern ME causing a blossoming area of precip and snow to the northwest of the track of the surface low as it taps the arctic jet which closes off at H5 over eastern ME causing extreme deepening of the surface low as it moves NNEward.  This low will bring rain to eastern New England with an area of blossoming heavy precip as it tracks northward.  This could be a sign of an active New England snowfall this winter season, especially favoring eastern MA, NH and ME.

  9. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Below is the forecasted sounding from the 18z GFS for 111 hours out, which is around Wednesday afternoon.  This event for Ocean Effect Snows and inverted trough mix could be quite prolific, like the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario events, why, according to the model, we have a lot of moisture present, NNE winds present from 850mb to surface, 850mb temps dropping below -16C, SSTs around +8-9C, leading to 850mb to surface differentials around +25C leading to high instability, inversion heights near 700mb which mean the surface to 700mb is highly moist as NNE winds favor that environment with dry air gone Cape Cod from Chatham to Plymouth, MA could see high snowfall totals.  Ocean induced CAPE values likely to be higher than normal, and normal CAPE values should be around .18 sufficient for the salt nucleus.  DGZ near the ground, with lift inside around -12 to -18 units.  I favor locations such as Plymouth, Barnstable and Nantucket counties for snow accumulations.  Updates will continue to come.

  10. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Today, I have been sifting through the data and the guidance as of the 00z runs 10/3 and they are showing me the signs towards winter are upon us.  New England weather is rather volatile the further we get from the summer and we get deeper into the season of Fall and then winter.  As the holidays approach we are reminded how lucky we have been to live life as long as we have, and to have people who care about us in this world.  As the holidays approach we are reminded of this constantly.  As winter approaches abruptly and the only way Nature knows how, we get warning signs that the weather machine is ready to change gears and this is what I am seeing on the guidance this morning.  There is rather strong agreement that a clipper will develop a secondary low off the coast of Cape Cod and Nantucket (ACK) as we head into the weekend.  This system will carry a cold air mass on the north side and then northwest side and bring a change of temperatures to the region from the backside winds.  Before that happens, we will experience spotty rain, until you are north of Concord, NH where rain will become more steady and then changeover to snow as one heads into the mountains of northern NH/VT/ME and the mountains of this region in the weekend.  Saturday will be rather raw and spot showers at times, and then Sunday will be quite beautiful and rather chilly compared to what the last few days have given us.  
    Also, another sign of the change in seasons is the rather rapid build-up of cold deep arctic air masses into northern Canada and then into the central and southern Canadian Prairies.  This will begin to dive into the northern third of the US, above 40N from MT to ME as we head into the mid-month period and then the end of the month and beyond.  Rather active weather pattern will begin to impact the US as multiple troughs will swing through the northern tier, this is rather common in neutral ENSO patterns.  I will have another update after the 12z EURO if something changes in the guidance.
  11. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    While it seems impossible to ignore, the models are clearing showing signs of winter arriving earlier than the past several winters of New England.  Snow could fall as early as next week across the lower Southern Plains of OK, KS, and TX and then move into New England as the southern stream becomes active and perhaps develop with the arctic stream to phase and develop a significant nor'easter with cold temperatures over the region.  Would like to see more and better model support over the next two weeks to get better confidence with this idea.  For now, we will have a succession of rainstorms impacting the Northeastern US with flooding rains and severe weather this weekend as an upper-level trough tilts to the negative position as it moves through New England.  This will determine the potential for a lot of wind on the coastline as the high-resolution models point to a significant wind event.  Stay tuned!  This winter will get exciting.
  15. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    First snow of the season looks to be supported by most of the guidance we use for forecasting our weather across the CONUS.  Our weather in New England this time of year gets particularly colder as we venture to the beginning of November through the end of March, this time period is notorious for heavy snowstorms, more so towards DEC through FEB sometimes including NOV and MAR.  This winter supports a La Nina pattern, although weak, but present should feature more of a negative PNA and positive NAO, but you never know how these blocks of the atmosphere will behave.  We could have our first widespread snowstorm either NOV 9-11 or NOV 14-16th of this upcoming two week period as the PV (polar vortex) enters our side of the hemisphere and tries to get involved in our air masses from Canada and the Arctic Circle.  We are entering the season for explosive nor'easters in the North Atlantic/Arctic region which lends us to believe that cold air is indeed present on our side of the hemisphere, now this upcoming week from Thursday Nov 2nd to Nov 9th will be a step down period from modestly warm weather tomorrow through the weekend to appreciably colder and perhaps an arctic chill to the air will be felt next weekend, this should set the stage for our first rain/snow storm.  Stay tuned!
  18. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    A major winter storm is pegged to strike the Central US plains and the Central to western Great Lakes region later Sunday night through Tuesday of next week.  This is all a part of a large weather system powered by a central US trough, anchored by a large upper-level low-pressure center.  Large widespread snow amounts of 10-12" is possible especially in banding from MO to IL to MI.  More widespread amounts of 3-6" is likely in the region either side of the 10-12" isolated 14".  The system should bring potential rain later this week to New England and snow to the mountains of western ME and NH.
  20. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Have a happy New Year's eve of celebration and remembering our past year and last decade of greatness and welcome in a New Year and a new Decade of fun, love, health and wealth to everyone and their family.  Love you all.  Hope to a snowy winter ahead.
  25. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    This morning, I am going to share with you why a snow event is possible and not yet certain....
    Why it is possible...
    NAO is in transition still positive but diving towards neutral slowing duration of the precipitation and storm's movement based upon phasing and capture potential at H5
    PNA/EPO coupled ridging over the western CONUS could lead to an earlier phase potential as the northern stream disturbance is shoved southward across the Midwest and OH Valley regions allowing a cold infusion of air before the storm reaches our latitude.
    -AO transition, as the EPO/PNA ridge builds poleward and allows the northern stream to dig southward across the central US, this also builds into the western Arctic Circle and disrupts the Polar Vortex and the +AO domain and turns towards a -AO domain allowing the arctic jet to become involved in the weather next week producing another chance at a storm or two
    Again questions remain in the details and eventual A)/NAO domains, we will get help with that in the next 24 hours.
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