wdrag

I like that too.... if its shared with the public outside of an AFD. It needs to be in print-graphics. Not happening as well as it could be. I just think we do not help the public prepare as much as could with all the tools available as added here. We're behind. Tomorrow afternoon event also an example. My last on this as I need get back to the basics of what will happen or not up here next Monday.

Agree 100%. NWS general field office approach differs from NHC. It's definitely not my approach to well advertised multi modeling. NWS was pretty happy to see me go, at least at field level where I was generally pushing the envelope to get alerting going. I thought LWX was advanced in leading these winter situations as NHC in tropical. Automation will end this personal - institution conservative approach... it has to be coming as progress is made. These AMWX discussions will become moot I think in a few years, at least inside 7 days... presuming the monies are available for research, platform improvement and processing. Then I can sleep later. Right now, reliably accurate interpreting voices are needed to get planning considerations on the table, sooner than saying nothing. I

Regarding this AFD quote. Go back to 316PM yesterday... similar. Continuity. Conservative approach. 2" in rush hour Phill Monday morning is advisory imo despite criteria, even the conservative view. Doesn't snow much in Philly these days... big return to work day and GFS GGEM ECMWF all subfreezing. Using clusters: gotta make the right cluster call. For now, I wouldn't be downplaying PA-NJ and even NYC on the edge. Folks should be planning Philly south, maybe even up to I80. Right now, no change in my I80 Dr appt but monitoring,

Maybe so, but you haven't been sniffing much the past couple of years... at least there is an option on the table just ahead. Very little thereafter Jan 7-13. I'm counting on 1/4-2" CP until I see a decided ensemble shift south.

We're lucky we have this modeling. I've made no Dr appt decisions for my life next Monday, but I think Philly-BWI need to be planning alternate Monday morning options.

Also did I mention there's a banding signal up here in the GFS... and DCA soundings are now showing sleet January 6 (GFS).

We're on the edge. Try and enjoy our good life. 06Z/2 EPS QPF attached.

Not sure how much folks are checking tomorrow. Monitor modeling s of I78... Tomorrow 2PM-8PM from Philly including southern NJ, MD , southeast PA south of Allentown. Travel impacting briefly moderate to heavy snow showers coating many untreated surfaces and making for a possibly long slippery commute. Amounts will be variable...generally near 1/2" but potential for a band of 1-2". The initial snowfall may melt on pavement as temps cool back to freezing and also mixed with sleet. SPC HREF, HRRR and many models have this. A near miss for us but flurries possible. Also streaks of snow showers may move into NY metro near sunset today?

To illustrate my point about discontinuity... BOM total qpf and snowfall differ next 5 days - see below. As does the WPC qpf and chance of 1/4" frozen qpf. We're on the edge and I too worry about dry air eating up the northern fringe. Click for clarity.

Good Thursday morning everyone, it is Jan 2, 2025. Next Monday Jan 6-early Tuesday the 7th. The northern fringe of snowfall somewhere between I80 and I84. nw NJ-nePA-Orange County NY and NYC-LI...right now a dusting to possibly 2" but we're on the fringe here with uncertainty. I dont think there will be too much northward adjustment in the projected snowfall but 50 miles would make a big difference here, especially I78-I80. Noting WPC has NO qpf here on LI for this storm as does the Blend of Models. This despite a low prob of 1/4" frozen on their maps this morning and ditto snowfall on the Blend of Models. I'll file this in the back of mind regarding what to use in the future. Blend of Models is more conservative on any qpf I80 northward.

Even the 18z virtually dry GFS at LGA is showing banding along I80 and decent dendrite growth in the SGZ Monday. With the EPS so much further north, that is a relief.

