CoraopolisWx

Euro still likes us for Friday morning, with possible low end advisory amounts. The other guidance is also favorable. 

2-4" is where we'll likely max out, due to the fast flow, and late amplification of the wave.

5 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Honestly, its a nice trend. We are right on the line, but the 00z GFS showed some hints of bringing the energy back a little further west as well. So the NAM and the GFS are hinting at a slightly stronger LP that runs a little more inland and slower.

Will need to watch, but its a nice to see. Hoping the Canadian comes in with a least a little move

Definitely having the other's support would be nice. Gonna be walking that fine line right through Friday morning. 

9 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Long range NAMs look fantastic too bad it's the NAM. Maybe it can score a coupe.

Lol. Yeah. 

But I do imho feel it's NAM or bust. Since our best shot at advisory level snows, would probably be dynamically driven. And the nam does better with dynamic snows. 

12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I’m gonna testify to my stupidity here; how does one know if a system closes off. Do you look at the 500 and want a full circle at the base of the trough? 

Yes. Seems like the winds at the H5 level are so strong, it's not able to close off a low. Uneducated guess.

Checking in your group, since our interests are aligned.

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Groundhog said early Spring.  I feel like we've been in early Spring, extended Fall/Early Spring already, so I guess he's right, lol!

Seems like we've been in a late spring, late Fall pattern going on 4 years now. Wet and muggy summers with warm early winters.

We almost need a dry hot summer to reshuffle the whole pattern.

Would be nice to get a closed off H5 for Friday morning, however at this point it's more of a glorified front.

Nice clear sky tonight. Bright moon and lots of stars even here in the city.

1 hour ago, north pgh said:

Since the super bowl is boring.....I thought I’d jump in here with my pessimistic thoughts on this weeks storms. I have a hard time believing that we get a triple barrel low. Odds are always in our favor for rain with an inch or less back end snows. 

Sometimes you have to try reverse psychology 

Something we've seen for many years, is the inability for any strong inland runners to develop south of PA.

We also tend to be on the wrong side of the boundary with moisture laden overrunning systems.

The three separate waves are tough to deal with.

46 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Looks like a winter wonderland out there this morning. Probably about an inch but it’s stuck to everything. I decided to sleep in for once and missed it falling but still a nice suprise.

Lol. Same here. If I knew that band was coming I wouldn't have fallen back to sleep. 

Canadian, Euro, and GFS all have the Thursday night storm.

 GFS and Euro are decent tracks, but the late development dampens are snow qpf.

Haven’t seen snow on the roads in awhile. 
A bit surprised. 

Came across this doing some research. Thought you folks might like it.

https://books.google.com/books?id=QANPLARGXFMC&pg=PA69&lpg=PA69&dq=leap+lear+snow+storm+1984&source=bl&ots=34kFJ2Gor2&sig=ACfU3U3I88d2s1VA4biS8COoCJGlLgyy6A&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj-2ZDCwKHnAhVRlnIEHQ-6DgkQ6AEwAHoECAwQAQ#v=onepage&q=leap lear snow storm 1984&f=false

1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

It figures...after dealing with everything cutting all winter the next storm looks like it could be south or East.
 

ive said it before, but it seems literally everywhere in a 50-100 mile radius of us has had a good 12+ inch storm the last 5 years but us.

Reminds me of 86-92, which featured long periods without snow. Dec 1992 was the first big storm I experienced. 

Just when I thought I was out..the Euro pulled me back in. 
I would like that dying low more south, just to be safe. 

3 hours ago, buckeye said:

Speaking of Cincy futility.....

 

Snow equals views/memberships. 

Whether it's wxbell or all these other youtube forecasts, they know the viewer base. And if there's enough evidence to show above average snow, they're gonna push that.

Unfortunately, rarely will these folks show the evidence of why winter could be another dud.

Not sure about Jonesboro Arkansas, but we’re possibly becoming Charleston WV.  
Just looking at trends I don’t see winter improving. 

Basically the odds of becoming Charleston WV are much better than say I-80. Synoptically speaking.  
Despite Charleston being much further away than I-80. 
 

Sorry about possibly derailing any discussion on tonight’s flurries and wind event. 
 

We actually had a half way decent setup for an advisory level snow. 
Had this been more of a SWFE, we could have avoided that long break in the precip. 

12 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

FWIW the mix line has pushed back south back into AGH county. Hopefully it can push further south but I bet the city will be the dividing line as usual. 

What radar do you use ?

Just now, KPITSnow said:

Doubtful

Yeah, unfortunately.

Maybe next time.

12 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

It may happen for a brief time but looking at the high res radar the mix line has surged all the way into Butler county. 

Seeing how most of Ohio caved quickly to the warm air, that was going to be our ultimate fate. 

Regarding the NWS post about a possible switch back to snow, the GFS did show that possibly happening.

1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said:

Euro showing a pretty decent thump on saturday. This if of course before a change over to some mix and then all rain. Not sure it pans out, but its something to watch.

57 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

The trend is looking good for a quick thump and maybe it trends better but with that warm tongue I never get my Hope's up. 

There seems like a consensus is forming among the big three of at least 1-3" on the front end.

Nothing great, but outside of a few rogue snow squalls, this would be the biggest event so far. Smh

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

We need the primary to die off fast and transfer or this is gonna be a quick changeover. Still a week out 

 

Unfortunately it has that classic CAD look, where longitude is our enemy. 

However like you said, it’s still a week away. 
Possibly the 850’s end up a few degrees colder, and the precip rates are heavier at the start. 
We’ll see. 

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

I love CAD....and there is nothing like a CAD event but i wonder how much more snow we would have if we didnt have CAD/Mountains and this snow was easily able to make it to us.

 

 

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Draw a line west of the mountains and that’s about how much...and you wouldby like it. You would sacrifice a few small storms from west to east clippers for big totals where CAD saves us from a flip. Our best storms that track south of us have enough easterly wind component that the downslope isn’t an issue. It’s when we’re stuck in a pattern with lows going to our west that it sucks but that pattern wouldn’t be that good anyways. 

You folks definitely want the App's.

Here in Pgh, CAD is the bane of our winter existence, as we constantly get flooded with warm air.

Even on 2/5/2010 parts of our area had rain until 9-10 pm.

24 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

Seriously-driving from the laurels into bethel park was ok-leaving bethel around 8pm to come home-it was thick thick fog until we hit Uniontown....not sure what the deal was with all that dense fog-hope you all have a wonderful Christmas and hope New Years brings some snow and a better pattern

Glad you made it home safe.

This is some of the lowest visibility I can remember in a awhile.