jayyy

It depends on low placement / track. Typically speaking... a strong SLP doesn’t bode as well for the coast as it does for the interior. Warm air intrusion can be a big concern. As is my concern with this storm along and east of 95. Stronger typically means a closer track to the coast. There’s likely going to be a pretty big snow gradient unless this thing begins trending SE a bit. Snow to Rain E of BAL / DC... a few sloppy inches downtown...3-6” just outside the beltway, and 6-12+“ north of 70 and west of 270. Classic December setup. We get that 1040 HP to anchor in the right location however, and coasties get their boom. Currently, the QPF jackpot is in northern MD / southern PA (1.5 - 2” of qpf looking at deterministic models) - along with the best lift. Need a decent jog SE for I-95 to get in on warning level snowfall unless you live in NJ and points N.

Depends on the track of the low and placement of the high..

Looks like the Canadian honestly.

COULD be a storm where reisterstown sees a foot and heavy snow while Brooklyn and Annapolis see a sloppy 6” if this thing nudges west over the next 48 hours. With that being said... h5 and CAD have been trending really nicely since 12z and I expect 00z euro to follow suit. The ideal storm for the setup we’re currently in falls right between the 00z GFS and the 00z CMC. I don’t want to get my hopes up too high just to get burned but DAMN, does it feel good to be tracking a major winter storm in mid December again.

Unreal cutoff south of Baltimore showing up on almost every model. Difference of a foot over 50 miles. That has to be watched closely. NYC the Lower Hudson valley E PA and NNJ are going to get walloped by this. H5 cut off by AC - someone’s going to hit 30” up there. Feeling pretty confident that the area between myself, PSU, and clredskin is looking pretty darn good for at least 6” at this point.

Great 00z. Whew! Canadian agrees.

I like the call. 6-8” is a realistic call at this point. My folks who live 40 miles NW of nyc are in for 12+ easily - I’m a bit jealous.

Helluva week to make a return! Looking decent for 6” or more area wide!

GFS / Euro blend isn’t too shabby. Thankfully we have 4 days left of tracking

Whatcha thinking bob? Think we can eek out a few solid inches in the Carrol - west HoCo - MoCo snowbelt Friday night before the transition? Trend has definitely been solid today. Hoping we have enough time for things to continue to trend in our direction. Have noticed the look at h5 and the SLP position have begun to trend in our direction on the euro/gfs/gefs edit - Newest euro definitely trended stronger, more north and therefor pumps the ridge more. Not a good look.

Ah yes, threads jinx storms, and snow can’t stick when it’s “too warm the day before”. How could we forget these ancient winter storm proverbs!

Hard to see through all of the fog on the models, but SLP positioning seems to be slowly improving and many models are trending toward keeping that 1030-1040 high in place longer. We definitely won’t see all snow, but don’t discount 2” (closer to 95) to 4” (usual cold spots near Westminster etc) of snow nw of the big cities before the transition Going to be harder to erode that airmass than models are depicting. Sadly we have no blocking in place to help us out, but we should see a solid few hours of flakes for sure.

I lived 30 miles NW of NYC Along the Hudson River in ’06. 2/9/06 was an UNREAL storm. 20+‘degree temp drop and almost a foot of snow in mere hours. Insane.

Try another 2-3 days. The GFS will show 4 very different solutions tomorrow from run to run. As it almost always does when the energy in question is nowhere near the CONUS for good model sampling. patience, young jedis!

If you guys are basing your long term forecasts on 168+ hour GFS runs, you’re setting yourself up for failure. Relax guys. All it takes is one or two Features being out of place for that storm be a lakes cutter on models. Models have zero clue as to what’s going on Meteo knowledge and our climo say what will happen next weekend is Snow (how much still a huge question) to ice to rain with the usual colder spots up here near Westminster and points north holding onto a sloppy mix for a while longer than areas near 95, which will serve as the catalyst to a true wintry pattern. relax kids. Stop the cancel winter posts. Remember, with global warming, our winter is really February to April anyway LOL

Dark Sky shows 4-8” for next Saturday, let’s just go with it and see what happens... what could go wrong LMAO

By the way... fellow HoCo residents... that band to our north is about to pivot ESE toward the ocean. Snow is picking back up. Again. Need 0.5” to hit a foot.

Everything shifted north, as myself and many others warned could happen with this setup. Stinks for that area. Not complaining here in MD however.

Sinking air to the east as a result of of intense rising air to your west. The storm’s location never allowed for the bands to pivot east. No worries. Well all hopefully cash in this weekend!!

This is INSANE to me. I 70 was like a brick wall. Reports of 10-12” all around ec, Columbia, etc And reports of 4-6” in NW Baltimore county. What a crazy gradient.

Ellicott City here as well near 108. Confirmed 11.25” of snow

Normal that people right outside intense bands see flurries as it dumps a few miles away. Intense lifting means sinking air outside the band. What may look like a snowy radar may produce not much in reality. We got lucky here in HoCo and MoCo. 11”

Yes. Howard county.

Double digits baby. Still dumping

Woooow