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USCAPEWEATHERAF

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  1. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The next seven to nine days the pattern supports a rathe benign and quiet week, especially from this weekend through next Friday, with temps moderating through the lower 40s for highs support a rather just below average temperatures for early winter and late December period.  Averages are rather low this time of the year and into the January into March period for the next year.  The 2020 New Year are supportive of a rather snowy period.  Latest models in the medium to long range support a reload of cold air into the Arctic and then unleashed into Canada and then the US.  End of the month models are showing several coastal storm threats.  Time will tell, the NAO goes negative, the PNA goes positive and the AO goes negative.  That supports highly anomalous cold in the eastern CONUS and a high likelihood of snow.  Time will tell!
  3. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Good evening folks, 
    This is my latest blog entry and the first official entry on the potential Blizzard of 2018, or Storm of the Century potential on January 3-5th 2018.  The first image is water vapor imagery taken as of this hour, it represents the different ebs and flows in our country.  Also it currently has three disturbances that will impact our storm potential this week.  The arctic disturbance is circled over NW Canada in a pink dot, the second disturbance is in red, the Pacific shortwave and then the third is in green the sub-tropical jet which is already providing moisture and rains in TX and LA this evening and will enter the Gulf of Mexico in the overnight into the early morning hours.  This green dot disturbance will be the southern stream disturbance that gets carried northward as our storm develops by the next disturbance in the polar jet and the arctic jet.  These will be our catalysts towards a destructive nor'easter, perhaps with the intensity we have never witnessed south of the benchmark in history.  I believe the only way this system hits the benchmark head on as it tracks up the coastline is if the trough is more centered over or west of James Bay, Canada and recent runs have adjusted this direction.  So I am now saying the track officially of the storm should be between 25-75 miles east of the 40/70 benchmark location as a sub 960mb low, stronger than the Superstorm of 93, stronger than the Blizzard of 2017, stronger than the Blizzard of 2016. 2015 and more.  My second image is my snow map of impacts to the East Coast and potential snow accumulations of light. moderate and heavy.  And I highlighted in red where on the coast can expect blizzard conditions.


  4. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The last few days has brought some major swings in the overall five to ten day forecasts.  A few days ago the ten day was quite wet and crappy, but with the latest data influencing the latest changes, an Omega Blocking pattern has brought a period of amazing weather conditions for the foreseeable future in Southern New England.  Noticed greatly by a trough ridge trough pattern on an upper level map, an Omega block slows weather systems down and stalls them to the west, keeping any weather at home dry and clear.  Let's enjoy the next ten days  with sunshine and warmth as Summer is a month away.
  5. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Simply, forecasting the weather is never perfect.  In fact, the unpredictable nature of the weather is what fascinates those of us, who love the weather.  The extremes, the puzzles that nature provides.  What does allow a storm like Juno, NEMO, JONAS, or even Neptune form and impact us with such tremendous ferocity, I personally still put the Blizzard of 2005 ahead of JUNO, we received 35" of snow in my front yard from that storm.  Now what I want to discuss with the viewers is simply the overall synoptic landscape of the weather patterns evolving next week.  Right now the Saturday storm looks definite, and I would say we are at the 65% threshold that Cape Cod and SNE will receive a flooding rainstorm.  The phase of cold air and the sub-tropical moisture connection is lacking and therefore not a cause for concern.  The storm on Tuesday looks like at least a 55% probability for precipitation, question becomes, eventual track of the system.  Now, there is a caveat next week that could change the outcome of the Tuesday storm, or become a storm on its own.  A large piece of the Polar Vortex that moves south very slowly I might add, out of northern Canada and the Arctic Circle, which is why I know the arctic jet is present.  The 12z NAM and GFS have slightly altering scenarios at 84 hours, and that is as far as the NAM goes, so any further is pointless.  At 84 hours, the NAM is weaker and less amplified in the arctic jet over central/southern Canada.  The GFS is actually more amplified, but the southern energy is too far ahead of the arctic shortwave to have much of a chance to phase.  EURO is showing this energy as well, but the models are at odds at location and intensity of the shortwave and how it influences our phantom coastal around 100-120 hours out at this time.  Still a lot of details to try and iron out which brings us to the biggest potential of the season to date around the first few days of Christmas week.  Around the December 22-25th period, models have been hinting at a potential monster coastal nor'easter developing.  The details and the impact that it will happen have yet to be determined.  We have a lot of time left before that is even discussed more than at random at this time.  So for the timeline I have written below, our certainty is this weekend, this late afternoon into Saturday, a major rainstorm, BUF could see a foot of snow.  The further out in time, the more uncertain we are.  Thanks for reading.
