weatherpruf

it has to be said, every storm....

people were jonesing for a big daddy and we aren't getting one, barring some miracle, and now they are not going to be happy with more normal amounts. 6 of snow with sleet on top is just barely above run of the mill; even 10 is not the apocalypse some people want. but think back to last year, or other years when we couldn't buy anything but 2-3 inches of sleet for an entire winter. in my heart i think we probably end up with lower amounts in a setup like this, but no one designated me the weather wizard. get some salt and shovels ready, as always, milk, bread, butter, beer....a winter storm is coming!

i remember that, as mitchell volk himself weighed in the night before with doubts about a blizzard that big in march in nyc, based on history. mitch was iirc the retired met for the mayor's office or something. he was correct. it still was a decent storm for more interior areas. of course.

Sure I’d like a big daddy but I’ll take one if these several times in a winter any time. We still have our snowiest month coming up. This might not be it for us. .

I think the concern is that sleet always shows up earlier than expected. .

All lousy events out here so I hope Not .

Thank you for service to your community. I’m retired staff from a school district and know you folks are out there at insane hours when most of us are curled up waiting for the storm to pass. Keep that thermos filled. .

I don’t know if you were around for the 93 superstorm but that’s similar to what happened here, even in March it stuck around for awhile. We got screwed out of the 2 feet the south got, but it was enough to shut schools for days. About 11 inches encased in ice. .

I think in these setups you have to get out and do what you can before a change over. Unless you are commercial. .

I think this is the key in that the conditions just don’t favor those big coastals anymore. But this year it’s finding a way to snow. At least we’re not sitting on a month of 45 and cloudy or 2007s endless rain. In the early 90s conditions didn’t favor any snow at all for several years. Then 93 and 94 happened. .

The weather service sees the sleet and even rain potential. It is likely. .

So… what are the pros saying at nws…my holly says a good thump but we probably see even plain rain all the way to the coastal plain with everything in between…. Upton sees sleet doesn’t mention much about rain. What’s probably off the table: a 2 foot blizzard. What could happen; a decent snow that mixes in all the suspect places. What happens in the south and mid Atlantic is not of any interest to me or mine, but I do not wish ice and snow on them because most people there don’t want or like snow and no one in their right mind likes ice. Finally, the weather services say there is a strong guidance for 6 inches plus and maybe 10, they just can’t nail it down and upton is hesitant to put a watch up but considered it. So, after a boring couple winters, are you not entertained? .

pretty good response, i gotta say. also, if you're gonna have a bust, march is a likely time to see one.

how many years has it been since rome was sacked? some things cannot be let go.....

we are getting spoiled already...had some piddly events, everyone was mostly ok with it after last year, and now feeling let down that there might just be a nasty storm that could be a few inches of snow and sleet, when in other winters we'd kill for that. i'm no fan of sleet, but on top of snow with some cold, it can look wintry for awhile. we are too far from game time to know.

thanks

so what model would you consider the best, knowing of course that none of them are perfect...there was a met the other day that said this would not come north...lol

does that really mean anything either....this is days away; best we can say is there is some weather ahead. that's all. be prepared either way. it does not hurt to be prepared.

i don't know how, after all this time, folks can confidently talk about a foot plus of snow when we have seen multiple cases of things changing radically even the day before. this was entirely predictable. it might still be wrong. it's only wednesday ffs.

and what can conclude from that analysis....not being snide.

there have been a few of these....jan 2015 and march 2017 come to mind.....and the infamous heavy snow warning of 2008 iirc...as for the valentine's 2007 sleet fest, that was warned about early on as that warm nose was well modeled before hand, i remember craig allen talking about it, and it was in one of those winters where it just did not want to snow here...

i had just started a new job in a school and we were out two days and the only thing that happened was some light sleet.....

made me laugh......i mean really...the connotations here....

when this poster gets serious, i pay attention; i remember this quote from Jan 2016; "this is a storm for the ages.."

thankfully uncommon in this area....still remember 94. ouch. my butt still hurts....hint; don't walk out on the ice....