bluewave

Very extreme windstorm headed for Ireland caused them to send the hurricane hunters over there.

For Caribou, Maine to go +4.9 so far through January 22nd and Charleston, West Virginia -10.7° is a first. This almost reminds me of all the over the top warm ups we have seen in recent years. But now during the Arctic outbreaks the warmest relative to the means are further north into New England.

Both the core of cold and the storm track got suppressed to our south this month. This has become a common occurrence in recent years. In the old days the Northeast would have been much colder when places to our south were this cold. Just goes to show how the geographic footprint of the Arctic outbreaks has been shrinking in recent years. We also saw this in January 2019 and February 2021.

We can simplify things even more and just look at any 10 year period for a place with at least a 60 year long snowfall measurement period. The lowest 10 year running snowfall average on record at JFK was 18.0” from 67-68 to 76-77. The current 7 year running average snowfall at JFK starting in 18-19 is down to 13.6” which is the lowest. I will update it again at the end of this season since we are just beyond the midpoint in a La Nina winter which usually has most of its snow by the end of January. The previous lowest 7 year running average was 15.8” from 85-86 to 91-92. That 7 year average jumped up in the following seasons due to the record snowfall in 93-94 and 95-96. The lowest previous 10 year running average snowfall ended in 76-77 at 18.0”. We had the record 77-78 season the next year. So we are really going to have to pick up the snowfall rates next 3 to 4 years in order to prevent the 2020s from becoming the lowest cardinal decade along with a new low for any 10 year period. JFK is representative of most of our 60 year+ climate sites across the whole area.

They do it that way since the NCDC climate normals periods run through the first full year of each new cardinal decade. So the new 30 year normals period goes into effect for the 2nd winter starting in January of each new cardinal decade. Most people consider that the 2020s started in January 2020. The same way when we think of the 2010s we remember the great 09-10 record snowfall winter as kicking off that new decade. Cardinal decades are more intuitive to most than using the ordinal method. Cardinal Decades Cardinal decades are decades based on the plain cardinal numbers. This groups years together based on what the numbers start with. 1970–1979 were "the '70s." Cardinal decades do not exactly align with ordinal decades. This is because "the 0s" only had nine years due to there not being a year zero. This means any year ending in "10" will be part of the previous ordinal decade and the next cardinal decade. Cardinal decades are still just arbitrary delineations of time, like most of our calendar systems, but they are more practical than ordinal decades at least. Most people intuitively think of decades in the cardinal sense. We typically will refer to "the roaring '20s," "the '90s," or even "the aughts." I have literally never heard someone say "the 193rd decade."

We will need a return to the BM KU snowstorms well before 28-29 for PHL, NYC, and BOS to avoid their lowest snowfall decade. Monthly Total Snowfall for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T T 1.2 4.7 3.6 0.1 0.0 8.9 2024-2025 0.0 T 0.3 4.6 M M M 4.9 2023-2024 0.0 T T 8.0 3.2 0.0 0.0 11.2 2022-2023 T 0.0 T T 0.3 T 0.0 0.3 2021-2022 0.0 0.0 T 12.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 12.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 6.6 3.0 14.3 0.0 0.0 23.9 2019-2020 0.0 T 0.1 0.2 T 0.0 0.0 0.3 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 T 2.7 4.2 7.1 0.1 T 12.8 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 2.8 3.0 M M M 5.8 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 5.2 T 0.0 7.5 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.7 T 5.3 11.3 7.0 0.6 0.2 23.9 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 5.7 6.8 M M M 12.5 2023-2024 0.0 T 0.2 9.0 0.5 T 0.1 9.8 2022-2023 0.0 T 1.0 6.9 3.6 0.9 0.0 12.4 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.4 36.2 15.3 2.1 T 54.0 2020-2021 4.3 T 13.0 5.8 15.3 0.1 0.1 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 T 11.5 3.1 0.5 T 0.7 15.8

Hopefully, NYC can get over 10” this season. The La Niña seasonal average for NYC with under 10” by 01-31 has been 14.3” since 1970. The only La Niña year that they couldn’t do it was 2012. NYC La Niña snowfall by 01-31 under 10” and seasonal total 2025….5.8”……….? 2012….7.2”………7.4” 2008…2.9”….….11.9” 2000…9.5”……..16.3” 1999….6.5”…….12.7” 1986….3.1”…….13.0” 1976….7.9”….…17.3” 1975….2.2”……13.1” 1972….2.8”…..22.9” AVG…………….14.3”

The record cold is very narrowly focused this time around as February 1895 was the 3rd coldest on record for the entire CONUS. Contiguous U.S. Average Temperature February February 1936 25.23°F 1 -8.59°F February 1899 25.50°F 2 -8.32°F February 1895 26.60°F 3 -7.22°F February 1929 26.92°F 4 -6.90°F February 1905 26.94°F 5 -6.88°F

The 1895 event had a much colder pattern leading up to that record snow. This one had the cold come after the snow was on the ground due to the great radiational cooling conditions. So the record cold this time had a much smaller footprint in the CONUS than how extensive the cold was in 1895.

