jayyy

My nakey eye ball agrees

Peep HoCo. Just as I alluded to earlier. Models keep showing this secondary jackpot JUST west of the rain/snow line where QPF jacks in that crazy meso band. Not sure this has any chance to pan out, but it intrigues me that hi res (hrrr 12k nam) keep showing this.

Come on MESOs...

Late to the party. Just got off work. Euro is out to lunch, IMO. How does it keep moving the low farther and farther west while barely changing snowfall totals? Something seems wrong.

It’s a good thing nobody’s making life decisions based off this map. Good grief. I’d give me left big toe to see 16” verify for you folks down in Baltimore ...Unless it’s onto something.

Agreed. Just saw that too. Womp.

My brother says he’s down to 34 in Columbia. It is definitely chilly out there.

Is it me, or is that track a lot better than 99.9% of models are depicting? A track like that would be conducive to much more than advisory snowfall for HoCo and that area just west of 95

Models can absolutely all bust. Especially when we’re talking 50 miles either way. One slight miscalculation and the entire run can be toast with a thread the needle situation like this one. Let’s just hope it busts east, not west.

If the low takes that track along the white line, there will be a ton of surprised people come Wednesday PM.

Right?? Where are the clown maps to give folks false hope 24 hours before the storm? Sheesh! Haha. All kidding aside... this storm has been the epitome of 2020 to track.

35/22 - Union bridge Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but looks like the RGEM brings in WAA snows earlier.

It would definitely be something if NWS lowered amounts, just to see things shift SE again 18z/0z tonight. #ReverseTheCurse

Definitely a trend SE on the NAM - SLP is a bit ESE and as PSUhoffman has been saying, there appears to be some closed circulation being hinted here. Let’s see if other models see this at all

One take away from 12z & 18z... models are still pretty clueless on a) strength and track of the primary SLP in OV b) positioning of the high and timing of its retreat c) a and b result in 50-60-70 mile differences in track on various models. Which clearly makes or breaks the storm for coasties Not the worst thing position in the world to be in with a legit airmass in place, but we definitely need to see more support than the 12z NAM before we can get remotely excited

Holy crap this is going to be real close for HoCo MoCo. Taking a looking at the upper levels, whoever stays mostly snow just west of the rain/snow line is going to be a secondary (albeit lower) jackpot of sorts. A few models point to pretty intense lift just west of the fall line. 12k NAM starting off 18z right with a slower progression and slightly deeper dig... let’s keep it going

All good. Had me excited for a moment

Just trying to stay positive for my fellow weenies closer to the coast. Although, I’m starting to feel a little uneasy about a sleet / FRZ RN fest up here as well if the bleeding doesn’t stop soon

Euro went East or west?

We’re not going to know where this is headed until the storm is here. Models have virtually zero agreement on how to handle the high to the NE, the primary in the Ohio valley, and in turn, the SLP / 850 low track. Just the slightest over amplification or under amplification of the primary in the OV throws the entire storm into limbo. Yes, this often doesn’t end well... but the overwhelming majority of ensembles look much better than the OP with the location of the SLP. The mouth of the bay versus 50 miles offshore makes or breaks the entire storm for the eastern half of the cwa

nyc isn’t getting screwed... again.

Hoping to see the models catch up today, not the other way around! Whew! Big runs coming up today.

It’s plausible if you believe the 12k nam’s thermals... tough model to hug however. Gotta see something big change today for me to believe this map comes to fruition.

8-12 for Baltimore in NWS’s newest map - doesn’t line up with its own WSW. Seems silly

Don’t worry, 6z will do it’s usual QPF dump and put out 30”clown maps Night sir.