USCAPEWEATHERAF

Oh, where is the snow?

what about the monster for Tuesday?

Look at the 700mb RH maps on the 18z NAM. The lift that develops over the entirety of SNE is amazeballs!

Our trailing shortwave is tending to slow down some and allows the lead shortwave to tilt negative and slow down its movement east. The 18z NAM seems to have the beginnings of a monster, like Jerry referenced!

I do, the northern stream phases a bit early, while not a complete phase or anything large like that it does phase a bit at H5. Also the shortwave is more consolidated and the trailing shortwave is less intense and slower therefore less of an impact on the lead shortwave, aka our WED/THU storm!

12z runs tomorrow

The Jan 2016 Blizzard was forecasted to give Cape Cod a sunny to cloudy day 24 hours out. Every six hour update, the NWS began forecasting more and more snowfall. I ended up with 15.5 inches of snow, which missed my top ten events of my 31 years of life. Top three events are all 24" plus, while top five is 18"

To me the only thing that messes up a potential KU in this event is the trailing shortwave that enters the longwave trough as the storm gets going off the NC coastline and begins to track northward. The trailing northern stream shortwave dampens the trough as it goes negative tilt. This makes the trough less amplified and therefore more progressive. We can still get a major snowfall from this setup, it will just not be the near crippling potential that we saw a few days back.

He is using negativity bias

Not me, coastal South Shore

If the OES gets going there is no telling!

Honestly, that airmass over SNE as the storm arrives is no joke. This is the type of setup that will produce a massive ocean enhanced assist for the South Shore and Cape and Islands. Someone could see much higher amounts than the average county in SNE. I do not think the high that strong and that close to NNE will allow the warmer air to win out. Even the 12z EURO just now shows a massive area of -10C or lower air just over Cape Cod Bay and BOS. That will not allow the boundary layer to warm. Honestly, the models are all over the place with the thermals for tomorrow's snow event, and that is likely given the lack of cold air present ahead of time, but the WED/THU event has the cold air entrenched into the region. Someone in the favorable OES belt on NE winds, could see 24" by Friday morning!

Why is the UKMET show a lot less snow for the Cape and Islands?

I would say wait until Sunday night's 00z runs, because that is when the entire area of energy will be sampled and the models have a more accurate depiction of the storm at hand!

Surface high does not impact the track of the surface low, the mid-levels impact storm track!

of course I am a bit excited. We have a shot at our first widespread SNE event in a while!

What are you talking about? A -NAO can easily shunt storms to our south. I am not saying this one in particular, I am saying strong -NAOs in general have the ability to shunt southward. SNE does not need a strong -NAO for a KU event to unfold. However, I do not think the WED/THUR storm is only a 12-15 hour storm. The big storms have a tendency to trend more dynamic within the four day window as well as trend longer in duration. We have some time before the energy is completed sampled, about until 00z/ DEC 14th.

Haha, yeah nonsense. It is also the synoptic pattern that can shunt everything to the south like 2009-2010

Woah, I did not say the block is the reason why it will be a long duration storm. The trough goes negative, and the H5 trough closes off into an upper low. The upper low captures the surface low prolonging the event even further. Models could trend to a stronger shortwave given that the trough that is the main energy for the storm is still off the west coast and is just beginning to come ashore. Again, sampling matters when it comes to the exact track of the surface low and H5 features. Honestly, that is a massive upper level low over the NE Pacific Ocean off the WA coast.

The THURS storm? We have a huge -NAO block!

Now the WED NGHT - THUR storm threat looks like to be impacted by the block and therefore become a potential long duration snow event for SNE and the northern MID ATL!

Monday's storm could deliver quite a punch if the cold air moves in time to the coast and the precip waits another six hours. Like almost a partial phase would help us a bit! Models mostly have the low like stop intensifying as it travels from NJ to the benchmark, and then it intensifies explosively afterward. 00z NAM is different now, with the low intensifying before it reaches the benchmark and dumps a secondary QPF max near ACK and CHH! The speed and progressive nature, while intensification is taking place is a prohibitive to anything more substantial than significant snowfall potential!

Same here, I blew off most of my Spanish classes in High School

yes sir

Yeah I was told not to start one ever again!