The late January cold timing is similar to some past La Ninas. While the magnitude of this cold was less than the January 20 to 31 La Niña periods in 2011, 2000, 1985, 1984, and 1976, the snowfall has been much lower. Those La Niña years had some impressive late January snowstorms also to go along with the cold.

The common thread has been the lack of BM KU snowstorms. The track earlier in the winter was through the Great Lakes and most spots had a wetter than normal December with 4 to 6 inches of rain. This month the storm track has been suppressed south with a very dry pattern here. The one snow event the other day event had the rain-snow line and low pressure hug the coast at the start in the 40s. So we lost some accumulation to rain at the start and snow melting. The risk going forward is that we only get another short window of opportunity heading into early February. This is when the EPO shifts from negative to positive. Then the storm track may shift back to the Great Lakes again beyond that point as we eventually get the Southeast Ridge to return as is typical for La Nina Februaries.

I believe this is the first time the area around Sussex, NJ dropped below -10 since 1-31-19. 2019-01-31 16 -11 2.5 -24. 2019-01-31 25 -10 7.5 -18.0 https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KFWN&hours=72 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX 1 NW, NJ - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1993-1994 -29 36 2 1960-1961 -25 0 3 1911-1912 -24 3 4 1966-1967 -23 0 5 1980-1981 -22 0 - 1967-1968 -22 2 6 1983-1984 -21 1 7 1947-1948 -20 0 - 1942-1943 -20 0 8 1978-1979 -18 1 - 1915-1916 -18 0 9 1987-1988 -17 5 - 1962-1963 -17 1 - 1933-1934 -17 2 - 1898-1899 -17 1 10 1924-1925 -16 5 11 2014-2015 -15 0 - 1986-1987 -15 2 - 1984-1985 -15 5 - 1969-1970 -15 1 - 1961-1962 -15 5 - 1934-1935 -15 0 12 2008-2009 -14 2 - 1970-1971 -14 1 - 1965-1966 -14 0 - 1941-1942 -14 0 - 1937-1938 -14 1 - 1919-1920 -14 2 13 1950-1951 -13 0 - 1909-1910 -13 1 14 2004-2005 -12 8 - 1989-1990 -12 3 - 1963-1964 -12 0 - 1913-1914 -12 0 - 1904-1905 -12 31 15 2018-2019 -11 0 - 1977-1978 -11 3 - 1976-1977 -11 2 - 1927-1928 -11 4 - 1922-1923 -11 4 - 1895-1896 -11 1 - 1893-1894 -11 32

Still one of my favorite blizzards of all time. Probably the most lightning that I have seen with a snow event. That storm with the 3 consecutive record lows would have been an impressive April event even during the Little Ice Age.

But you knew it wouldn’t take long for the inevitable sun angle posts.

Almost reminds me of October 2011 when NYC had the early month near record 84° warmth followed by the all-time biggest October snowstorm later in the month. 10/9 86 in 1916 84 in 2011 84 in 1990+ Climatological Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - October 2011 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1977 1563 - - 255 17 6.09 2.9 - Average 63.8 50.4 57.1 -0.8 - - - - 0.0 Normal 64.5 51.4 57.9 - 240 22 4.38 0.1 2011-10-01 67 50 58.5 -5.0 6 0 0.39 0.0 0 2011-10-02 64 50 57.0 -6.1 8 0 0.06 0.0 0 2011-10-03 58 48 53.0 -9.7 12 0 0.05 0.0 0 2011-10-04 63 49 56.0 -6.3 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-10-05 71 53 62.0 0.1 3 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-10-06 67 47 57.0 -4.5 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-10-07 66 48 57.0 -4.1 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-10-08 77 54 65.5 4.7 0 1 0.00 0.0 0 2011-10-09 84 60 72.0 11.6 0 7 0.00 0.0 0 2011-10-10 81 61 71.0 11.0 0 6 0.00 0.0 0 2011-10-11 73 62 67.5 7.9 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 2011-10-12 63 58 60.5 1.2 4 0 0.45 0.0 0 2011-10-13 66 58 62.0 3.1 3 0 0.34 0.0 0 2011-10-14 70 57 63.5 5.0 1 0 1.02 0.0 0 2011-10-15 65 54 59.5 1.3 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-10-16 66 54 60.0 2.2 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-10-17 65 57 61.0 3.5 4 0 T 0.0 0 2011-10-18 68 54 61.0 3.9 4 0 0.01 0.0 0 2011-10-19 62 60 61.0 4.2 4 0 1.12 0.0 0 2011-10-20 67 54 60.5 4.1 4 0 0.01 0.0 0 2011-10-21 56 50 53.0 -3.1 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-10-22 60 47 53.5 -2.3 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-10-23 59 50 54.5 -0.9 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-10-24 61 50 55.5 0.4 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-10-25 62 50 56.0 1.2 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-10-26 62 51 56.5 2.1 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-10-27 61 38 49.5 -4.6 15 0 0.63 0.0 0 2011-10-28 49 36 42.5 -11.3 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-10-29 45 33 39.0 -14.5 26 0 2.00 2.9 0 2011-10-30 46 33 39.5 -13.7 25 0 0.01 T 0 2011-10-31 53 37 45.0 -7.8 20 0 0.00 0.0 0

