jayyy
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Everything posted by jayyy
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Light snow 30 degrees
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This gradient being shown on maps is insane. 12”+ with less than 3” 20-30 miles away in some cases.... either some folks expecting 12” are gonna be super disappointed, or the I-95 corridor is in for a little treat. so far: HP is a bit stronger / south of progged. Not sure if that means anything but there’s a decent CAD signature down into VA
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28 degrees - let’s GO! it’s gonna rake out there today. Precipitation moving in ahead of schedule. Me likey
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Must... sleep.... Inner thoughts:::: “but 6z is so soon....” I hope the next HRRR run is sexy
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That’s what I’m saying! Wouldn’t be the first or last time a model got a track wrong by 30-50 miles
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Wonder how that affects warming in the upper level on the model. That track NW has to be cranking 850s up the bay. If it took a steady NE track, I wonder if that would translate any differently
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Thing literally takes a 90 degree turn as soon as it hits the Atlantic off the Carolina coastline. What gives
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Looking like marquis brown’s routes against the bills
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Also very curious if anybody can give some insight. Not saying it “cant” happen, per say, but I am very curious from a meteorological standpoint what would cause a fairly quick moving storm, in a progressive pattern, to take that sharp NW turn just to take another sharp turn NE. Wild.
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@psuhoffman - any shot the euro has that wrong and it doesn’t make the NW turn into the bay?
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Right? If that low tracked from NC due NE to its depicted location, we’d all be seeing 12+
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Solid call. 22/20 here as well. Dews up 2 degrees. Meep. Sleep well sir, tomorrow comes the mauling
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Slight, no doubt. However...a track on the Other side of the mouth of bay can make a decent difference for C MD and NoVa the low is both weaker and further east. Both positives for that area
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How are you doing on temps right now? It’s a pre-mauling 22 out there over here
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Woooof.
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I’m salivating at that run here in west Carroll county
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Euro has done this two runs in a row. It doesn’t make sense to me, at all. The pattern is fairly progressive, a ridge is pumping to the south... all conducive of a NE track, not NW. I must be missing something... HRRR track would be swell for most
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Not a bad idea. I think 2-5” is a good call for downtown Baltimore. I feel good about at least 2-3” with the front end thump being depicted on mesos and Hi res - Lollipop 4”They can usually sniff out WAA thump way better than globals can. Not sold on backend snows at this juncture.
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850s 0c is literally 10 miles SE of me. Kept all snow... barely. Best place to be for QPF
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Any other storm I’d have much more confidence in the outcome this close to the storm. The forecast looks pretty locked from 15 on west. However...in the C MD, N VA and the I 95 corridor, not so much. Models still differ a great deal at both the surface and the upper levels. Going to truly be a nowcasting situation with this one.
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The HP also hasn’t retreated as much by hour 30 as was being shown at 18z
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Not sure honestly. Think it may have either a wet bias or a tendency to see sleet as snow. that being said... it could be onto something. WAA with these classic Miller A’s tend to overproduce.
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Temps appear to mainly be cooler than modeled thus far. No model had me at 22 at midnight. HP also appears to be better positioned / a weeeee bit stronger on the UKIE
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22/19 elevation: 500 ft nice to see dew points in the teens ahead of the event New WSW issued for 6-12”
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Is it normal to see so much variation among ensemble members this close to an event? I know some variation is normal but 1-2” of snow to slop versus 6+ in dc seems pretty wild this close to the event. Those 30-40 miles could mean everything for some
