RodneyS

Big shake-up after today's numbers came in, with RickinBaltimore now the very tenuous leader -- tenuous because he has negative departures at each airport. Mordecai is in good position to take the lead if a little more snow is reported overnight, as his departures are all positive.

Thanks -- the below table further updates the current IAD total, which looks like will undergo a major update come Monday.

Today's brief squall added another 0.1 at Dulles.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -2.8 -0.9 -0.4 -0.8 -2.8 -0.2 0.9 0.6 -0.3

December 2024 at DCA averaged 41.9 degrees, 0.2 above the 1991-2020 normal and tied for the 32nd warmest December in DC history. The bigger news is that calendar year 2024 at DCA averaged 61.8 degrees, which broke the previous DC calendar year record high average of 61.6, which was set in 2012.

A Christmas Eve mini-ice storm today ruined LongRanger's bid for a perfect score, but he still maintains his lead.

You're welcome. This contest is always a lot of fun -- especially when you win, as you did five years ago.

See below summary table. We have 69 entrants this year, which is about halfway between two years ago (64 entrants) and last year (75 entrants). 52 of our 69 entrants this year played last year, and 17 either played two years or more ago or are new to the contest. The forecasts are generally lower this year. Specifically, here are this season's mean forecasts for each airport, with last year's mean forecasts in parentheses: BWI 14.1 (25.5), DCA 9.3 (18.4), IAD 16.0 (28.1), RIC 6.8 (13.5). The actual totals last year were: BWI 11.3, DCA 8.0, IAD 11.7, RIC 0.7. So this year's forecasts are in line with last year's actuals, with the exception of RIC, which presumably last year was an aberration for the second straight time.

November 2024 at DCA has for sure broken the record high average November DC temperature of 54.8 degrees, which was set in 2001. DCA finished at 55.2, which resulted in a record high January-November average of 63.6, beating the previous 11-month record of 63.1, which was set in 2012. That puts DCA on course to break the previous DC calendar year record of 61.6, also set in 2012. All that is needed is for DCA to average 39.0 degrees or higher in December -- 39.0 would be 2.7 degrees below the 1991-2020 normal. Note: Edited on December 1st because the final November 2024 DCA temperature average was 55.2, rather than 55.1

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -3.7 -3.2 -3.2 -2.5 -3.6 -1.5 2.9 2.6 1.1 DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BuF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV 5.8 22.0 38.5 42.5 45.0 99.0 58.0 9.5 85.0

Reminder: The deadline for this contest is fast approaching: Sunday, December 1, at 11:59 PM EST -- the contest will lock then, and no late entries will be permitted. So, if you have not entered thus far and wish to do so, follow my below example (except for using the same numbers) and do it now. BWI: 9.6" DCA: 5.8" IAD: 12.1" RIC: 6.1" Tiebreaker (SBY): 5.4"

FYI, Reagan National Airport received a trace of snow today. I mention this because on only two previous occasions since this contest began did DCA receive a trace or more in November. The first time was the first year of the contest, when DCA received a trace on both November 13th and 26th, 2014. During the 2014-15 snow season, DCA received 18.3 inches of snow. The second time was six years ago, when DCA received 1.4 inches on November 15th, 2018. During the 2018-19 snow season, DCA received 16.9 inches of snow. Both of those years were Weak El Ninos, and so you can draw your own conclusions as to whether November snow has any predictive value this season.

Okay, so I'll list your current guess for DCA as 2.5 inches.

@Scarlet Pimpernel Does that mean that your actual DCA guess is zero?

Thanks.

@IronTyDp you have a tiebreaker for LYH or SBY?

Today reached 84 at DCA, the warmest temperature ever in DC from November 5th to February 24th. February 25, 1930 also reached 84, and the first day in a calendar year to exceed that was March 8, 2000, which reached 85.

You omitted RIC.

