jayyy

My parents have two simultaneous WWAs in effect. 2-4” today, 2-4” tomorrow. Mofos

Will be very interesting to see how Mesos look going forward.

Unfortunately I’m like 95% sure it struggles with precip depiction. But the more the merrier regardless- I’d just chop this down by a quarter. 

For sure taken with a grain of salt. All we should be taking away from these ensembles is that cold air availability and moisture transport could be plentiful over the next 3 weeks.

Gonna need to change my briefs after that 12z ensemble suite. Lordy.

AI EPS at 12z just had its best run of the Winter just going by the snow map for the upcoming 15 days.

That’s the ensemble mean? lol. AI EPS gone wild

But in a Nino we dont always have the cold air with the NS being more lax. We can thank this Nina for the abundance of arctic air around, imho.

So we need a la niño?

That was fucking awesome. Forget details and 0c lines this far out. Cold air a plenty and an active southern jet is chefs kiss.

Mt Holly is not at all impressed with tomorrow. Not sure why. Are temps the issue?
 
 
 
 

Thats a very reasonable forecast, IMO. 0.5-1” with colder areas (NNW) and areas seeing more precip (east) seeing the upper end of that range is a very common sense climo based approach to a storm that’s largely going to miss us. Could we boom and many of us see 1-3”? Sure, it’s possible… but mt holly isn’t going to put out a new map based on the RAP and HRRR 24 hours out

I’ll hug the Herpderp as well for tomorrow

Pics or it didn’t happen

Fwiw 15z Rap a decent compromise for areawide snow tomorrow. 
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026011715&fh=42&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Shit, I’d take another 1-2” (TWSS) especially since today and tomorrow looked dead 48 hours ago.

Looking at the RAP and HRRR 24 hours out is a dangerous game to play though. Has my parents getting 6-8” in the Hudson valley. No other model is nearly that aggressive

So listen....

FO… ?

Don’t think the GFS is gonna do it on this run, but booooy the potential is there for something big to come across the country.

Wow those were the fattest flakes I've seen in awhile! And...the first time I've gotten under a yellow band in who knows how long  Nice surprise!

Congrats! Just a small appetizer to gird your loins before we get cooked Jan 22 - February 10

Looking like there’s 1.5-2” OTG at home… in line with the WWA in place

0.4” in EC

Is this for tomorrow? Where are we talking about that? Can we get some threads lol. Gfs looks like tomorrow is congrats NYC.

Tomorrow would be in the 16-19th thread

I’m intrigued for tomorrow. Come on SR models. Do your thing

Nailed it. Temps have not been an issue, it’s just moisture or lack there of. Hopefully that changes in the next 2-3 weeks. 

It’s certainly felt like winter all season. Now let’s get some moisture up in here!!!!

Yeah I was concerned about pac energy breaking apart the +pna and torching canada, but recent ens runs stop short of doing that and still maintain western ridging. Canada will warm up yes, but we may stay NN/BN in the east and during this window that’s all we need. 

Been pretty remarkable to watch models back off long range depictions for 5+ straight months now. Can’t remember the last time we saw such a thing - especially in our favor. LR models continue to show our PAC pattern getting obliterated, they drop a deep trough into the PAC NW and pump a SE ridge downstream.. and it just never materializes. We end up losing the favorable PAC for a short time with some transient warmups and then things reload. Over and over again. Not sure how ENSO will impact any of this as we lose the Niña… but generally speaking, if we can get the STJ going with the 500mb setup we’ve had in place most of winter, the next 3 weeks has the *POTENTIAL* to be the best period we’ve had since 14-15

For tomorrow, looks like things trended favorably for some snow back to I-95 and even some guidance going west of that! NAM Nest has actually been steady last few runs with its presentation. If it nails the thermals, this could be a sneaky good storm for the eastern shore. HRRR and RRFS aren’t as keen on it, but they are both outside their useful range. Just hope they aren’t on to something. 
 
Happy for everyone getting snow this morning! Pictures look great. Keep them coming!  

I know it’s the 12k NAM but 6z had 2-3” all the way back into central MD. Curious to see if the NAM holds strong on that idea today.

Ok really good burst happening.  If this can continue for like just 15 mins I could measure something.

Nice burst at my brother’s place in Ellicott city right now too. Beautiful out there right now.

Some nice fatties falling at my brothers house in EC near turf valley

New 3-4 week CPC keeps us cold to mid February

"Winter before an El Nino the next year" has been working out great this Winter so far. Here it is for February:

If we can manage a BN or even slightly BN February, (which would be pretty wild considering November - January was also BN) coupled with the STJ waking up… we could see a monster before the pattern eventually breaks down. Obviously all speculation but the ingredients seem to be coming together for the January 24 - February 10 timeframe to possibly be very special.

AIFS ensemble mean is lit up. Lord

Euro AI is like 12-15" of cold powder verbatim

Show us the dirty pics

Had to drive home during happy hour. What did I miss!? A few cutters and a few congrats Boston bombs? Fuck it. Winter is over. Cancel it. I’m out…getting more beers to help me with my stupid ass thoughts. 
 

Lemme catch you up:

there was a 5-10” storm on the 18z gfs… It’ll disappear in about 3 hours on the next OP run and weenies will jump off ledges. Meanwhile, Cape bashes his head into a wall for having to repeat that people should be looking at ensembles this far out.

You’re caught up. Now go drink