Allsnow

Rain 

Rain 

Radar filling in nicely central Pa 

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Radar looks like a whiff to the south for northern posters.   Also warm here-35-forecast low was 31

Should fill in late morning into the afternoon 

Yeah looks warm next week but I can see a crappy end to March/start April with blocking forming 

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The atl is overrated anyway. Yea it can help but I’d rather have a pac driven pattern. 

That’s what we had pretty much all of January 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Yes but we also have a negative epo

Which is too far west for us to benefit from 

5 minutes ago, jconsor said:

It typically takes several weeks to feel the effects of a sudden stratospheric warming event on our weather.  But in the case of vortex stretching/reflection events like the one expected to take place later this week into early next week, the effects are typically felt within a few days.

With the -pna most of the cold will dump west 

21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It can take several weeks to see the effects. A strongly negative NAO/AO late March & April wouldn't surprise me.

Last week of March probably 

Any last gasps of winter will probably wait until the second half of the month with Pv split effects (maybe) and mjo cold phases…..

My gut tells me it’s over outside a late spring hilltop snow 

Looking at the pattern going forward hard not to envision Boston getting over 60 for the season. 

7 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The measurement for Boxing Day at ISP was correct. The best  banding with that one was closer to NE NJ. Much less out across Suffolk.
https://www.weather.gov/okx/storm12262010

SUFFOLK COUNTY...  UPTON                 18.8   100 PM 12/27  NWS OFFICE  NORTH BABYLON         18.5   845 AM 12/27  PUBLIC  PATCHOGUE             17.0   900 AM 12/27  PUBLIC  CENTEREACH            17.0   930 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER  WEST ISLIP            16.0  1215 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER  EAST NORTHPORT        15.5   715 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER  SOUND BEACH           15.5  1200 PM 12/27  NWS EMPLOYEE  NORTHPORT             15.2   138 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER  CENTERPORT            15.0   650 AM 12/27  COOP-OBSERVER  BLUE POINT            15.0  1100 AM 12/27  PUBLIC  EAST SETAUKET         15.0   715 AM 12/27  PUBLIC  MOUNT SINAI           14.2  1255 PM 12/27  NWS EMPLOYEE  ISLIP AIRPORT         14.2   100 PM 12/27  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER  QUOGUE                14.0  1100 AM 12/27  PUBLIC  SHOREHAM              14.0   900 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER  SAYVILLE              14.0  1000 AM 12/27  PUBLIC  HOLBROOK              12.5   900 AM 12/27  PUBLIC  BAITING HOLLOW        12.0   145 PM 12/27  PUBLIC  SMITHTOWN             11.5  1000 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER  PORT JEFFERSON        11.0   800 AM 12/27  PUBLIC  DIX HILLS             10.7   900 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER  FLANDERS              10.0   620 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER

 

 

Yep, the death bands were over Monmouth, Staten Island and eastern Union counties for that one.

Heart Boxing Day blizzard 

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies?

Posted in nyc forum. Flips the Ao and nao after mid month. Haha 

Weeklies flip the Ao/nao after mid month haha 

32 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

God I hope so. Nothing worse than 50 degrees. 

I thought the ensembles did a good job for the first week of March. It was always supposed to be cold and dry. We are to deep into the trough then the epo reloads for second week of March. The first weekend in March imo was always a warm risk with cutter. 

Next weekend will probably be real warm 

47 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

What do you make of the GEFS moving to a more suppressed SE ridge on the LR?

I feel like the timeframe you are showing above is more about a storm tracking further to the west than an actual SE ridge flex.

Exactly. The weekend of 5/6th was always a cutter risk. In the 11-15 day certain features will be muted until they get closer 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The models have really been underestimating the strength of the -PNA  day 11-15. Notice how much stronger the -PNA and SE Ridge is now for the first week of March. So the current day 15 forecasts may too cold. 

New run 

Old run

 

 

Because the models keep trying to bring the mjo out of P3/4 but the convection isn’t moving. We probably see a cooler second half of March with Pv destruction and cooler mjo phases 

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The GEFS likely got colder, blockier due to the MJO wave getting weaker on the plot 

It will continue to get weaker. The io maps continue to die in IO. 

20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah this is not a shut out pattern, albeit maybe a bit dry 

Latest mjo olr maps have everything croaking in IO. 

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

We weather enthusiasts are strange people, but there's nothing wrong with being strange.

I wish I was like my friends an got the weather from the news. 

10 hours ago, forkyfork said:

normal people hate cold weather 

I wish I was Normal and didn’t care about the weather 

@donsutherland1 ensembles showing the Ao flipping…does it hold merit? 

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Just projecting the wave from this.

Yeah, olr maps have this still in 3/4 then dies into IO 

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

To me this is terrible. Just delays the inevitable cold and dreary early spring. If you look the GEFS you will see the beginning of the change at the end (likely following the MJO progression to 7).

I don’t see (olr maps) that strong of a push into 6/7. I honestly think this goes to cod for a while