NBM: Probably ticked up with the 12z GEPS increasing qpf in NJ. Still waffling... just want to stay in the game on the northern fringe. Then we'll see if we can get a bit of dendrite growth (slight banding near the confluence zone) to counter dry low lvl air on the north wind (evaporation lowest 5k). JMA also looking decent for our area... before it swiftly goes seaward Tuesday. Area in doubt for measurable is probably somewhere along or just north of I84. Agree that this is probably set in stone tomorrow since more and more 5H consensus is developing. I'll check back tomorrow morning at 7 or 8, hopefully we're still in the game. NAEFS says it snows NYC 1/4-1". We'll see by nightfall the 6th.

Can I add on...this same team added this low 10-30% probably of more than 2" of snow. These dont fit well across NNJ. The qpf is explicit is not interpreting northern fringe qpf far enough north, yet offers a greater than 10% chc of frozen 1/4" qpf. I cant see having it both ways... I think the northern fringe .01 should be have been further N and then that would match the D6 prob of >1/4".

Happy New Year Day morning everyone, it is 2025. A wind advisory is in effect for most of the northeast USA later today emphasizing scattered gusts 45-55 MPH, especially tomorrow morning. This afternoon Poconos and nw Hills of CT: Periods of rain-drizzle will change to a little wet snow sometime this afternoon-possibly a slippery inch on untreated surfaces by evening. A few snow showers may linger overnight. Manageable but winter driving caution advised. Tonight remainder I84 corridor: Rain showers may mix with wet snow with possibly a slightest coating above 1000 feet-nw NJ in particular. Jan 2 Entire I84 corridor Thursday morning-midday: Windy with a few gusts around 45 MPH and possibly scattered dustings from snow showers--especially CT. Isolated power outages expected, mainly NYS and southern New England where gusts may reach 50-55 MPH. Jan 3-4 Northeast USA from DC to Baltimore to Philly and NYC Friday afternoon-Saturday morning: Blustery cold with scattered snow showers - dustings to possibly 1". Melting on pavement during the daylight hours but anything after dark can stick. This also begins what will probably be at least 10 day stretch of continuous subfreezing temps in the hills, only barely above freezing in the valleys-cities during the afternoons. Pond ice should be thick enough for safe ice fishing-skating by mid month.

Happy New Year (I very much hope for all!), We're still in the game with the waffling models(windshield wiper) and again all primary global models having trended a bit north. Added the EPS chance for 1" from 06z/1. Also added the 07z/1 NWS BOM by next Wednesday night and the WSSI P for the 6th event... lighter blue hues I think are in for slippery travel. The darker blue very low probs for minor are northern fringe. The NAEFS has come north now and am thinking a minimum of 1/4" NYC CP with a concern that this is in pieces for us I80 north.. some on the 6th, some on the 7th, even possibly early 8 as per the 06z/1 GEFS and 00z/1 GEPS hanging onto qpf. Jan 6-9 I84 itself and northward to I90 seems on the northern fringe of not much snow but still uncertainty on the northern fringe. More in the nw suburbs thread. There is definitely opportunity for hooking some of this northward per the GEFS 5H ensemble members showing a lifting confluence Zone and a number of northern stream members trying to latch onto the VA-MD event. Still in the game... never enjoy the roller coaster but I do think this shows the risk of posting threads beyond 7-8 days.

Very good point... I tend to be in a hurry... how's this for us local folks.

