wdrag
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Everything posted by wdrag
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Will look at this in the evening. No time for next 4 hours cleaning up this the heavy load here. Thanks for the tip. I was just below zero at this time yesterday but NYC 10F. Nice pattern. Hope it can deliver something nice for NYC beyond 1-2 hours. Walt
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I won't post the ensembles...but it seems they are gravitating to an event from ATL to our area 21st-22nd via the 00z/17 cycle. Meanwhile WPC ensembles backed off to 10-20% prob, but that is prior to the 00z/17 ensemble cycle. LOTS of uncertainty. Won't post on this again til this Monday evening, especially with ongoing storminess.
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Past 3 hours of data: Wind gusts: KIAD: Washington-Dulles Intl Arpt, VA, United States [50kt, 26m/s] stations reporting wind gusts 40-49kt KACY: Atlantic City, Atlantic City Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KGED: Georgetown, Sussex County Airport, DE, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KGVL: Gainesville, Gilmer Memorial Airport, GA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KHGR: Hagerstown, MD, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KIAD: Washington-Dulles Intl Arpt, VA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KLVM: Livingston, Mission Field Airport, MT, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KMIV: Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KMUI: Muir/Indiantown, PA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KMWN: Mount Washington, NH, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KNEL: Lakehurst, NJ, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KNHK: Patuxent River, Naval Air Stn, MD, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KORF: Norfolk, Norfolk Intl Arpt, VA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KOXB: Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KPDK: Atlanta, De Kalb-Peachtree Airport, GA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KPHF: Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg Intl Arpt, VA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KSBY: Salisbury, MD, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KTGI: Tangier Island, VA, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KTHV: York, York Airport, PA, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KTNB: Boone, Watauga County Hospital Heliport, NC, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KWAL: Wallops Island, VA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KWRI: Mcguire AFB, NJ, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KWWD: Wildwood, NJ, United States [49kt, 25m/s]
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Seaside Heights a peak easterly wind gust of 54 Knots at 1206AM. Source: Courtesy Weather Flow.
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Wantage NJ (this part) about 8 s of High Point. 4.8" of snow as of 120A with snow-sleet mix. 26F.
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Probably my last report til about mid or 1A. Many reports wind gusts around 50MPH vicinity Norfolk VA.
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NYC CP OBS 3/4S- and .02 since 7P and 31F, WB about 30. Wonder if they'll measure snow for NYC when there ob changes to rain??
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On Wind: 18z EC makes a run at the s Coast of Li but I think OKX has it right on big wind e LI. I could be wrong but am respecting raw guidance. I have nothing in arsenal to improve on that.
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I think pressure fall center near the sfc low will keep winds light ne thru midnight up here (iassalobaric gradient) and am not convinced we scour out aa above 32F prior to 4AM. Also HRDPS, HRRR and ECMWF are pounding snow up here in northern Sussex County northward Mid-3A. Amounts are probably too high in mxd precip but what I think is occuring is a fast occlusion with the upper low casting across our area 12z Monday ONLY briefly allowing 4 hour intrusion of warm air before its cold enough to snow again as the upper low shoots newd overhead. Poconos-catskills, Litchfield Hills may only see 3 hours of mxd precip at most. 18z EC amounts probably have a high mix bias but they are near a foot Poconos newd. I'll take a stab at more like 10" for reality KMPO northeastward.
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You will hang on. I cant see it a move freezing there prior to 2 or 3A.
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HRDPS impressive I80 north. watch it if Thunder snow gets going up here along the NYS-PA border. I like its colder scenario but I'll defer to the fact that I may in error. Am expecting snow thru midnight in Sussex County NJ and possibly back and forth mix rain/snow to S+ between 1A-3A.
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Wantage Nj SB about 630PM. 19.2/10.4 Going to take some nasty advection to get us to 32 by 2AM. Has to have some 1"/hr up here by 11P or mid.
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Around 2" DC, and past hours snow increase 1 in BWI with nearly 2 on the ground there and almost an inch N DE into distant sw subs of PHIL.
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WELLLL done! Very well done. Y{ou have 2 or 3 more opportunities for TORS in FL this month as I see it.
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Report as of about 450PM in VA. Also a few G 40-51KT NC coast to Jacksonville FL since about 4P. I may not repost til 9P. Of interest, warm slot narrow and strong per LLJ but predawn rain/freezing rain ne PA extreme nw NJ near the Appalachian Trail it may turn back to snow showers as early as 12z. See HRRR. I'll stay with the HRRR positive snow amounts. Whatever it says, within an inch. It's a wall of warmth in the LLJ.
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spotty amounts ATL0.2-0.6 " per LSR's. Have no idea what is official there.
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My last on this til tomorrow or Tuesday morning sometime. Please see the attached from our National Center. Something lurks... how it works??? Let's realize it can go bad.
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Just spot checked some reports. 0.2 center of Atlanta, 5-7" general around Asheville--sloppy there. inch or less Raleigh. Washington DC area 0.1 now with 0.8" in La Plata, south southeast of DC ..home of a famous tornado years ago. Speaking of convection: The HRRR is offering thunder snow in northern PA/NYS overnight and thunder somewhere in our I95 corridor midnight-5am. A decent amount of power outages in clusters from northeast GA through the interior Carolinas.
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Even if a miss...it's better than December; WAYYYYY better.
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Sometimes patience pays... We know the mesoscale models can get too amped. I started seeing the HRRR deviate from the fast warmup yesterday and ditto the soundings from the EC...and that's why i was trying to not dismiss. I think sometimes poster pressure can mislead us from reality. I know that affected me on IDA, when clearly the SPC HREF was hung ho about 5-9". Thanks for your posts.
