Allsnow
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Everything posted by Allsnow
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Yes, I was referring to the costal plain. We have spots to the north and west of the metro that probably Avg more then Boston. But those same locations fail in comparison to a place like Orh. The point of the post is their longitude and climo is more conducive for snow in a marginal set up. I believe currently Boston has 17 inches to nyc 2.8?
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The threat isn’t over for them because of there latitude and climo. They can get away with way more imperfections in a set up then we can. This is why they avg way more snow then us.
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The 12z euro is OTS as the pna ridge gets beaten down by the wave train/vortex.
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The main forcing is currently in 8 but we still have convection in 6. The +AAM and Pv orientation has negative effects on the response from p8. We will be in 2/3 to start February. With some strat hits we should get into a better airmass by the 5th.
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Yes. Legit arctic airmass with lots of activity
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Exactly. Not impossible but long list of negatives that argue against it.
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I agree. As I mentioned a week ago, that timeframe holds the most promise.
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It slows the storm down and allows it to bomb out. Unfortunately, it does little for the airmass concerns. You would need a perfect ULL track/close off to allow dynamics to overcome bl issues.
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990 low in a perfect spot on the Ukmet and this is the result. Putrid airmass
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Looks to be all southern stream. I would think temps are warm for the coast.
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Great post. It’s not impossible but with no northern stream you’re relying strictly on dynamics to get it done.
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The icon is making this all southern stream with no northern stream involvement. This helps in really warming temps along the coast despite a decent track.
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Pna a lot sharper on the 12z gfs. But trough is still positively tilted.
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Yes! We just witnessed a ULL trend 200 miles north at this time last week for the Saturday rain event.
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Yep. Need it’s dynamics to overcome the meh airmass/high sliding East. Lots stacked against this for the coast. But it’s not impossible. Great post.
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You want to see improvements out west with the ridge. (Not impossible 5 days out) This will allow the northern stream to dive in further south. The ukmet was a southeast mass hit and the flow is too progressive.
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We had a completely different h5 set up for Boxing Day lol. Just because it trended west does not automatically make it comparable. The issue is the progressive nature of the flow { wave spacing and vortex} all killing the sharpness of the ridge.
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The ukmet is now on pivotal weather with all the maps.
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61.9 inches of it verified at Central Park
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Huh?
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High slides east and lakes low warms the bl. 18z Gfs
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Lots of spread in low placement, yes. But that doesn’t change the laundry list of problems that argue against snow for the metro area.
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These are the 2m anomaly along with the idv that show either a interior snow hit or late phase. If you go off the low location more then a few show a perfect track for the coast. So why doesn’t it show more hits? Imo it’s the airmass with a high sliding off the coast/lakes low/ and late phases with northern stream. We have a long list of things that point against snow for the coast. And even with some of the models that show hits it’s not 100% snow or we are depending on dynamics to overcome temps.
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I was referring to a conversation in the January thread about how this past week temps would not support snow. More specifically with the ULL yesterday.
