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jayyy

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Posts posted by jayyy

    FOLKS Feb 19-20 Debacle

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Maybe a slightly further north and more dynamic precip shield then modeled. dc dusting seems plausible tomorrow and again Thursday before the HECS-that PSU-promised finally happens in late Feb early March

    You peep the long range thread? Obviously taken with a minuscule grain of salt but that was one of the most weenie gfs runs we’ve had in a long time
    • Like 1

    FOLKS Feb 19-20 Debacle

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Obviously the chance of a complete short term model bust is like 0.1%, but curious if anybody who’s better at reading maps sees anything of note when comparing what models show to current 500mb/h5 obs. Particularly in regards to the ULL

    FOLKS Feb 19-20 Debacle

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    It was the first model to start spitting out outrageous accumulation amounts in 2016. Everyone laughed about 40 inches out this way. It was right. 

    To be fair, it almost always spits out heavy accumulations. We just happened to get them that time
    • Like 1

    FOLKS Feb 19-20 Debacle

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    There's a bias in play here. Gfs/gefs was getting ripped when it was weak and disorganized while the euro was going big. It was assumed to be wrong and would catch on to the euro. I looked at if different. To me it was a consistent warning sign that a cohesive storm had some problems. More that one. 
    It seems like a model collapse when consensus showed the northern piece being a thorn instead of a boom. But there were plenty of warning signs not to jump on the boom bandwagon and I never did. Never doubted an OK storm, but those big totals never seemed real to me. 
    I'll say this, this place would be a lot more fun if people would stop marrying mid range high end fantasy stuff. Anything less is unacceptable but less is a near certainty.... time and time again over and over lol. The majority of our storms are looked at with turd colored glasses come gametime  because of this. Even when it produces what's expected in the short range. 

    People not posting clown maps 150+ hours out would go a long way.
    • Like 1

    FOLKS Feb 19-20 Debacle

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    That Millersville met is keeping me from giving it all up.
    I’m no H5/H7 expert but I vaguely recall some runs before Feb 9-10 2010 where the surface didn’t match what the vort maps showed.

    That’s true. We used to see positive busts back then. Happened ALL the time when I lived in New York. Problem is models have gotten way better over the past 14 years, so the likelihood is a lot lower. That being said… it’s not impossible.

    February Medium/Long Range Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    EPS was a pretty notable improvement. stronger ULL and less confluence

    Yessir. Tough suite tonight overall but glad to see the euro improve under the hood vs 18z. It’s in its wheelhouse right now and as PSU pointed out, it schooled most other guidance wrt today’s storm at this range. Doesn’t mean this can’t still fail, but at least the bleeding stopped.

    By tomorrow night the storm will be over the CONUS, so hopefully things become clearer (and snowier) by tomorrow’s 00z runs
    • Like 2

    February Medium/Long Range Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    No it really wasnt. It was possibly a hold. POSSIBLY. 

    Disagree there. The mean is clearly NW of 18z. DC and Baltimore see a few more inches of snow and the purples make it further north in Jersey. Pretty clear there. The vort is also more consolidated leading in if I’m seeing that correctly.
    • Like 1

    February Medium/Long Range Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Might need to see 12z tomorrow just to make sure that's happening. I will say that 0z looked better than 18z to my amateur eyes.

    I mean it did cut his snow by like 40%. But if we’re solely basing our comparison on the resulting clown maps… it’s my opinion that it’s not a massive difference when you zoom out and look at the whole region. Maximum area in VA is nearly the same. Total snowfall in Baltimore is the same. The EPS is better and QPF bumped.

    That being said.. I’d love to see things move further in our direction by tomorrow’s 12z and 0z runs.. Hoping we things trend back toward a more consolidated vort and a full phase

    February Medium/Long Range Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted


    I usually never look at the ukie. The Canadian is utter garbage and gfs struggles with complex storms so really it’s gfs vd euro

    Precisely my point. I mean don’t get me wrong.. I’m skeptical as hell about the euro’s outcome given seasonal trends, but it’s also THE model people shouldn’t ignore, especially in its bread and butter range. Perhaps I’m wishcasting. If it caves tomorrow, we’re likely cooked.. but for now.. not all hope is lost for at least some snow out of this.

    February Medium/Long Range Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Man the Euro is always stubborn. 

    It’s also very much in its wheelhouse 4 days out. NAM surely isn’t… but it shows a similar progression at h5 between hours 48-72. Don’t get me wrong… I’m discouraged by the fact that the Canadian gfs and ukie were dog shit… but 2/3 of those models kinda suck
    • Like 1
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