    1.) Friday/Saturday December 13-14th, 2019 - rainstorm
    2.) Monday evening/Tuesday morning December 16-17th, 2019 - mixed precipitation event, mainly rain for Cape Cod
    3.) Wednesday potential coastal storm, not given yet, potential impacts snow and wind
    4.) Following Monday into Wednesday December 23-25th, 2019 - Super Storm type nor'easter, potential for all impacts.
  6. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    **Alert Level - Awareness!**
    Potential Nor'easter impending day 4 - given both uncertainty and time frame, this level is only for awareness.  Given unknown factors at play and will not know the extent of the systems at hand for the next 40 hours, we will not gain confidence until a better consensus develops and we get closer to the event period.  January 5th is the date for the nor'easter impact period.  We will know the most by 00z Saturday, Friday evening, 7 pm cycle.
    That is all for this moment, another alert level will be issued tomorrow around the same time, we will either continue alert level awareness or upgrade to potential.  The next update tomorrow evening.
  8. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    On day in 2005, the weather was at the most volatile point all season, October, month of the great Hurricane Wilma 2005.  I had a dream that would spark a journey I have been on for the last fourteen years.  In this dream, I saw the catastrophic end to humanity.  Whether or not it was a premonition or just simply a basic dream for a developing weather enthusiast in his adolescence, I don't know, but it sparked a creative monster within myself.  Struggling with family problems that latter turned into internal emotional distress later down the road, which end up costing my USAF experience to cut short, the weather was an outlet, an intellectual and emotional and a mental release from the reality I was facing within my developing maturation process as well as the developing family dynamics with four children between 15 and 6.  My family dynamics truly showed, that not one family ever escapes the torment that life brings on a daily basis.  Life torments us on  day to day regime.  It is how and what we decide to do in the face of that chaos that determines our future.  This novel series all came from a dream I had that one evening.
    The Awakening Dawn - novel one,  -  From Dawn Until Dusk - novel two,  - The End of the Awakening - novel three,  --
     The friends of Jack and Abi, Marie Givens and Michael Reed who are also dating each other, go on a tremendous journey that impacts their families, their friendships with each other, and the couples inter workings.  While their relationships are changing, natural disasters of epic proportions start to develop and impact humanity.  The first novel is about three catastrophic plus level hurricanes that make landfall on the US Coastline, East Coast and Gulf Coasts.  Hurricane Franklin, Gert and Humberto all reach catastrophic plus levels of 250mph or greater wind speeds sustained, and minimum central pressures of lower than 700mbs.  These massive beasts kill over 400,000 each.  The total loss of human life just in the US is around 1.7 million.  Elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean territory, over 300,000 additional lives were lost in the Turks and Caicos, Cuba, and the Bahamas.
