Jump to content

USCAPEWEATHERAF

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,736

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Blog Entries posted by USCAPEWEATHERAF

  2. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    50 degree temperatures for the first time on the Cape this winter season, were in the calendar/met Spring season which started on March 1st, but official spring begins on March 20th.  Today, Tuesday, March 9th, 2021 is the first time I recall Chatham, MA reaching 50F+ temperatures, and there was no nipping wind.  The winds are light out of the southwest, I do not feel fog will be an issue tonight as temps drop off as is during the Spring months.  Again, winter could spread its wings for a short unsustainable day or two, but nothing suggesting a three plus day period.  Honestly, I believe winter weather is gone for SNE this year until November, and our hurricane season could be quite active and violent.
  4. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    850mb temperatures will drop to near -30 to -40 C across the SNE region.  Cape and Islands could see a nasty band of ocean enhanced snowfall as a large upper low develops a surface low to the east of Maine and drops southeastward.  The location of this surface low will determine how close the band can get to the Cape and Islands later Friday.  With the massive cold pool aloft, winds will bring a ton of moisture, question becomes how strong will the lift become, and snow growth.  Right now, it is a toss up! DAMN!
  5. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Subtle Adjustments can bring us from the dog pound to the Great White Hurricane!
    **2:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time Southern New England Weather Update**
    Simply put, the snow lovers across the region are at the mercy of the giant ridge over the Davis Straits and northern Canada territories.  The -NAO regime with a large 50/50 eastern Labrador vortex is currently running the weather pattern across the Eastern US.  It is dominating the weather scene.  Dry and cold arctic conditions we feel today are from a dominant northern stream where north westerlies at H5 are driving our weather.  The next few days will keep a cold and dry perhaps sunny regime over the region as clouds begin to infiltrate the South Coast of RI, CT and SE MA on Tuesday.  Light snows should begin to break out across western CT and should be shunted to the south thereafter with little if any impacts to the rest of the region.  This I can say with 60 percent confidence.
                The next stop is the 28/29th window in which a monster surface center will develop either off the Outer Banks of North Carolina, or the Delmarva peninsula.  We lack any confidence at this time to make a definitive forecast of any kind, whether it would be snow, rain, sunny skies or cold cloudy days.  We just have no confidence.  Seven-to-ten-day forecast is simple at this moment, highs in the mid 30-s along the Cape and Islands, and everywhere else below freezing for the next week until next weekend when a cutter could present itself if the block breaks down.  Again a lot of ifs and what’s until we get a better model consensus later down the road!
  6. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Huge potential and yet very far away from happening.  We have a pattern characterized by a building +PNA, a budding -AO and a substantial -NAO block like pattern.  One issue in the pattern is the strongest PV like low is over the Canadian Maritimes near Nova Scotia and New Foundland, Canada.  This entity is causing a massive southern dislodge of a streak called confluence.  Confluence is the property of the atmosphere where the jets are coming together, like convergence.  This supports a strong area of surface high pressure, since convergence at mid to upper levels promotes sinking air to the surface, while divergence promote lift i.e. precipitation and moisture.  What we have hear are three systems influencing one another and mucking the other's potential.  We have an arctic jet vorticity maximum rounding the western circulation of the PV (50/50 low) into Northern and Central New England by 3 1/2 days out.  Models also have multiple southern stream disturbances over the Central Plains.  Now with several energetic systems in play, there is the question of timing and phasing.  Again, we will not know until within 18-24 hours from onset of precipitation.  Again, a lot to process.  
  8. USCAPEWEATHERAF

    Reminder...

