CoraopolisWx

27 minutes ago, Mailman said:

TWC has someone in Pittsburgh, it seems.  

With Verizon TWC has been a no go for a few years. Would be nice to have it back sometimes.

I'd rather be about 100 miles SE with this storm, but we might get clipped by some of the good rates later on.

Possibly PBZ is seeing that slight inverted trough feature on some of the guidance, and anticipating some WAA enhancement. 

Just a thought. 

1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said:

KPIT issuing WSW for a 4-6 event. 6 is the absolute max i can see from this fast mover. Everything to me is looking like a 2-4 though. Do you think someone at the NWS is drunk? 

I thought it was an old notification that hadn’t been cleared from my phone. Then I saw it was real. Lol

1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Saw the 18z Euro went SE again.. Not a good sign. 18z has been a good indicator for 00z for most storms I've paid attention to this season. 

Need to stop any further movement tonight, if we’re to salvage anything decent from this storm. 

6 minutes ago, jwilson said:

Yeah I think you're right.  Mistake on my part, thinking those maps only showed a single event synopsis.

Storm is definitely less amped, though.  Truthfully, this was never going to be a "big one" because of the progressive flow.  If there weren't so many waves scrambling close together, I do think this weekend could have been a major event (maybe not for us - depends on other factors - but for someone).

I do agree, beggars can't be choosers and all, but we've still managed a fair amount of snow this year.  For me, the little to modest events have simply lost their appeal.

Is 2010 still the last double-digit snowfall for Pittsburgh metro?

Technically March 21 2018 was double digit. But the snowpack was already starting to melt before the last flakes had even fallen. 

4 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Still looks decent but that map is the Kuchera ratios, last couple we saw were 10:1, looking at that same algorithm it is clear we are getting less QPF, but track looks similar. My guess is it's less amped which could open the door for more SE adjustment. 

Unfortunately that is a risk. 

We’ll have to hope the Saturday wave can be a bit weaker, then we’re right back in the warning level amounts. 

WPC still has us in the game.

Probably will get an updated forecast after the 12Z Euro finishes up.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/pennsylvania/wind-500mb/20190303-2100z.html

Euro nudged south a bit. Hopefully the trend continues.

GFS and Canadian like Sunday. Just have to see if the Euro comes south any.

Yeah, I also noticed a regeneration of the winds around 930 last night. 

Almost like a second wave. 

3 minutes ago, jwilson said:

Sadly, yes.  This was the biggest snow we've had all winter and it came and went in about four hours.  Precip ending much sooner than expected, honestly.

At least it appears we won't get much plain rain to wash things away.

Glad the best rates weren't wasted on rain.

A bit of redemption for last month's screw job.

Gfs and Nam aren’t budging. 

Interesting to see who verifies tomorrow. Short terms look ok, so we’ll see. 

21 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Any thoughts on upgrading this to a warning? I know that it doesn’t meet criteria per se, but 1-3 inches and two tenths of an inch of ice has to be pretty close when combining the two. 

 

Also, the timing is really bad and will make this highly impactful....id think 3 inches of snow and then freezing rain on top could warrant a warning especially since we are likely to get pretty heavy precip.

Probably not until tomorrow morning, when the actual impact is being felt. 

However if the rates are heavy enough, the nws might upgrade anyway. 

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

Agreed. Right now the gfs is the warmest and is worst case. Curious to see if the euro holds serve. I'd be happy to somehow get 4 but I think 2-3 is the right call. 

Seems the 12z GFS has moved toward the other guidance somewhat, in that it's not insisting on a shutout.

Although it’s pretty much alone, Euro continues to like early Wednesday. 

The precip would have to come in fast and furious for anything close to verification. Can’t trust the 850 temps holding on very long. 

1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said:

How bad has the NAM been at temp profiling this winter? 12Z nam still had freezing rain at the onset of the precip tonight. My house in already at 33°. Well before any precip makes it to the area.

Just one of those years unfortunately. 

At this point it’s looking like 1962/1993 or bust. 

5 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said:

According to what I’m seeing doesn’t look good through the end of February. Maybe March will bring the big one....

Yeah, maybe we can score an Ash Wednesday 1962 type storm. 

Gusty line of heavy rain with the cold front moving through.

Not much else to say.

2 hours ago, north pgh said:

My current conditions 34 and 

 

The new winter normal. 

40 years of this B.S. has unfortunately given us a large enough sample size to make that statement.

An outsider may simply look at the yearly snow totals and say things aren't that bad, suck it up buttercup. And that may be partially true.

However I believe the NOWData maximum monthly snow depth shows the real picture.

Compare 1949-1979 and 1980-Present.

The number of months with double digit snow depths 1949-1979 dwarfs the past 40 years.

Might be the nicest late afternoon/early evening all winter. 

Blue skies with the setting sun shining on the fresh powder.  

2 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Very impactful 2-3” overall....timing and temps wreaking havoc

Yeah, probably should've just issued the WWA for everyone last evening, before folks went to bed.

i believe some folks were caught off guard this morning.

A bit OT here, I turned on a phone I rarely use for the first time since October 6th.  

The temp at that time was 85F, and of course updated to -2F currently. 

I forgot how long summer was last year. We then had 3 weeks of fall, and right into winter. 

It would be nice one year, to actually take advantage of these cold shots with a heavy WAA snowfall. 

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

Still holding out hope for something in the warning criteria like 5-8 by the end of winter. The way this winter is going it maybe hard to pull off until March or april kind of like last year. The models dont know what to do about the long range and honestly the euro flipped from warm up to cold in one run. 

Missing out on that storm last weekend really took the wind out of this place. If we had gotten at least 2-4" on the front end, the overall mood would have a bit more positive. But that dry air/WAA was really dissapointing, and bit unexpected.

Hopefully we can pull something off before our 6 months of summer begin.

Unfortunately the radar is down, but that thin band of LES is moving through now.

Had no idea until I took the garbage out and was in a whiteout.