    in the second novel, Jack and Abi begin their second chapter with their newly born child, Jaye is born into the world of chaos around them.  As newly appointed Joint Weather and Science Center now undergoing development of a new building in northern Florida, it is the combination of Climate Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, Storm Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, National Environmental Prediction Center and other NOAA/NWS services combined with Geological US Survey and other government run organizations regarding science.  With the temporary center in Norman, OK their new life has begun.  Across the Pacific Ocean, a massive geological eruption of magnetic/magma and energy occurs in the middle of the Philippines archipelago.  A combination or sequence of five massive and catastrophic 10.0 or greater magnitude earthquakes erupt from 50 miles east of Luzon, and the eruption line stretched to 50 miles west of Manila, Philippines.  Sarah Irving is lost in this disaster as is the other 98% of the 94 million people population.  The magnetic energetic pulse emanates towards Japan, erupting near Tokyo and into the city, Japan suffers about 96% of population loss.  These pulses head all the way to the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, where the biggest earthquake erupts at 12.5 magnitude about 25 miles east of San Juan, Puerto Rico.  When the energy pulse settles down, ending in the Mediterranean Sea, after several more massive and catastrophic quakes erupt the pulse dies in the mountains of Nepal near Mt Everest.  The maritime earthquakes caused massive breaks in the earth's crust, allowing very hot gases and magma to flow into the ocean floor and the waters.  Several of these quakes allowed the water near Puerto Rico and westward to the East Coast of the US and Gulf of Mexico to heat over 105 degrees Fahrenheit.  Oceanic cities and cities along the coasts of countries that relied heavily on the fish industry lost billions of pounds of fish due to the abnormal heating of the ocean water they lived within.  Dead fish began to litter the surface across the western Atlantic and western Pacific Oceans.  We end the novel with a native of Cuba seeing a patch of dead fish rise to the surface as the red sun sets in the background.
    in the third novel, the end of the Awakening, society has one choice, live to the end.  Catastrophic oceanic changes lead to changes in the atmospheric patterns across the western Hemisphere.  As the oceanic Sea Surface Temperatures have rose to 100+ and fish species have died off, humanity looks to other resources to feed the millions.  Then as a new monstrous threat is literally a few days away, the 53rd WRS Hurricane Hunters do routine missions and ready for the new hurricane season.  On june 11th, 2030, their mission into a newly designated disturbance, designated Invest 90-L the L is the symbol that the invest is in the Atlantic Ocean basin.  Flight USAF2411, led by new major of the USAF, the disturbance was nearing the East Coast of the US, but the Gulf Stream was heating all the way to 115F as far north as 42N: 70W locations allowing any disturbance to take advantage of the warmest recorded oceanic surface temperatures in this part of the Globe.  The same situations were occurring in the Pacific Ocean.  Throughout the hurricane season, a new bread of hurricanes developed due to the warmest temps of the ocean, called the Hyper Cane, dubbed so by Hurricane Specialist Dr. Kerry Emanuel who hypothesized that these monsters were likely back in the time of the dinosaurs, where the oceans were hit by asteroids allowing the ocean to heat to amazing temperatures.  12 of these storms developed, over 500 mph sustained winds, however, part of the theory was that given the intensity of these storms, they were likely extremely small, almost only 20 miles in diameter, but it is just a hypothesis.  Then on November 30th, the official last date of the hurricane season, NASA or the remains of the organization detected a 100 miles wide asteroid within three days of an impact on Earth.  The last three days, on earth, people were embracing each other and just waiting for the last stone thrown.  The end occurred on December 2nd, 2030, the massive 100 miles wide rock spilt the earth in half entering the core, and the core exploded and the earth blew apart into a gazillion pieces.
    The END! 
  9. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    50 degree temperatures for the first time on the Cape this winter season, were in the calendar/met Spring season which started on March 1st, but official spring begins on March 20th.  Today, Tuesday, March 9th, 2021 is the first time I recall Chatham, MA reaching 50F+ temperatures, and there was no nipping wind.  The winds are light out of the southwest, I do not feel fog will be an issue tonight as temps drop off as is during the Spring months.  Again, winter could spread its wings for a short unsustainable day or two, but nothing suggesting a three plus day period.  Honestly, I believe winter weather is gone for SNE this year until November, and our hurricane season could be quite active and violent.
  15. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Huge potential and yet very far away from happening.  We have a pattern characterized by a building +PNA, a budding -AO and a substantial -NAO block like pattern.  One issue in the pattern is the strongest PV like low is over the Canadian Maritimes near Nova Scotia and New Foundland, Canada.  This entity is causing a massive southern dislodge of a streak called confluence.  Confluence is the property of the atmosphere where the jets are coming together, like convergence.  This supports a strong area of surface high pressure, since convergence at mid to upper levels promotes sinking air to the surface, while divergence promote lift i.e. precipitation and moisture.  What we have hear are three systems influencing one another and mucking the other's potential.  We have an arctic jet vorticity maximum rounding the western circulation of the PV (50/50 low) into Northern and Central New England by 3 1/2 days out.  Models also have multiple southern stream disturbances over the Central Plains.  Now with several energetic systems in play, there is the question of timing and phasing.  Again, we will not know until within 18-24 hours from onset of precipitation.  Again, a lot to process.  
