weatherpruf

I don't think too many folks take it seriously right now. The only ones who seem to pore over it are weather geeks and people who make a living based on weather patterns, from traders to heating and gas people. farmers too I guess, but then they have to plant and hope for the best most of the time. Every year someone comes up to me and says he heard it was going to be a loooong cold winter, and the squirrels are gathering nuts ( which of course is what they always do, when they aren't stealing my tomatoes ) and look how fat they are! Or their dog is shedding early. Or the Farmer's Almanac says....and the Old Farmers Almanac says....and JB says ( they all have about the same accuracy ).....and then it snows in Oct or Nov and that's all she wrote....( ok extreme examples )

I've heard this about Denver more than once. Is that the case even in mid winter? Or is it a late winter thing?

All of them lame winters too, save for the 06 blizzard that delivered 2 foot in a narrow sliver; had about 18 inches out here but still better than anything in recent years IMBY and that includes last March ( Jan 2016 was great, but it was so at odds with the rest of the year it is hard to remember it fondly )

Lack of snow is one thing. Freakish warmth is another. I've lived through droughts that resulted in low snow too. Lack of precip has not been the issue this year. And as for spring-like weather, after 56 years I can tell you what that is in NJ; rain, east winds, south winds, more rain, southeast winds, more rain, followed by blustery westerly winds for a day, then more rain. This goes on until mid May, when it suddenly hits the 80's and flirts with 90. And then it rains again. You can never string enough nice days together in April to do much of anything. Never could.

The problem is that there isn't much "ahead" left.....and nothing has worked out so far. It would be unwise to bank on a big storm this winter. Maybe a significant one can happen. This all depends on the elusive pattern changes talked about for months now, which haven't come to fruition. Ask any mariner, a crap pattern can lock in and stay that way for a long time. Ask any captain at the shore how their season was. Not just a weekend or two, but their whole season. The truth is none of us really knows. But days and days of freak warm weather in early Feb doesn't seem to bode well, especially when prior to a week or so ago no one banked on it.

Really? That wouldn't make you the least bit concerned? Besides, in this region, you are never going to have nice weather for too many days in a row, I don't care how warm, hot, or cold it is. As a lifelong angler who is at the mercy of the weather gods, I can assure you of that. At the very least it will be crappy on any day you have available to do something.

Why listen to him? He's a fool and probably got addled from steroid use.

I don't leave the house once it gets over 85. I pump the AC and that's it.

I like it fine, just not in the middle of the winter. Just like I wouldn't want 30 degrees in July. Because it's abnormal.

Got bit by a lone star tick last year; ticks are pretty much active unless there is a big freeze going on. And they can survive a wash cycle too. And watch your pets as well. I have the treated socks; some experts are not impressed with Deet and recommend the treated clothes.

If by gradual progression he mean over a few weeks, then yes, that would be spring. perhaps I misunderstood.

A gradual progression is spring....

One piddly event in late March, delivers 3-5 NW and a slushy coating here, followed by rainy weather in April.

If you hate snow, it's rockin.....to a person everyone I talk to is thrilled with the lack of snow.

It makes you feel alive in late March or April. In early Feb it makes you wonder what is going so radically wrong. And it's not just this winter; I've seen temps into the 60's, 70's, and last 80 in midwinter for quite some time now, going back a ways.....but i don't remember seeing them in the 70's or 80's very often, if at all.

All in the modern era except for two ( though even they are considered to be modern era using broader definitions; I know, someone will jump in to say no one kept records in the Stone Age. Save it. )

Clouds of knats flying about near my front door. This is ridiculous. At this rate we can start thinking of Feb as a spring month. Last year it either reached or got up to 80.

That wasn't much to the west, we only got a dusting. had folks up from S America who had never seen a winter before, and it was so warm most of the time they really didn't see much. Lotta warm rain though. This year we had real cold though.

Ok thanks. Doesn't make any sense to me, but you're a pro and I'll go with that.

The only snowstorm in the lame winter of 95 was in Feb, I wonder if the reasons were similar. It was a decent event.

Oy.SMH.

Can we forecast for next winter yet? Just as likely to verify....

Hah! And if my aunt had...well you know the rest.

I think there is something to that. If it bleeds, it leads.....remember the "bomb cyclone?" it was really just an ordinary snowstorm, you'd have thought it was the blizzard of the century. But "intense snowstorm" just doesn't have the same ring to it....and with social media today every happy jack talks about the Euro and the GFS.....

Are ye new here Skipper? everyone here knows I don't know jack....