RodneyS

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -2.8 1.8 2.1 -0.5 1.0 -0.8

If it's any consolation, you were one of the 10 contestants to outperform the Capital Weather Gang, with a total departure of 5.8 inches at DCA, IAD, and BWI vs. 6.9 for the CWG.

I posted this on the Washington Post Capital Weather Gang page, regarding the 2021-22 CWG snow forecast for DCA, IAD, and BWI: "Very respectable snow forecast. On American Weather Forums, the winner for the smallest departure from the actual snow that fell at the three area airports plus Richmond International was 4.6 inches. Excluding Richmond, the winner's total departure for DCA, IAD, and BWI was 3.3 inches vs a total departure of 6.9 inches for the CWG's midpoint forecast at those three airports. Overall, the CWG forecast would have placed 11th out of 59 entries, if Richmond were not included."

I'm pretty sure that what you list are all hail reports. For some reason, hail seems to have been reported in some years, but not others. Consider that on July 1, 1990, the official Reagan National Airport report is: High Low Prcp Snow 90 69 0.44 Trace

I don't have all the numbers handy, but for Washington DC, according to https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter_DC-Winters: Latest Snowfall = Trace on May 10, 1906; .5 inches on Apr. 28, 1898

I second the congratulations and commend PFWx for his outstanding job of running the contest for the last several years. With the assistance of his spreadsheet, for which he has already provided me important use instructions, I will attempt to keep the contest running smoothly.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.6 0.4 1.3 -1.2 1.2 1.4 0.8 1.6 -0.4

Not so fast -- if there is a huge volcanic eruption that blocks out the sun for several weeks, I still have a chance. And if there are several huge volcanic eruptions, Roger Smith still has a chance. And if Doomsday arrives early, George BM still has a chance.

I'm hoping for a repeat of 1990. That year featured the earliest cherry blossom peak bloom on March 15th. On April 6th and 7th, a 2-day storm dropped 3.8 inches of snow at Dulles.

Looks as though DCA's snow total yesterday was revised up to 0.9 from 0.8.

Tough sledding today for LittleVillageWx, with IUsedToHateCold now in command but WEATHER53 and Rest of Field lurking.

It looks like LittleVillageWx is going to hold on in Richmond, leaving WEATHER53 as his biggest challenger. If on Saturday BWI gets 0.6 inches, DCA gets 0.2 inches, IAD an inch or so, and RIC 0.1 inch, that puts WEATHER53 into the lead, with limited chances for any more snow this season. I would handicap the win probability as follows: LittleVillageWx 40% WEATHER53 35% IUsedToHateCold 15% Rest of Field: 10%

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.2 4.2 1.3 -0.6 0.3 -1.4

February 2022 at DCA did not come close to matching March 2014 in either of the above categories, but did manage to tie for 20th in official DC weather history in the first one, with 1802 months now in the books. That's still quite impressive, especially since it's the second highest in the last 35 years. You wil note that all of these months are in either January (4), February (6), March (8), or April (3): Highest Average Daily Change in Maximum Temperature March 2014, 12.42 February 1900, 12.11 March 1934, 11.94 March 1923, 11.71 March 1911, 11.58 January 1950, 11.32 March 1935, 11.29 February 1893, 11.04 February 1917, 10.96 March 1907, 10.90 February 1918, 10.89 March 1987, 10.87 April 1965, 10.83 April 1926, 10.77 January 1937, 10.74 March 1890, 10.74 April 1936, 10.70 January 1885, 10.65 January 1890, 10.65 February 1883 10.64 February 2022, 10.64

Thanks. In doing the search for largest daily average temperature declines, I found some inconsistencies in the data. At first, I thought the largest decline occurred on January 13, 1895, as the average temperature that day is listed as 9.0 degrees, with January 12, 1895 listed as 37.5 degrees. However, I then saw that the listed range on the 12th is 27 to 48, whereas the listed range on the 13th is 4 to 14. So, presumably what happened is that the Weather Bureau employee was at his station for a good portion of the day on the 12th, but left well before midnight with the temperature falling. By midnight, it may have been say, 20, but no one was there to record it. By the time he arrived on the 13th, the temperature was between 4 and 14, and so that's what he recorded, but the true range on the 12th would have been 20 to 48 (average 34), and the true range on the 13th would have been 4 to 20 (average of 12), and so the actual decline would have been only 22 degrees. I'm not sure when an automated temperature recorder was used in DC, but I believe all those anomalies occur prior to 1900.

I just posted this on the Capital Weather Gang page: Yesterday, DCA recorded the largest decline in daily high temperature this century. The high on Wednesday was 77, but it plummeted to 42 yesterday, for a decline of 35 degrees. That was the largest since December 23, 1998, when the high temperature declined by 39 degrees -- from 67 on December 22nd to 28 on December 23rd. The largest daily high temperature decline in DC history occurred on March 19, 1934, when the decline was 41 degrees -- from 78 on March 18th to 37 on March 19th. Also, yesterday's decline in daily average temperature of 22 degrees at DCA -- from 59.5 on Wednesday to 37.5 yesterday -- was the largest since February 9, 2017, when average temperature declined by 23.5 degrees -- from 62.5 on February 8th to 39 on February 9th. The largest daily average temperature decline in DC history occurred on January 29, 1934, when the decline was 28 degrees -- from 49.5 on January 28th to 21.5 on January 29th.

No, I was not up until after the snow had stopped. But the snow that had drifted over my car was amazing, particularly since nothing of that magniture had been forecast.

Since today is the 43rd anniversary of PD 1 (it actually began on Sunday afternoon and evening, February 18, 1979 with 4.7 inches of snow at DCA, but 14.0 inches fell on the morning of February 19th), I thought I would weigh in with my memory of that event. When I went to bed on Sunday evening in my apartment in Reston, Virginia, the forecast was for about 6 inches total. When I first looked out the window Monday morning at my apartment parking lot, I wondered if my eyes were deceiving me because I could not see my car! It was an electrifying moment that is still frozen in my mind. Many huge storms have come and gone since, but none have come close to matching that moment.

I thought you might jump into the lead and close out LittleVillageWx, based on RIC receiving 0.2 inches of snow with 0.04 inches of precipitation. But RIC reported only a trace of snow, and so LVWx is still the leader in the clubhouse.

January 2022 at DCA averaged 34.6 degrees, which was 2.9 degrees below the new 1991-2020 normal and 0.7 degrees below the 1871-2022 DC historical January average. It was also the coldest month at DCA since February 2015, which averaged only 30.3 degrees. Perhaps the most unusual aspect ot January 2022 at DCA was that the temperature there was 13.0 degrees below December 2021 -- the 5th largest decline in DC history for those two months, with December 2015 to January 2016 being the largest, at 16.3 degrees.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.7 0.3 0.7 -0.9 2.1 -0.7 -1.2 0.4 -0.8

RIC has now been revised to 4.3 inches.

It looks as if your hope was realized, assuming the latest snow totals are not revised. They show the following: BWI 13.3, DCA 12.3, IAD 11.4, and RIC 3.6. According to my calculation, that puts Little Village Wx in the lead with 8.0 vs 8.9 for you. However, the best you can do is finish with 5.1 and if you do, Little Village Wx will have 5.0.

I agree with your numbers and analysis. I still think something is wrong with last Sunday's IAD snow report, but I inquired of the lwx webmaster and never heard back.

Interesting analysis, Roger. I think this would be a great topic for a research-oriented meteorologist or PhD candidate to investigate.