CoraopolisWx

Main road is starting to cave on the edges

13 minutes ago, jwilson said:

There were a few models that kept us dry most of today.  We've lost a good bit of time with the primary, but it really hasn't moved much all day.  Consider my last post it was in southern Indiana, and right now the surface low is over Northern Kentucky just creeping into West Virginia.  No coastal redevelopment yet.

The freezing line at the surface is close to the area if not over it, but at 850 the line remains well south of Morgantown.

If the snow rates can get going, it should cool the surface back down, as well.

Still not sure how this will play out.  It does look like we might be relying on the CCB to line up over as again, at least if we want to hit the higher end of warning totals.  Could happen tomorrow and even into Tuesday.  Also consider that the CMC and RGEM has it snowing here until Wednesday afternoon.  If that occurs, we'll certainly be fine.

Looking at this storm overall, however, I can't help but wish we picked it up during an El Nino winter.  That moisture abundance from the STJ would have made this a really remarkable event for a much bigger area.

Was thinking the same thing. This block is kinda being wasted on a typical Nina climo.

Regarding the models, unfortunately the GFS has led the way so far. It's been locked in for a couple days.

2 minutes ago, north pgh said:

I think we are fine. No models show the rain snow line coming any further north.

Is that deform band producing at your location.

Deform band developing just north of city, and precip slowly moving north to meet it.

Should be interesting to see what happens in the middle.

11 minutes ago, southpark said:

On the border too. Looks like snow. Don't think I am mixing yet

The barbarians are at the gate, we need you to hold.

Confirming with traffic cams, 70 and 79 in Washington and Greene look wet. Precip is mostly liquid

It will be interesting to see which model verifies the best.

Canadian still wants to keep our snow going until Wednesday afternoon. Lol

Seems like most of the guidance showed a decent burst of snow later today. 

Hope Teaysvalley is ok. 
Hasn’t been around for most of the winter. 

After digesting all of the guidance, my first and only call will be 8.7" officially at KPIT.

1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

Damn. That 2 ft area is just east of AGH County too. Maybe this storm will have some tricks up its sleeve. Throwing precip further back, back building etc. Regardless looks to be at a minimum a high end advisory event. 

 

 

At the very worst, we're probably gonna reach our annual goal of 40", then we have at least 6 weeks of bonus time.

Just now, Rd9108 said:

Great trend on the newest CMC too. 0z had us around 4-5. 12z is around 8-10. It once again nukes south central PA with 3 ft. Crazy. 

Yeah, seems the newer guidance keeps the 850 low in S. Ohio, preventing it from overwhelming us with warm dry air.

Hopefully we get some low visibility banding tomorrow morning/afternoon.

10 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Also, if I read the WWA correctly it said it runs from 10pm tonight to 10pm tomorrow night.  Are the models shutting the precipitation down before Monday now?  Weren't they showing snow through most of Monday?

It's a bit unusual. I think they're trying to hedge their bets so to speak, knowing they can upgrade later if needed.

Our 850 moisture transport isn't as robust as the eastern half of the state, but it's still decent.

Even outside the paywall, there's good info on this site I like to use for the Euro : https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/temperature-f.html

A quick 1-2" is possible under the more stationary bands.

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

It seems it was much colder today than it was supposed to be at this time, or maybe I stopped caring after figuring the storm wasn't ours.  Any chance though that we get a little front end snow before the change?

Seems like we kinda got stuck between two systems. We missed the precip shield to our south today, and tonight the best forcing might shift north of us too quickly, before temps rise .

Maybe something like last night, might be what we end up with.

6 hours ago, OutnOakmont said:

Gross. The early part of next week is really starting to look like a slopfest. It's disappointing to see the tongue emerge! 

Looks like it should be pretty quick and painless, as we get flooded with warm air at the 850 level, and then at the surface not too long after.

The Euro is pretty much locked in, with this solution.

I know it’s weenie hyperbole, but it just seems like one of those winters where it wants to snow. 
IMHO, once we broke out of that wet subtropical pattern we had been in for a few years, the odds at a normal winter were better. Outside of a full continental torch, I like the overall direction this winter is going in. 

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Coming down hard again.

still no power, but looks like it’s only 24 customers, so guess Duquesne Light doesn’t care too much.  Supposed to be 4 before we get it back.

I know how that feels. 
The squall line we had a couple months ago knocked out power for one small area up here from 5pm-4am. 
Everywhere else had power all evening. 

6 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I ended up with maybe 3/4 -1 inch but it quickly melted, back to bare ground aside from some slush in some grassy areas. It was coming down pretty good for awhile there.

Yeah, unfortunately unless you were under those heavier bands for awhile it was tough to get much more with marginal temps. 
 

RGEM nailed this one.

Assuming this weekend was going to be a non event, I didn't even look at the meso models.

Checking the traffic cam out of West Alexander confirms those radar returns are legit.

Rare freezing fog event this morning making a nice scene.

Also looks like some embedded heavier snow in that larger area moving our way.

1 hour ago, Burghblizz said:

I keep thinking how many times we have said in the past that we would trade in a ton of nickle and dime snows for a few good thumps a year.

Looks like we got our wish :-)

While I do prefer thatI am starting to miss snow and our usual cadence of it.  

Lol. I know really.

I will say the one slight positive, has been being able to wear regular shoes so far this month.

14 minutes ago, north pgh said:

I nice little snow shower popped up and sitting over my area. Picked up a good coating of snow on everything. Very weird and isolated.

Yeah not much bigger than Ross, moving slowly SE. Lol

Had a very light coating this morning here also.

The stats say we have more snow coming. Every season with a December of 20"+, finished with at least 50" for the year. Obviously there's a first time for everything, but the odds are in our favor.