CoraopolisWx

Guidance has been consistent with a general 2-4” Christmas Eve. 
Outside of a major shift, a white Christmas is very likely.  

28 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said:

Must of had a stronger push of warm air here. There was a lot of dripping this morning. None of the snow accumulated. 

Just a slushy coating on the steps.

3 minutes ago, north pgh said:

I guess everyone slept in and missed it. A nice pasted 1.5 inches of heavy wet snow early this morning. A nice December so far. A 7 inch storm. A 10 inch storm and a surprise this morning. Almost 20 inches and it’s not Christmas yet. 

Must of had a stronger push of warm air here. There was a lot of dripping this morning. None of the snow accumulated. 

Guidance showing promise for Christmas eve snowfall. Maybe we can crack the 20" mark for the month next week.

1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said:

Terrific mood snow. Fireplace roaring, Christmas lights on, 10” snowpack on the ground, and the most perfect light snow falling outside my windows. This is what dreams are made of.


.

Definitely gives me an old school early 90's vibe, where the day after the main storm, a small disturbance would freshen the snowpack. 

Temps are relatively pleasant, which makes the clean up easier. 

1 hour ago, BigO60 said:

I measured close to 11 in Squirrel Hill. Anyone know where NWS gets their data from? It seems everyone is measuring above their 9.4 mark.

Their office where the measurements are official, is down the road a bit from the Walmart up in Moon. 
I think the banding wasn’t quite as proficient out in Moon, as opposed to the City and points east.

7 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Hmmm most of us should hit double digits. 

When the Euro held serve last night, confidence in reaching  warning criteria was good.

Combine that with the short term guidance this morning, along with the right conditions, 8-12" was possible.

2 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

thanks..finally a storm over 12" here.

That heavy band has really set up nicely up there.

Looks like the one that we had earlier, and the one in the ridges has merged over you.

Kinda surprised with about 9.5" here in Carrick.

Definitely a workout walking around measuring, but fun.

Nexrad showing 40-45 dbZ in the center of that band moving NNE.

Short term guidance still looks good. We still have a shot a double digits, if the banding can over perform this evening. 
The key was getting off to a good start. 

23 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

It got quiet in here, lol.

I think everyone is taking a breather/dinner. Tomorrow will hopefully be a fun day of nowcasting and obs.

At least I am. 

23 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

The trend is all that matters in my opinion. It didn't go further south east it bumped closer to us. I'm curious to see what the Euro is gonna show. I'm hoping to see a NAM like result. 

Yeah, it seems that the trend of all the guidance provides us with at least a region wide 4-6" snowfall now. However < 10" is becoming more possible for the metro.

26 minutes ago, meatwad said:

Didn’t the 1992 December storm do the same thing?

18 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

That was a bigger, more explosive storm. It was much warmer to the east. But the setup is pretty similar.

That had a first wave that overperformed as there was supposed to be heavier snow later with the coastal. But the epic snows later really only made to Somerset (3’). Still a foot of snow and a memorable storm 

I would say the overall feel of this storm reminds me a little bit of Jan 1996 and Jan 2016. Hopefully the Jan 1996 part carries more weight.

IMHO, we are going to have a relatively small window where lift/energy and moisture are good.

Efficient snow growth will be key to get off to a fast start, and with some luck, reach low end warning totals before the coastal absorbs everything.

That weak 850 low tracking into Ohio and right over us while it decays is not ideal. 

Further south and stronger is what we need. 

Obviously a closed 500 low would be great, unfortunately non of the guidance is showing anything close to that at this time. 

I don't expect any real answers until Tuesday. But it is nice not having to wait until late January or February to track something. 

Seems like the OP’s have the 850’s more tightly wound. 
Would like to see a more elongated 850 low, and 500 low for that matter. 
Basically if someone else has to get 2ft for us to get a 1ft, then so be it. 

24 minutes ago, dj3 said:

Yea after several runs in the right direction that has us on the losing end of a brutal cutoff. 

Yeah, especially for the Altoona/State College area that go from 2-3" to 2 ft in a short distance.   

Reminds me of the brutal cutoff we had Jan 2016. 

Not exactly the same setup, but this was an early holiday present. Early dismissal Thursday the 10th, and school closed on Friday. 

Tough to measure with everything wind blown here.

Estimate about 4".

1 hour ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

Woke up to about 4” so far-wish I could post a pic of my pup in it-Keeps saying the file is too big 

Elevation FTW.

Had about 1.5 - 2" on the car this morning, bit of a surprise.

With temps being the biggest question, specifically how quickly the column cools, the NWS outlook is reasonable. 

Just an OT side note, but it's kinda funny how the algorithm for these model snow maps make most of Allegheny county a giant UHI.

In reality it's mostly just the valley floors, that lose a lot of snowfall accumulation. Obviously these maps are taken with a giant grain of salt, just something I've noticed the past few years.

It would be nice for once to cash in early ala Dec 1974. 
Models showing possible troughing closer to Dec. 

4 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Well WTAE is the first to post their winter forecast. They went with above average Temps every month, 30-38 inches of snowfall with it being possible to see more depending on lake effect and if we get colder Temps. So basically the usual mix line is through the county. 

Maybe this year we get some NS love, with a few high end advisory clippers.

On 9/14/2020 at 8:08 AM, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

Well looking at extended this week and especially after Thursday look to be some true fall weather around here..... 

Some of the nicest September weather we’ve had in awhile.