CoraopolisWx

Kinda funny reading some of the posts from the Upstate NY Folks bashing the kuchera maps for showing 2', but they only got 15-18". 

1 hour ago, Mailman said:

All the models seem to be showing multiple chances for the white stuff going forward.  Yay!

Yeah, midweek deserves at least a cursory glance. Just depends on the position and strength of the wave developing. 

Sort of a glorified anafront. 

Maybe February will bring better storm tracks for us.  

41F down here at the Waterfront. 

Didn’t think surface temps would get above 40F today.  

Good day to get out and run some errands, because it appears the radar is gonna be ugly.

The GFS/GFS-FV3 was insistent on a shutout, and so far it's verifying. SMH

Meh, less to shovel tomorrow. 

Seems yesterday the guidance started putting more emphasis on the back end snows early Sunday morning.  

I still think care has to be taken early this afternoon for slushy freezing rain in the typical spots, but by this evening might just go on with normal Saturday plans.  

Just now, Rd9108 said:

Or maybe the WTOD is overdone on the models for a change. 

Possibly, but I still think the warm air wins out temporarily. 

However if we can get some good banding it might help salvage something for this storm. 

NAM isn’t horrible especially for Pittsburgh north. 

Maybe we get some convective bands that surprise some folks south of Pgh. 

I try to keep a balanced view, and stay positive. 

But sometimes it feels good to let the hate flow.  Lol

Being the coldest snowiest location in the Ohio Valley, is like being 9-6-1 in the NFL and missing the playoffs.  Smh.  Lol. 

Maybe if the wall doesn’t get done, we can get a petition going to bulldoze the Allegheny Front and Laurels, from about State College to Deep Creek. 

Those whining central and eastern PA folks don’t know how good they have it living east of the Apps. 

Lol. 

The GFS and especially the FV3 have been insistent on a shutout for a couple days now, it's gonna be really interesting to see if that 850 setup verifies on Saturday

00z 3k NAM tucks that 850 vort just south of us, keeping us mostly frozen.

More so than other storms, the 850's are really running the show.

FWIW the 00Z Canadian has the 850 low a bit further south, and closes off a contour at 12Z to give us some decent snow Sun morning

Sometimes the the quick painless death of the 18Z GFS-FV3, is better than these fringe jobs. Lol

25 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Fing A. AGC is always the pivot point. It's crazy how consistent that idea is.

 

3 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

So im still breaking down the NAM.  AGC goes no warmer than 32° surface temp the entire time. The thing that is the most maddening about this is that the NAM warms to 1°C at 850. 1°... Its crazy that 1° could keep us from a pretty epic snowfall for the area and plunge us into the mix. 

Definitely too close for comfort at the surface, but especially at 850.

I would prefer to see that 850 low nudged further south, to add a more easterly component, thus slowing the warming.

7 minutes ago, dj3 said:

I’m pretty happy with 12z runs overall. The only one that really sucked was the gfs. Everything else seemed to do a consensus shift towards significant snow for Pittsburgh. Even the Ggem shifted further south. I love that look on the euro temps never go above 30 and the foot line is almost down to the pa border. 

It’s nice to have some wiggle room to account for any WAA shenanigans.  

Being right on the southern edge usually doesn’t go well for us. 

23 minutes ago, dj3 said:

Gfs still takes the low over our heads and up into ny state. 

Yeah, I've noticed the GFS past several runs strong with the WAA, driving the warm air further north than the other guidance.

15 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

It is very close to 00z, it did make an ever so slight improvement on totals to the SE, now gets almost 12+ into northern Allegheny, not sure how accurate that is though as these snow algorithms are pretty poor handling changeover situations.  I know it's just noise but man is it close.

2 minutes ago, dj3 said:

I thought the stripe of max snow looked a little south from 00z as well. We’d still likely underperform on totals if that was the final outcome but that is close enough to keep things interesting for now. 

Euro hasn't locked in yet, but it's getting very "uncomfortable".

I know I'm sounding like the MA folks, but we can't afford another jog back to the NW tonight.

"Uncomfortable wobbles" for sure.

On Weather.us the Euro snow precip totals bullseye went north yesterday, but has come back south the last two runs.

The Euro has had us around 1.3" of precip as snow consistently so far.

As long as the Euro keeps us close to that warning criteria range, I think we’ll be ok. 

There’s gonna be some uncomfortable wobbles, but hopefully most of the bullseyes will be south of I-80. 

Solid 2” so far.  

Relative to the goose egg we had for a month, not too bad.  

Since it’s already looking like next weekend will be a test of our mental health, I’m gonna try to enjoy tonight and tomorrow morning.  

14 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Out in the Greensburg area tonight and about an 1” since about 4:00.

There is a ton of precip to the SW, so I’m interested to see how things hold together. 

There’s a nice band south of Columbus, it’ll be interesting to see how far north it makes it

26 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

I have no words...

19 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

And before I head out for the day and step away from these models. We have the 12z euro. 

 

 

We should move to VA

SMH

F*** Richmond       LOL