Allsnow

26 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Playing out exactly as envisioned, meh 

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Probably going to be warned soon

Yup. Definitely not “meh” 

Monmouth County going to get crushed 

Line looks to be getting better organized as it heads east

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Maybe some moderate rain for us

Yup. Crazy how none of these threats dump rain in our area 

Radar definitely doesn’t look great 

10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Radar looks very blah

Areas affected...parts of the Mid Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 021945Z - 022045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An intensifying cluster of thunderstorms over northeast MD and eastern PA may pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts this afternoon. A WW is uncertain though convective trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...As of 1940 UTC, regional radar imagery showed scattered thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Mid Atlantic. Over the last hour, a cluster near the MD/PA border has slowly intensified with a notable increase in lightning and reflectively. Likely supported by subtle ascent from a passing shortwave and remnant convective outflows, 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE will likely continue to support strong updraft development/maintenance. Vertical shear is quite limited with flow generally less than 25 kt. Storm intensity will likely remain tied to forward propagation along advancing outflow with this cluster. The moderate buoyancy and large water loading will likely support a isolated stronger downdrafts with low-end potential for 50-60 mph gusts. Storms should track east/northeast through the afternoon across parts of eastern PA into NJ. Storm organization appears quite limited.

3 minutes ago, mgerb said:

Looking good for storms with further development out west, and starting to see some activity fire along the sea-breeze. 

Yes!!!

Models showing lots of rain chances this coming week weekend and next week. We can only hope it’s correct 

Just now, FPizz said:

Found warlocks thermometer 

To many clouds for a legit 100 today 

14 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this is good for a 6 hour mean

Wow!!! We can only hope. Thanks 

@bluewave how does the HREF look today? 

.16 today. It’s a start 

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Getting a nice downpour. I don't even think rain was mentioned today. Go figure

It’s the only way we get rain now when it’s not in the forecast. 

Beautiful rain!!!

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The very strong sea breezes this month limited Islip to only the 9th warmest  and LGA 14th warmest July. Even Newark had a sea breeze influence since it couldn’t make the top 5 warmest like areas further west. FWN and SMQ had their 2nd warmest July west of the sea breeze influence. 

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1999	78.6	0
2	2019	78.1	0
3	2013	78.0	0
-	2010	78.0	0
4	2020	77.7	0
5	2011	77.6	0
6	1994	77.3	0
7	2022	77.1	0
8	2023	77.0	0
9	2024	76.9	0
10	2016	76.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2020	82.9	0
2	2010	82.8	0
3	1999	81.9	0
4	2019	81.5	0
5	2013	81.2	0
6	2022	81.1	0
-	2016	81.1	0
7	1955	80.9	0
8	1966	80.8	0
9	2006	80.7	0
10	1994	80.6	0
11	2023	80.4	0
-	2012	80.4	0
-	2011	80.4	0
-	1952	80.4	0
12	2008	80.0	0
-	1993	80.0	0
13	2018	79.8	0
-	1995	79.8	0
14	2024	79.7	0
15	2002	79.5	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2011	82.7	0
2	2022	82.6	0
3	1993	82.5	0
4	2010	82.3	0
5	1994	81.9	0
6	2024	81.3	0
7	2013	80.9	0
8	2020	80.8	0
-	2012	80.8	0
-	1999	80.8	0
9	2023	80.6	0
-	2019	80.6	0
10	1955	80.5	0

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2020	76.5	0
2	2024	75.7	0
3	2019	75.3	0
4	2023	74.8	0
5	2013	74.6	0
6	2011	74.5	0
7	2022	74.4	0
8	2012	74.3	0
-	2006	74.3	0
9	2010	74.1	2
10	2016	73.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1999	78.5	1
2	2024	78.3	0
3	2020	78.0	0
4	2022	77.9	0
5	2019	77.5	0
-	2011	77.5	0
6	2013	77.4	0
7	2012	76.9	0
8	2023	76.8	0
-	2003	76.8	25
9	2016	76.7	0
-	2010	76.7	0

Yeah, would have thought the +2 at nyc would be higher considering the heat we have had here in central jersey 

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The one silver lining is that you can turn on the sprinklers for these nuisance summer dry patterns. Almost a July version of January 2022. But most people don’t have snow making equipment to make up for missing the winter snowstorms.
 

Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2022	33.2	0
2	1987	20.3	0
3	2014	18.8	0
4	2016	16.7	0
5	1961	15.9	0

 

Ha. That was ACY revenge winter after missing out on the epic 20-21 run 

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

CT and south jersey again

Yup storms blowing up in south jersey 

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nice bow echo coming into and thru HFD metro . Hearing Lots of thunder 

Congrats 

Glad I didn’t get invested with today’s false rain threat. I’m sure Cape May will find a way to get more rain today…

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah at least give me sunny and dry if it's not going to rain. All these clouds and humidity is useless

Agreed. We have had lots of cloudy days since the start of last week. 

12 minutes ago, MANDA said:

.01" rainfall last 24 hours.

Let's continue to play kick the can.  Very dry and disappointing "wet stretch" especially considering the high DP pattern that has been in place for the last 3-4 weeks.  Some places haven done well but those places are a small percentage of this sub forum.  It has been dry.

Models are very active inside 5 days then is just disappears as we get closer. Hopefully, that doesn’t happen with Friday into the weekend 

17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Season doesn't really get going til August.   That said, the Nina is not going crazy so that could lead to a reduced # of storms.   

We shall see what happens. Seldom do these cold/snowy or busy hurricanes season forecast ever work out 

0.00 overnight 

are they still expecting a busy tropical hurricane season? It feels like it’s been very slow 

Best chance of rain looks to be Friday Night Now. The wet pattern has been a complete failure here