Your point is well-taken. I just did an analysis that shows that the DCA October 2024 average maximum of 73.0 (3.6 degrees above the 1991-2020 normal) tied for the 8th warmest in DC history. On the other hand, the DCA October 2024 average minimum of 53.0 (0.8 degrees above the 1991-2020 normal) tied for the 27th warmest in DC history. So, in contrast to many recent months over many recent years, the average maximum was much further above the recent normal than the average minimum was. As a personal observation, when you couple the DCA October 2024 maximum range of 60 to 83 degrees and the minimum range of 44 to 67 degrees with only 1.48 inches of precipitation (all of which fell on the first two days of the month), a case can be made that October 2024 was the best month in DC history for sunny and pleasant weather.

Your tiebreaker could be the key to victory . . . but not necessarily your victory.

I have rounded up your forecasts for DCA, IAD, and RIC to 2.4, 2.8, and 2.3, respectively. If you want them rounded down, let me know. Note to everyone: Forecasting snow to the nearest 1/100th of an inch does not make any sense because official statistics are kept only to the nearest 1/10th of an inch.

It's time for the 11th annual Mid-Atlantic snowfall contest! First, thanks to @Roger Smith for pointing out that last year's contest, which was billed as the 9th one, was actually the 10th, as Roger unearthed records of the first one, which occurred during the 2014-15 snow season, and was won by @nw baltimore wx. So he has been added below to the list of previous winners, including last year's winner @Kmlwx Second, those who participated last year will recollect the consensus that a Strong El Nino was going to end the Mid-Atlantic snow drought, but that did not happen. So, it appears that snow lovers in our region will have to put their faith in a Weak La Nina this snow season. That may not sound too promising, but perhaps the consensus will be wrong again. Also, I note that we are nearing a solar maximum, which just maybe will somehow, some way upset the apple cart and bring ample snowfall to the Mid-Atlantic. In any event, the focus of this contest is forecasting the total snow that will fall during the 2024-25 snow season at BWI International (BWI), Reagan National (DCA), Dulles International (IAD), and Richmond International Airport (RIC). In the event a tiebreaker is required (that happened 6 years ago), please choose one of the following two airports: Salisbury, MD (SBY) or Lynchburg, VA (LYH). Choose only one. Please note that you are forecasting the total snowfall for the entire snow season (NOT just Dec/Jan/Feb) to the nearest one-tenth of an inch. Generally, snow does not fall after early April at any of these airports, and so the contest is usually finalized by early to mid-April. The winner will be the entrant who has the lowest combined absolute value departure for all four airports. For example, if you forecast: BWI: 0.0" DCA: 0.0" IAD: 0.0" RIC: 10.0" And the actual seasonal totals turn out to be: BWI: 2.5" DCA: 2.5" IAD: 2.5" RIC: 2.5" Your absolute value departures would be: BWI: 2.5 DCA: 2.5 IAD: 2.5 RIC: 7.5 Thus, your total departure would be 15.0. Please use the following format when posting your forecast, in this order: BWI: DCA: IAD: RIC: Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH): The deadline for entries is Sunday, December 1, at 11:59pm. You are welcome to update your forecast at any time up to the deadline. However, please do not edit your original post -- either submit a new post or send me a private message. If there's any accumulating snow before the deadline, please include that in your forecast as well. I think the best approach is to submit your forecast in advance of the deadline and update if necessary, just in case you get tied up on December 1st, when the contest will lock -- no late entries will be accepted. The winner gets an E-trophy made of snow and an induction into the Hall of Fame with the previous winners: 2014-15: @nw baltimore wx@S@S@Shadowzone 2015-16: @Shadowzone@Stormpchadowzone 2016-17: @StormpcStormpchadowzone 2017-18: @olafminesaw@Storm @olafminesaw 2018-19: @olafminesaw (tiebreaker win against @Stormpc) @Stormpc 2019-20: @Prestige Worldwide 2020-21: @NorthArlington101 2021-22: @IUsedToHateCold 2022-23: @LittleVillageWx 2023-24: @Kmlwx Everyone is encouraged to play, including lurkers, new members, and people outside the region. Good luck everyone!

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.1 1.4 1.3 2.9 2.0 2.5 -0.3 -1.5 0.6

October 2024 averaged 63.0 degrees at DCA -- 2.2 degrees above the 1991-2020 normal and tied for the 15th warmest October in DC history. January-October 2024 averaged 64.5 at DCA, 2nd warmest in DC history, behind 2012 (64.7).