Good Tuesday morning everyone, it is Dec 31. Not much change since yesterday. January will be a seasonably cold or colder than normal month with potential for long lasting snow on the ground once it starts accumulating again in VA/MD/PA/NJ northward. (Added VA/MD since yesterday) Please see your segment and date for attempted planning. Poconos and nw Hills of CT: Periods of rain-drizzle NY Day will probably change to a little wet snow after 4PM--possibly a slippery inch on untreated surfaces by 9PM January 1. Caution advised. Remainder I84 corridor Wednesday evening: Rain showers may mix with wet snow with possibly a slightest coating above 1000 feet-nw NJ in particular. Entire I84 corridor Thursday morning-midday: Windy with a few gusts around 45 MPH and possibly a few flurries. Isolated power outages expected Entire I84 corridor Friday afternoon-Saturday morning: Blustery cold with scattered snow showers - dustings to possibly 1", mainly the hills. This also begins what will probably be at least a 10 day stretch of continuous subfreezingtemps in the hills, only barely above freezing in the valleys during the afternoons. Pond ice should be thick enough for safe ice fishing-skating by mid month. Jan 6-11 Especially I-84 corridor - and possibly the I95 corridor from VA northward to Boston: One or two storms should deposit widespread hazardous amounts of snow and ice with travel delays. The first storm around Jan 6-7 should be mainly limited to the I84 corridor south through PA-NJ-MD-northern VA. A second storm toward Jan 10ish could involve the I95 corridor from NC to MD NYC-BOS. This Jan 6-11 segment is consistent with what we've seen for many days although targeted areas differ dependent on the modeling. Make some plans for travel adjustments, especially PA/NJMD/VA next Monday or Tuesday.

Only 1 EPS cycle so NOT in Stone... but its faster and further N with measurable to NYC by midnight Monday morning. NOT ETCHED in stone... but I think we're at least temporarily in the game for a snow event next Monday.

NWS 07Z/31 Blend of Models (BOM) snowfall attached. 06Z/31 GFS op back in the game a little bit. Variable solutions and so for me patience to wait it out. Am pretty sure the 5H flow will back to between 250-270 degrees and confluence lift north by 00z/9 permitting improved opportunity the 7th-8th greater than that of the potentially dried out first shot that tends to stay south of I80. Uncertainty. Here's the BOM. .

As of 730 PM Monday Dec 30, ensembles have faded a bit the past day or two of model cycles. Snow event (minor) still could occur but suppression mostly south of us or delay til around the 8th. Snow may come in pieces Monday Jan 6-early 9th. Slower seems more likely for our area around the 8th when more longitudinal 5H troughing approaches from the Great Lakes as per the NAEFS which has considerable Canadian model influence. An important feature may be the apparently big short wave diving southeast from western Hud Bay around the 7th and how much backing of the flow will occur ahead of it when it is modeled into the upper Great Lakes by the 8th. Added ensembles (EPS and GEFS) for Monday the 6th--chance of 1" on the Canadian GEPS even less. Also the NWS D7 LOW chance for more than 1/4" of qpf which leads into the 6th. The CPC 3PM/30 probabilistic hazard outlook points out a better chance 7th onward. Hopefully modeling will become more favorable for snowfall. This post is an attempt to grab the first possible snow of January 2025 in NYC but is issued with considerable uncertainty - less than usual confidence and only for the period of Jan 6-12z/9. IF snow does occur (more than a Trace), then this thread can serve as the observations. The tags have ice pellets added, in case Great Lakes 5h troughing around the 8th forces mid level above freezing temps into our area with one possible low center into the Great Lakes. 720A/4 edited the headline to limit event to the 6th and dropped the ice pellet tag. The event has at least held onto the 6h for timing since the initial Dec 30 post, but the max axis in PA-NJ has shifted south about 150 miles since the post started 6 days ago. That is worthy of keeping in mind when posting threads 6 days in advance... limits confidence of occurrence. A positive note the accuracy of the D7 WPC chance of 1/4" frozen in the Ohio Valley!

12z/30 NAEFS still pretty dry... bothersome. Walking the dog, eating din and then maybe start a chancy-likely minor northern fringe thread at 8P for 1/6-7 event which still could end up dead on but for now. I think conservative is best policy. I cant buy into an event 1/8-11 atom, though it still can happen but best for me to shave off the back end event potential. Uncertainty.

