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USCAPEWEATHERAF

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Everything posted by USCAPEWEATHERAF

  1. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    00z NAM would produce rain for the Cape!
  2. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Oh, just a short term nowcast bit of information, the storm over MS and the Southeast US is more amplified than modeled.
  3. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    NAM closes off the H5 trough at 84 hours. That is why the low is so far north but the surface low does not intensify much at all!
  4. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    18z EURO shows us how we can get a KU out of this synoptic scale pattern
  5. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    I hate Ray's map, because I am biased to the Cape. However, overall it looks in line with the latest guidance, except for the GFS
  6. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    For me the last two plus winters!
  7. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    I agree Ray, as long as the lift is right in the DG zone at the time of strongest lift (-12 to -18C) zone for a good 12 hours, it does not matter how long the duration is of light snow!
  8. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The clear signal on the model as a consensus is that there will be intense lift in the DG zone for a bit, and the SSTs are quite warm combined with 850mb temps near -10 to -12C, we are talking about a tremendous moisture feed from the northeast. The ocean enhancement cannot be ignored with this system. The models will begin to show this impact within 24 hours of the onset of the snow, which is 72 hours from 00z tonight!
  9. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Its not happening even with that track!
  10. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    I thought that was this morning's
  11. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Thanks! Yeah before my lifetime, Cape Cod was a winter refuge. During my lifetime, since High School started, we have had some monsters, the JAN 05 Blizzard, the JAN 15 Blizzard, FEB 2013 Blizzard, JAN 2016 Blizzard, the FEB 2015 Blizzard, the DEC 2010 storm, and others!
  12. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The graphics has Chatham with 10.5 inches for WED/THU already!
  13. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Honestly, we will not know the future outcomes with more than 50/50 certainty until 12z runs tomorrow as a winter storm approaches the region!
  14. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Parts of west/central Maryland and Pennsylvania see upwards of 24" of snow on the 18z NAM through 84 hours.
  15. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Oh, where is the snow?
  16. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    what about the monster for Tuesday?
  17. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Look at the 700mb RH maps on the 18z NAM. The lift that develops over the entirety of SNE is amazeballs!
  18. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Our trailing shortwave is tending to slow down some and allows the lead shortwave to tilt negative and slow down its movement east. The 18z NAM seems to have the beginnings of a monster, like Jerry referenced!
  19. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    I do, the northern stream phases a bit early, while not a complete phase or anything large like that it does phase a bit at H5. Also the shortwave is more consolidated and the trailing shortwave is less intense and slower therefore less of an impact on the lead shortwave, aka our WED/THU storm!
  20. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    12z runs tomorrow
  21. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The Jan 2016 Blizzard was forecasted to give Cape Cod a sunny to cloudy day 24 hours out. Every six hour update, the NWS began forecasting more and more snowfall. I ended up with 15.5 inches of snow, which missed my top ten events of my 31 years of life. Top three events are all 24" plus, while top five is 18"
  22. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    To me the only thing that messes up a potential KU in this event is the trailing shortwave that enters the longwave trough as the storm gets going off the NC coastline and begins to track northward. The trailing northern stream shortwave dampens the trough as it goes negative tilt. This makes the trough less amplified and therefore more progressive. We can still get a major snowfall from this setup, it will just not be the near crippling potential that we saw a few days back.
  23. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    He is using negativity bias
  24. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Not me, coastal South Shore
  25. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    If the OES gets going there is no telling!
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