Really rare storm track with just enough cold in place along the Gulf Coast. The pattern leading up to the event wasn’t that cold in the area.There was an 81° record high a few weeks ago. It has been much warmer than the February 1895 was ahead of the previous record snow. Also notice how warm the nearby Gulf has been. 1/5 81 in 2025 79 in 2005 77 in 1955 Climatological Data for Baton Rouge Area, LA (ThreadEx) - January 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1183 758 - - 328 3 1.94 0.0 Average 59.2 37.9 48.5 -3.2 - - - - Normal 61.9 41.4 51.7 - 275 9 4.22 2025-01-01 64 42 53.0 1.0 12 0 0.00 0.0 2025-01-02 65 39 52.0 0.1 13 0 0.00 0.0 2025-01-03 70 48 59.0 7.2 6 0 0.00 0.0 2025-01-04 65 45 55.0 3.2 10 0 T M 2025-01-05 81 52 66.5 14.8 0 2 0.40 0.0 2025-01-06 52 33 42.5 -9.2 22 0 0.00 0.0 2025-01-07 49 30 39.5 -12.1 25 0 0.00 0.0 2025-01-08 48 30 39.0 -12.6 26 0 0.00 0.0 2025-01-09 46 31 38.5 -13.1 26 0 0.04 M 2025-01-10 50 40 45.0 -6.6 20 0 1.15 M 2025-01-11 51 33 42.0 -9.5 23 0 0.00 0.0 2025-01-12 51 31 41.0 -10.5 24 0 0.35 M 2025-01-13 65 42 53.5 1.9 11 0 0.00 0.0 2025-01-14 59 34 46.5 -5.1 18 0 0.00 0.0 2025-01-15 62 48 55.0 3.4 10 0 T 0.0 2025-01-16 67 37 52.0 0.4 13 0 0.00 0.0 2025-01-17 64 35 49.5 -2.2 15 0 T M 2025-01-18 78 53 65.5 13.8 0 1 T 0.0 2025-01-19 53 31 42.0 -9.8 23 0 0.00 0.0 2025-01-20 43 24 33.5 -18.3 31 0 0.00 0.0 2025-01-21 M M M M M M M M 2025-01-22 M M M M M M M M 2025-01-23 M M M M M M M M 2025-01-24 M M M M M M M M 2025-01-25 M M M M M M M M 2025-01-26 M M M M M M M M 2025-01-27 M M M M M M M M 2025-01-28 M M M M M M M M 2025-01-29 M M M M M M M M 2025-01-30 M M M M M M M M 2025-01-31 M M M M M M M M Climatological Data for Baton Rouge Area, LA (ThreadEx) - February 1895 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1285 797 - - 493 0 5.79 12.5 Average 53.5 33.2 43.4 -12.5 - - - - Normal 66.6 45.3 55.9 - 279 25 4.42 1895-02-01 58 41 49.5 -3.7 15 0 0.70 0.0 1895-02-02 48 38 43.0 -10.4 22 0 0.02 0.0 1895-02-03 54 37 45.5 -8.1 19 0 T 0.0 1895-02-04 56 36 46.0 -7.8 19 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-05 56 36 46.0 -7.9 19 0 0.03 0.0 1895-02-06 70 M M M M M T 0.0 1895-02-07 M 17 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1895-02-08 36 11 23.5 -31.0 41 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-09 37 20 28.5 -26.2 36 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-10 40 34 37.0 -17.9 28 0 0.56 0.0 1895-02-11 54 33 43.5 -11.6 21 0 2.15 0.0 1895-02-12 38 30 34.0 -21.4 31 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-13 39 25 32.0 -23.6 33 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-14 34 34 34.0 -21.8 31 0 0.60 6.0 1895-02-15 33 24 28.5 -27.5 36 0 0.65 6.5 1895-02-16 37 26 31.5 -24.7 33 0 T T 1895-02-17 47 20 33.5 -22.9 31 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-18 62 28 45.0 -11.7 20 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-19 55 36 45.5 -11.4 19 0 T 0.0 1895-02-20 60 28 44.0 -13.1 21 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-21 M M M M M M 0.00 0.0 1895-02-22 M M M M M M 0.00 0.0 1895-02-23 M M M M M M 1.08 0.0 1895-02-24 73 47 60.0 2.0 5 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-25 73 49 61.0 2.8 4 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-26 72 50 61.0 2.6 4 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-27 77 49 63.0 4.4 2 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-28 76 48 62.0 3.1 3 0 0.00 0.0