Yes I did see it and have seen ensembles through 06z/30. Was going to issue this morning but the NAEFS has me bothered overdoing this. 1/2" snow in CP won't do it for the forum interests. My own opinion is that several inches of snow will fall here in that 1/6-10 time frame but LI might be melting a lot of it. Modeling all over the place. Am thinking of just going with 1/6-7 late today and let the second one ride on its own if it's still there (the old Friday 12/27 CPC probabilistic chance of S+). 06Z/30 GEFS 500 looks a little flatter to me, favoring us on the northern fringe instead of dead on with a storm. This is a D7-9 outlook... just a little too soon for me to guide it to more realistic potential and it can still sharpen and track too close. At least we're in the ball game, and seeming to be so for the entire month. In the back of mind is preseason outlook snowy area this winter north of I90 and we're shaky on the edge of unknown but long overdo for at least a 4" event in CP. If we get a couple events this month, they still might add up to the CP monthly average. Certainly so far for me not a KU pattern. Those are rare. Snow in this pattern after Jan 4 would be long lasting -- I'm an inpatient person sometimes but I've got to hold back. I know my mentors would not be pleased that I'd not learned anything after 2005 (use of ensembles). Back at 630P for hopefully a useful thread.

Good morning. Jan 3-early Jan 4 I95 corridor: Strong short wave, unstable lapse rates and possibly some dustings of snow leak out of the mountains and make to the I95 corridor. Any scattered amounts under 1/2". Jan 6-7 no thread yet due to NAEFS being conservative on probs for more than 1 tenth of an inch in 24 hours, less than 40% and less than 50% over 48 hours. Will monitor day runs. I want to see more emphasis northward in the Canadian modeling. I am discarding the idea of a large 5 day window to track. Whatever happens after Jan 7 can have its own storm thread. For now, I want to see Jan 6-7 look a little better for our area before committing a thread.

Good Monday morning all! My thinking on all that is coming: Entire I84 corridor Thursday: Windy with a few gusts around 45 MPH and possibly a few flurries. Isolated power outages expected, mainly NYS and southern New England. Entire I84 corridor Friday afternoon-Saturday morning: Blustery cold with scattered snow showers - dustings to possibly 1", mainly the hills. This also begins what could be at least a 10 day stretch of continuous subfreezing temps in the hills, only barely above freezing in the valleys during the afternoons. Pond ice should be thick enough for safe ice fishing by mid month. Jan 6-11 Especially I-84 corridor - and possibly the I95 corridor from NC northward to Boston: One or two storms should deposit widespread hazardous amounts of snow and ice with travel delays. The first storm around Jan 6-7 should be mainly limited to the I84 corridor south through PA-NJ. A second storm toward Jan 10ish could involve the I95 corridor from NC to MD NYC-BOS. This Jan 6-11 segment is consistent with what we've seen for a few days although targeted areas differ dependent on the modeling. Have a good day monitoring-anticipating. Walt

My feeling, NYC subforum should average an inch or 2 minimum between 1/6 and 1/10... if not from a storm system, then on a brief period of southerly flow WAA ahead of the next fronts with unstable moist south-southwest flow, since it should be pretty cold around these parts by 1/5. There could be parts of LI less than 1" due to warm adjacent waters. Eventually I will probably start a 1/6-10 thread but am waiting it out 12-48 more hours---trying to be a little more sure about the basis (1/6-10). From what I can tell in the 24 hour ensembles, we wont be nil qpf here... For now from my review (may have missed something) , models disagree on qpf. It's difficult to believe mainly nw surface flow 1/2-10. There has to be a front or two (low pressure systems) in there with those short waves. I continue curious about the 12z/29 GEPS-Canadian attempt to bring a period of light snow to the NYC subforum this Saturday 1/4. Right now, all other modeling is nil so probably no go, but I'd like to give this another day or two to be sure Jan 4 is an absolute nil with dry nw flow - scattered non measured flurries around our coastal plain. For whatever this is worth and view with grains of salt, I took a look at the GEFS 00z/28 SD... I84 corridor once 2" gets down (presuming) by 1/10-11, the snow hold for the rest of January with occasional additional accumulations. I'll check back tomorrow morning.