  16. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Subtle Adjustments can bring us from the dog pound to the Great White Hurricane!
    **2:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time Southern New England Weather Update**
    Simply put, the snow lovers across the region are at the mercy of the giant ridge over the Davis Straits and northern Canada territories.  The -NAO regime with a large 50/50 eastern Labrador vortex is currently running the weather pattern across the Eastern US.  It is dominating the weather scene.  Dry and cold arctic conditions we feel today are from a dominant northern stream where north westerlies at H5 are driving our weather.  The next few days will keep a cold and dry perhaps sunny regime over the region as clouds begin to infiltrate the South Coast of RI, CT and SE MA on Tuesday.  Light snows should begin to break out across western CT and should be shunted to the south thereafter with little if any impacts to the rest of the region.  This I can say with 60 percent confidence.
                The next stop is the 28/29th window in which a monster surface center will develop either off the Outer Banks of North Carolina, or the Delmarva peninsula.  We lack any confidence at this time to make a definitive forecast of any kind, whether it would be snow, rain, sunny skies or cold cloudy days.  We just have no confidence.  Seven-to-ten-day forecast is simple at this moment, highs in the mid 30-s along the Cape and Islands, and everywhere else below freezing for the next week until next weekend when a cutter could present itself if the block breaks down.  Again a lot of ifs and what’s until we get a better model consensus later down the road!
  17. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots 4:25 p.m. EST time on Sunday, November 24th, 2019 could feature a rather nasty weather day for football.  The game is going to be played at Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA.  A major coastal storm looks to track just west of the I95 corridor Saturday evening into Sunday night and could bring rather cool, rainy and windy weather.  Raw weather with temps in the mid-to-upper 40s.
  20. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Snowstorm threat has become slightly enhanced the last few cycles.  06z GFS went from .5" of QPF as snow next weekend to 1.7" of QPF as snow for the 18z GFS run.  The storm track is slowly becoming suppressed on the GFS, while the other models are spilt apart in their potential solutions.  We are still under six days away, and just over five days away from the impacts of the storm.  The first upper level vortexes are moving through by Wednesday with some mix of snow and rain showers.  SNE will see mostly rain drops Wednesday, otherwise known as travel day.  Thanksgiving Day looks cold and dry for the area.
  22. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Potential exists for Ocean Effect Snow bands to develop as an upper level low develops to the southwest of the region.  Now the evolution of said trough and upper level low remain in question as overall the guidance for 12z 12/06/2020 is still questioning this transition.  Newly updated water vapor imagery as I watch, shows the main energy that develops into the upper level closed low is still diving southward with no eastward motion.  This suggests it will try and phase with the southern stream system and create a formidable surface storm over the North and South Carolina piedmont region.  This low has two avenues of track, one to the ENE and off the coast with little fanfare, or two up the East Coast in more of a NNE track.  The latter performs a major impact event for eastern New England, while the former represents little impacts.  Ocean Effect Snows will only develop if the ocean storm tracks close enough to the region to veer the flow from an anticyclonic burst of westerly winds, to a more cyclonic burst of NNE to N winds across a very mild Gulf of Maine and Cape Cod Bay.  850mb temps which are found 2500 to 5000 feet above the surface of the ocean, dive into the -6 to -12C range for a good 36 hour period.  The winds veer to north-northeasterly at the same time and provide the necessary forcing for ocean effect cloud seeding and developing of snow showers.  Again any accumulations will be light!
  25. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Today's 12z model runs showed a good sign that tomorrow's potent storm system might spare the game weather tomorrow for the Patriots and Cowboys meeting.  Given the 20z game time kickoff they could be spared the heaviest rains and a few showers might move through after the final horn.  Game temps will be raw, and nasty outside, cloudy and maybe misting.  40s for temps.
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