It’s been an interesting progression. The dry pattern in NJ actually started last June while places to the east were still wet from the record rains since July 23. Then everyone got dry from August 21st to November 21st. Spots from LI into CT were very wet with 10”+ rainfall totals through New Year’s Eve. January has been dry across the area as it’s tough to get much precipitation here with the Southeast Ridge suppressed. My guess is that February will be wetter than January was as the Southeast Ridge flexes like it usually does with La Niña Februaries. But if the storm track shifts back too far toward the Great Lakes, then the wettest relative to the means may go to our west. If that’s the case, then we’ll really need a wet spring in order to avoid this drought carrying over into next summer.

I believe this was the coldest at Walpack since January 2018 when the got down to -16°. https://www.njweather.org/data Walpack NJ 2025-01-21 Mesonet 15 -15 Walpack NJ 2018-01-01 Mesonet 19 -16

We actually had one of our coldest Februaries that month around 24° in NYC. So the record cold is much less extensive this time around with the core going to our south and west again. More narrowly focused Arctic outbreaks covering smaller geographic regions has become the new normal. Just like we were much colder during past instances then when Texas got record cold compared to February 2021. Climatological Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - February 1895 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 865 495 - - 1132 0 0.46 9.0 Average 30.9 17.7 24.3 -11.6 - - - - Normal 42.2 29.5 35.9 - 816 0 3.19 1895-02-01 39 21 30.0 -3.7 35 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-02 31 16 23.5 -10.3 41 0 0.16 4.0 1895-02-03 31 12 21.5 -12.4 43 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-04 30 11 20.5 -13.5 44 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-05 11 0 5.5 -28.7 59 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-06 10 -4 3.0 -31.3 62 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-07 13 6 9.5 -24.9 55 0 0.17 S 1895-02-08 8 2 5.0 -29.6 60 0 0.13 5.0A 1895-02-09 19 4 11.5 -23.3 53 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-10 24 18 21.0 -13.9 44 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-11 30 17 23.5 -11.6 41 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-12 34 18 26.0 -9.3 39 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-13 27 21 24.0 -11.4 41 0 T T 1895-02-14 31 21 26.0 -9.6 39 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-15 35 22 28.5 -7.3 36 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-16 33 21 27.0 -9.0 38 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-17 40 26 33.0 -3.2 32 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-18 42 26 34.0 -2.4 31 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-19 43 30 36.5 -0.1 28 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-20 34 25 29.5 -7.3 35 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-21 43 30 36.5 -0.5 28 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-22 33 18 25.5 -11.7 39 0 T T 1895-02-23 29 16 22.5 -14.9 42 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-24 30 15 22.5 -15.1 42 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-25 41 26 33.5 -4.4 31 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-26 34 19 26.5 -11.6 38 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-27 44 20 32.0 -6.3 33 0 0.00 0.0 1895-02-28 46 38 42.0 3.5 23 0 0.00 0.0

https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2024/ However, the warming spike in 2023/2024 appears to have deviated significantly from the previous trend. If we were to assume that global warming was continuing at the same rate as during the 50-year period 1970-2019, then the 2023/2024 excursion would be by far the largest deviation from that trend, with only a roughly 1-in-100 chance of occurring solely due to natural variability. While 1-in-100 chance events do sometimes occur, we consider it more likely that the recent rate of global warming has been larger than expected, exceeding both the previous trend and what would be expected when considering only the observed pattern of greenhouse gas emissions.

Yeah, it’s the same theme this month that we saw with the record cold going to our south and west back in February 2021. Notice the warmer departures in Maine also. Very difficult for cold to be focused over the Northeast these days. The last time the core of a record cold airmass was focused over the Northeast for a month was way back in February 2015.

The Southeast Ridge should be a bigger player in February than January so we should lose the suppression pattern of this month.

The sensible weather here since October hasn’t been matching up with the MJO expectations for the past similar phases and corresponding 500mb patterns.