jayyy

Nice to see watches up along 95. Looks to only be through Sunday night too

When I said models are converging on a solution envelop - I meant that they are much closer with their solutions than they were 48 hours ago. Of course, there are still key differences between models (the ones I mentioned), but models are absolutely getting closer, not further apart. That’s all I was saying. 0z tonight should be the beginning of a consensus with the storm arriving 24-36 hours out from there. We’ll see.

0z tonight we will have our final consensus. Looks like models, while having subtle differences with confluence, vort, and the trough... are definitely converging on a solution envelop. our typical fears as mid atlantic residents are alive and well here.... will the primary transfer be clean, will it be far enough south, and will h5/h7 pass by and then close in a favorable position near CHO to allow the precip shield to blossom on the NW flank and not just firehose up into Delaware / NJ. NYC, NJ, and coastal NE will score big from this. I’ve lived in a thousand times up that way and I’ve said it for nearly a week - this has NYC Miller b special written all over it. That being said, we can cash on 6-12+ Type storm even with nyc being jacked if the cards fall into place on the transfer. Tonight’s 0z NAM, RGEM and GFS will be extremely key

Over 80% of guidance gives us warning snowfall, including 3-6” of white gold from the initial WAA thump... you’d think it was going to be 45 and rainy by the reactions we’re seeing from folks in this thread. This is why I despise accumulation maps from models 60+ hours out. They set horrific expectations. Nobody should ever read those maps verbatim and think they’re seeing 40” from a Miller b in a Niña year. That’s just insanity. The same folks get burned EVERY. SINGLE. TIME by those maps. I know people are snow starved - I feel you. Trust me, and I empathize. But guys.... Let’s keep it together. Let’s make mappy’s job easier and keep this thread about meaningful discussion, analysis. We have a banter thread for a reason. I apologize if this is out of place, mappy, but there is a 70+% chance a large majority of the CWA will see warning level snowfall and the cliff diving every other post is getting a little ridiculous (and distracting us from engaging in meaningful discussion) Love you all, but let’s get a grip and get back to business.

Curious to see how the trough looks on the next euro run. If its even more positively tilted, we are definitely heading in the wrong direction for a biggie.

You’re talking too much sense for this board my friend. 6+ area wide is a really solid storm in a Nina. But hey, unless we get 1-2 feet, it’s a dud apparently.

Wouldn’t worry about what NAM shows after 60. It’s not in range. NAM is in range to analyze the WAA however, which looks pretty solid. ninja’d by Jaydreb

Actually think Germantown over to Columbia is in a good spot for this one. Far enough north, but also far enough south. This storm has MocoHoCo band written all over it.

Just about getting into Nam’s sweet spot

GFS shows 8+ for most of the area and people are cliff diving. LOL. Good god. got mocked for it the other day... but some have got to get a grip over this whole “foot plus snowfall or nothing” mindset. It’s a little ridiculous.

As long as euro keeps the timely transfer, we move on to tomorrow mornings suite in a great spot.

Nah. PA sees the most on the ICON. York rt-30 area. Check out the maps

Staying up here it is

Wow. DC to NYC along 95 get crushed

Unreal run. You can cut 25% of that QPF likely but still.

Columbia deathband is alive and well!!! Going to see how the mesos handle this within 60 to see if I’m going down to Howard county for this one or not.

Looks like almost 18” from Baltimore metro north and 24+ in York. Wild

Am I crazy or is DT’s map actually reasonable come on 0z!!!!

This is primarily the WAA right? Wow

Score. 1+ QPF all snow up this way. About 1.3” by my brothers in Ellicott city, but they could very well see 0.25” of QPF in the form of slop. Trying to decide where to be for this one. Climo says stay put. This setup, however, gives me the feeling the eastern half of the CWA west of the bay has the best chance to score from the coastal. Decisions, decisions!

Can’t wait for 8:30! Should be getting the 18z EPS around then correct?

Saturday Night A chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Sunday Snow. High near 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Night Snow. Low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Monday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Night A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 50%. This is the PZF for my brother’s location in ellicott city, MD. All snow. Interesting.... to say the least.

I may need to go down to my brothers in ellicott city for this one. Seems the western suburbs get both smoked with qpf and hold onto temps. Whoever is JUST west of the mix line and remains all snow will jack

Agreed. Most likely screw zone would be NW zones. Caught between a dying primary and a developing coastal. That vort is going to be key.

That’s a NAM’ing 84 and beyond for 90% of the sub