    By USCAPEWEATHERAF,

    My novel, being self-published on paper back and eBook forms on Amazon will become available for purchase on January 1st, 2021.  My name is James W Nichols, with the title of "The Awakening Dawn: The End has just begun!"  It would be nice to get a fanbase going and build it upwards.  It is hurricane disaster based!
  12. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Hello everyone from Americanwx Forums
    Tonight, I am announcing my official release date for my first novel, "The Awakening Dawn" (TAD)!
    The release date will be January 1st, 2021 (New Year's Day around noon EST)
    Hope you enjoy the novel on its release date, official cost ($0.99)
    Written by, and story created by James Warren Nichols (Air Force veteran - A1C E-3) discharged in 2012.
  14. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Potential exists for Ocean Effect Snow bands to develop as an upper level low develops to the southwest of the region.  Now the evolution of said trough and upper level low remain in question as overall the guidance for 12z 12/06/2020 is still questioning this transition.  Newly updated water vapor imagery as I watch, shows the main energy that develops into the upper level closed low is still diving southward with no eastward motion.  This suggests it will try and phase with the southern stream system and create a formidable surface storm over the North and South Carolina piedmont region.  This low has two avenues of track, one to the ENE and off the coast with little fanfare, or two up the East Coast in more of a NNE track.  The latter performs a major impact event for eastern New England, while the former represents little impacts.  Ocean Effect Snows will only develop if the ocean storm tracks close enough to the region to veer the flow from an anticyclonic burst of westerly winds, to a more cyclonic burst of NNE to N winds across a very mild Gulf of Maine and Cape Cod Bay.  850mb temps which are found 2500 to 5000 feet above the surface of the ocean, dive into the -6 to -12C range for a good 36 hour period.  The winds veer to north-northeasterly at the same time and provide the necessary forcing for ocean effect cloud seeding and developing of snow showers.  Again any accumulations will be light!
  16. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Models are beginning to show an area of focused vorticity rounding the base of neutral to negatively tilted northern branch of the jet stream trough.  Now, energy is over the central North Pacific south of the Aleutian Islands which means the energy is not being sampled properly at this time.  However, multi model consensus is beginning to show prudent signs that this trough will be energizing as it moves through which far more productive than a trough that is weakening instead.  We have the right trends going as the system ignites over the extremely warm waters relative to average norms for November 30th.  While the warm waters are a concern at times, this system will not be driving southeast winds, so the area should remain in a cold environment, enough for snow, I have no idea.  Right now, the threat has begun to emerge for Friday December 5th!
  17. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Weather folks love to use the Rocky Mountains and the Continental divide as the spacer between the western CONUS and eastern CONUS.  The NOAM pattern looks to be in full reversal from this past work week to the next few weeks.  The cold situates itself at peak performance in ten to twelve days.  The EURO, EURO ENS, GFS, CMC all show a strong signal towards a large +PNA/-EPO spiking ridge over the rocky mountains and the Canadian Northwest Territories.  This incredible ridge spike will create cross polar flow across the Arctic and North American Continent.  This flow comes straight southward from the Arctic Circle itself which will poor a strong connection of Sub Zero Celsius air all the way towards the Deep South.  This strong Air masses will allow the cold to settle in place across the northern half of the CONUS allowing Canadian Arctic High Pressure centers to move across Southern Canada and Northern USA allowing the NE CONUS to be subjected to multiple nor'easter threats.  Our first substantial potential powerful winter storm is Thanksgiving Week, Monday the 23rd, that is the signal at least this afternoon cycle 11/13 12z.  Again, there is no confidence in a ten day forecast, but today the pattern is showing itself to be a potential.  However, before that setup, a large deep arctic air mass will move overhead this upcoming work week from Monday to Thursday before a brief warmup before the real arctic pattern settles in after the 20th...
  18. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    I just want SNE folks to realize and soak up the warmth the next few days, until a second GRT Lakes storm moves through day 3-5 and then brings a powerful cold front through the region.  This should usher in very cold, arctic like air mass into the region and the upper level pattern looks to lock into a +PNA at least through the first few days of Thanksgiving Week!  Stay tuned, a coastal redeveloping clipper could move through the region as well around the 17th/18th.  Stay alert!
  19. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    As Celtics Nation and the sports world knows, the one player that everyone associates with the Celtics organization for over sixty years has been the one and only Tommy Heinsohn, one of four players ever to be in the hall of fame in Springfield, MA as a player and a coach and as a broadcaster.  Tommy earned eight NBA championships with the Celtics in his nine year NBA career and two more as a Celtics head coach in the 1970s and had spend the final 39 years of his wonderful life as a NBA broadcaster for the 17 time NBA Championship Franchise Boston Celtics.  Mike Gorman his play by play man side by side for the last 39 years, brought up a tremendous idea that the Celtics players should have his Celtics jersey number 15 retired to be pinned on the players' jerseys during the games this season, then Brian Scalabrine went a step further and said the NBA as whole might want to show continuity as a whole behind the legend of the NBA with his impact beyond the Celtics.  Tommy will forever be missed, but we know God has welcomed him to eternal life!  November 10th, 2020 a day we will never forget a year which we hope will leave in the rear view mirror for reasons behind simplistic beliefs.
  21. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Again, the fall season still wants to remain warm across the eastern CONUS.  Right now, the pattern to Wednesday resembles a troughy but zonal pattern aloft where westerlies remain in control with several troughs moving through the region before the region warms significantly as pattern amplifies into a ridging in the East and troughing in the west pattern.  This is supported by the teleconnections across North America of a strong +NAO/-PNA/+AO pattern.  The only semblance towards a more average pattern temperature wise is with the AO heading neutral by day 15.  Right now, there are no true signs that point to a renewed cold regime in the next two weeks.  Soak up the warmth for the next few weeks.  Sun will continue to set earlier each day until the first day of calendar winter season.
  22. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    One thing is for certain during an active La Nina winter season, the ENSO while in the mid cold phase between -1 and -2C below normal, the northern branch of the jet stream will be very active from now until the La Nina relaxes towards the beginning of Spring 2021.  This winter should provide a rather volatile change in the three day periods.  We will go through changes of warm and cold air masses and active storm tracks either north or south of the region.  Cape Cod has always been the benchmark for rain versus snow.  For events coming out of the northwest, like Ontario, Canada, we would prefer the low track south of Block Island, RI, while if the storm track is from the southwest, we prefer the track to the south of Nantucket.  If the clipper season is active, we should see a few 8-12 inch events from ESSEX to NANTUCKET.  The next seven days provide a nice interior event and two potential last minute developers off Cape Cod.  Let's see how this Friday system works out.
  25. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The next few weeks of Mid to late October 2020 will feature some volatile temperature changes across the northern tier of the CONUS.  It has become quite clear, models are reacting to a colder pattern regime showing up in central Canada and the Arctic.  The Arctic is storing up very intense cold arctic air masses.  As the La Nina continues its reign in the overall oceanic pattern across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the trends towards this pattern regime across the North American Pattern will result in a progressive northern branch of the jet stream with frequent cold fronts moving in from Canada and the Great Lakes.  With each progression, and determining what the teleconnections favor, frequent clippers will be the main storm type for a majority of the 2020-2021 winter.  Whether these systems blow up along the East Coast and Gulf Stream will be determined as I mentioned above, the teleconnections and most appreciably the North American Pacific Pattern (PNA) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which is determined by the presence and pressure pattern of the Icelandic Low Pressure and Greenland Ridge pressure pattern.  Also, the pattern evolving is favoring a transitional period in the pattern across the North and west hemispheres.  Snow is showing up on the models across the Great Lakes in the next 7 days, stay tuned!
×
×
  • Create New...