USCAPEWEATHERAF

Honestly, that airmass over SNE as the storm arrives is no joke. This is the type of setup that will produce a massive ocean enhanced assist for the South Shore and Cape and Islands. Someone could see much higher amounts than the average county in SNE. I do not think the high that strong and that close to NNE will allow the warmer air to win out. Even the 12z EURO just now shows a massive area of -10C or lower air just over Cape Cod Bay and BOS. That will not allow the boundary layer to warm. Honestly, the models are all over the place with the thermals for tomorrow's snow event, and that is likely given the lack of cold air present ahead of time, but the WED/THU event has the cold air entrenched into the region. Someone in the favorable OES belt on NE winds, could see 24" by Friday morning!

Why is the UKMET show a lot less snow for the Cape and Islands?

I would say wait until Sunday night's 00z runs, because that is when the entire area of energy will be sampled and the models have a more accurate depiction of the storm at hand!

Surface high does not impact the track of the surface low, the mid-levels impact storm track!

of course I am a bit excited. We have a shot at our first widespread SNE event in a while!

What are you talking about? A -NAO can easily shunt storms to our south. I am not saying this one in particular, I am saying strong -NAOs in general have the ability to shunt southward. SNE does not need a strong -NAO for a KU event to unfold. However, I do not think the WED/THUR storm is only a 12-15 hour storm. The big storms have a tendency to trend more dynamic within the four day window as well as trend longer in duration. We have some time before the energy is completed sampled, about until 00z/ DEC 14th.

Haha, yeah nonsense. It is also the synoptic pattern that can shunt everything to the south like 2009-2010

Woah, I did not say the block is the reason why it will be a long duration storm. The trough goes negative, and the H5 trough closes off into an upper low. The upper low captures the surface low prolonging the event even further. Models could trend to a stronger shortwave given that the trough that is the main energy for the storm is still off the west coast and is just beginning to come ashore. Again, sampling matters when it comes to the exact track of the surface low and H5 features. Honestly, that is a massive upper level low over the NE Pacific Ocean off the WA coast.

The THURS storm? We have a huge -NAO block!

Now the WED NGHT - THUR storm threat looks like to be impacted by the block and therefore become a potential long duration snow event for SNE and the northern MID ATL!

Monday's storm could deliver quite a punch if the cold air moves in time to the coast and the precip waits another six hours. Like almost a partial phase would help us a bit! Models mostly have the low like stop intensifying as it travels from NJ to the benchmark, and then it intensifies explosively afterward. 00z NAM is different now, with the low intensifying before it reaches the benchmark and dumps a secondary QPF max near ACK and CHH! The speed and progressive nature, while intensification is taking place is a prohibitive to anything more substantial than significant snowfall potential!

Same here, I blew off most of my Spanish classes in High School

yes sir

Yeah I was told not to start one ever again!

SnowGoose, I think we should have a separate thread for the Monday event now. The only issue that system has for any potential accumulating snows is the temp profile. Does the cold front from tonight's system reach the coast and gets south of the islands in time before the precipitation begins on the Monday system. The upper shortwave over the Rockies right now is quite strong on Water Vapor imagery.

I believe there is enough space in timing of the two major shortwaves that it won't have much of an impact. The Monday system becomes a powerful low over Labrador no matter the intensity at the benchmark!

Someone other than myself should begin a threat on the Monday event

And Worcester's 36 didn't disparage my 32"

Not worried about the lack of probs for Cape Cod, because the ensembles do not handle the coastline well here at all when it comes to snow amounts!

Don't we all

Which one? The Monday system? I think the Thursday storm is all snow

WHY?

Juno was January 2015, in which I predicted that Cape Cod would stay all snow, and they did, I measured 32" in my front yard, the West Harwich spotter reported 30.5" total. NEMO was more of a mix with heavy rain and we had good backend snows with 17" total. NEMO was a CT special.

Maybe, or not!

For what?