PrinceFrederickWx

1.31” so far. Just a reminder that any extreme events on October 29 automatically means the winter will be a turd (Snowtober, Sandy, etc.)

A good rule of thumb is: whatever the models show for rain, move the decimal once to the left for Germantown, and once to the right for southern MD.

All of the big winters are like that though- even 13/14 and 09/10, both of which had long stretches of warm, snowless in between storms. We never do sustained cold and snowcover in this region so the question to me is more about why in the big years does everything seem to line up at just exactly the correct times over and over.

I understand it, as it's been the main problem I'm having when thinking about this winter. For the most part I'm leaning towards snowless, but there's some similarities I see with 95/96. My question with 95/96 though has always been if it was a 1/1,000 outlier event or something that's more likely given the right circumstances. It's never made sense to me for Mid-Atlantic snowfall vs. ENSO to have a bimodal distribution in weak La Nina and moderate El NIno- seems like one of those would flatten out over time as the sample grows larger (and the last 25 years seems to indicate the weak La Nina will be the one that flattens). ...anyway, for those that have messaged me, the snowfall contest will be posted early November. Should be interesting...

This seems like it’s going to be yet another overperformer IMBY. LWX called for 1/2” of rain today and we just blew right past that with no end in sight. If we can just hold this pattern for a few more weeks...

I just looked up by accident towards the north as soon as I stepped outside and already saw a Draconid meteor. This is gonna be a positive bust for once Mars, Saturn and Jupiter all look good- I might be out here all night!

I, too, avoid fast food and and am very active, but avoiding refined sugar is difficult as they hide it everywhere now (even in “healthy” foods).

My oldest is learning about weather in his 3rd grade class and he just showed me a 5-day forecast he drew (on his own for fun) that includes a hurricane, a tornado, a wildfire, a waterspout and a blizzard. Weenie gene has been inherited I see

Nice map- the summer creep into September is for real here.

Perfect telescope weather- my oldest son and I have been out this evening looking at Jupiter and Saturn.

Forecast was for sunny but instead it’s been cloudy all day and now I’m getting an isolated shower that’s not even on radar. This year...

2.4” since yesterday- here we go again.

We’ll never have a negative temp departure for September again in my lifetime (well... I guess eventually this will just be the average).

Can you believe I got completely shut out today? That only means one thing... winter is coming.

Only 0.11” today- not enough to get me over the 20” mark, so the final monthly total will be 19.79”

1.14” today 19.68” for the month 30.10” since July 1 ^Those aren’t typos

I’m at 18.36” for the month

2.09” of rain, most of this within the last hour. These totals were not forecast and caught me by surprise. @BlizzardNole This is most likely going to be another neighborhood flood...

Trust me, this will verify. 0.41% my ass- it’s 2020 https://thehill.com/homenews/news/513246-nasa-asteriod-headed-toward-earth-before-election

She's coming soon... (as long as NHC doesn't screw up and name the wrong one )

Ah, today should be a nice, mostly sunny day so we can continue to dry out this we- *looks at radar*

I moved here in 2013 and actually remember that the first two years I was here- I used to call it the Calvert split- every storm would find a way to miss. But then, starting around summer 2015... Anyway, I got 1.39” for this event. Glad it was on the lower end.

I’d love to know what it is about our microclimate that has us getting bull’s eyed over and over and over.

1.08” since midnight- it’s been a steady moderate rain for the last few hours.

Oh I had sent you another PM awhile back (not sure if you saw it).