PrinceFrederickWx

Yes, the "better sampling when it comes onshore" and "6z/18z are of lower quality because they ingest less data" are both myths that have been debunked by those in the know, but I still see them often repeated here.

Meh, storms like this were the reason this thread got started in the first place. Probably all rain for SoMD.

A Ravens superbowl win is always an indicator of a snowless winter that ends with a massive storm bust in March… just sayin.

The 10-year futility record at BWI was 14.3" which happened twice: 1947-48 to 1956-57 and again from 1968-69 to 1976-77. So @snowfan is correct. However, if winter ended right now at BWI, we would have a new 10-year futility record of 12.8". In order to get above 14.3", BWI needs to score at least 15.7" this winter. So this year is essentially do-or-die. Eta: this is 10-year average, not raw numbers.

It’s not just the lack of snow that bothers me, it’s also that lately we seem to be unable to get a significant wintry event outside of January. I haven’t had a WSW event in February since 2016 and in March since 2018. Most Feb/Mar now here have been a near-shutout. Everyone says peak climo is until March 15, but increasingly it looks like it ends around January 31. So tbh, I’d like it even more if we really do score big this year in February or March. That would give me a lot more hope that winter isn’t being boxed in.

Udder disaster shit the blinds winter with guaranteed cold rain coming up.

I’m listening to this while reading PSU’s posts about the GEFS. It fits perfectly. We’re all doomed.

We keep buying snowpants for our kids and then donate them every year cause they never got worn. It’s becoming an annual tradition. Eta: in fact for our youngest two we bought rain suits cause they like to play in the rain. Those got a lot of use already.

Monthly total is up to 9.29” now. Yep, 50 and fog seems to be every day in December the last few years…

Storm total so far: 1.93” Monthly total so far: 9.16”

LMAO I’m almost ready to post the annual Omen scene already @WxWatcher007

Well I certainly don’t want to buy Easter stuff now. I was frustrated this holiday season with craft stores as most of them down here had already sold out of Christmas stuff we needed by mid-December, and were stocking Valentine’s stuff. The new thing seems to be that we have to buy Christmas stuff around Labor Day I guess lol

The region just doesn’t cool off at night anymore. That’s been the main story the last few years.

Big Lots already canceled winter. I went in there today looking for post-Christmas deals, only to find they had already put out Easter stuff for sale.

You all are gonna be stuck waiting on hold for months like @wxdude64 if we don’t get snow soon. Might just get a fast busy signal.

I get what you’re saying with how you did the forecast. Sorry… I’ve just been losing patience with “Deniers” lately (not you).

There’s actually a quite a few good posters on this forum (and other subforums) who have seen it, but I’ve watched them get insulted and/or run off. Not trying to insult anyone, just stating facts.

You should’ve stuck to your arguments from last year (which increasingly look to be correct) rather than throw your lot in with the weenie hivemind like you did in your seasonal forecast. This was why I went really low in my snowfall contest predictions. Hopefully I’m wrong…

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/21/weather/us-winter-temperatures-climate-change/index.html

The hivemind on the long range thread is all in on January.

Depends on what you mean. I do think it will snow this year, but I have been in the below-average camp since November.

Yeah the week after Christmas in 2017 was impressive cold: multiple subfreezing highs and lows in the single digits IMBY, which ended with a WSW early January. The only other time I’ve seen sustained cold like that here was February 2015.

I think this is the difference between myself and the long range thread people. They're interested in the process, but I'm interested in the results.

No. It occurred during our transition period to near-snowless hellscape.

Thank you for calling the newly launched AmWx Hotline of Hope, providing support for delusional weenies at an affordable price. Please select from one of the following options; or, stay on the line to hear recordings of Joe Bastardi’s winter forecasts. -To hear about SSW events, please press “1” -Siberian snowcover, please press “2” -MJO mumbojumbo, please press “3” -Earth’s magnetic poles reversing, please press “4” -To hear about how a giant asteroid impact would lead to additional snowfall in your backyard, please press “5”. Note that this option requires an additional fee.