bluewave
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This winter is yet to occur so I will use last few winters as an example. I was discussing these tools back during the spring of 2023 when the El Niño was developing. My key point was that the record WPAC warm pool would shift the forcing further west than usual and add a La Niña component to the winter forecast with more of a Eastern Ridge than usual for an El Niño. And the seasonal forecasts at the time would be too cool. Both of these ideas worked out with the lack of a Nino Trough near the East Coast that the models were forecasting. We don’t expect anyone to forecast the temperature departures exactly in October and November for the winter. But the value comes from identifying the model biases and identifying where the errors could be. So by later last November I was identifying how the medium and long range models were underestimating the forcing taking shape near the Maritime Continent and this would lead to a warmer forecast than they were showing for December. But it took until the first week of December to hone in on the exact departures going over +10 where the strongest 500 mb ridge set up over Southern Canada. This is why monthly or seasonal forecasts issued in October and November don’t contain monthly or seasonal +10 departures which have been occurring more frequently.
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All-time record warmth for such a high latitude during this time of year. It’s continuation of the AO and NAO volatility which has become the new normal. The record low pressures with the extreme +NAO vortex there over the summer produced their coldest summer in 30 years.
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The wild card would be the details of the hurricane interaction.
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I am hoping the original idea of the retrogression potentially producing a decent storm system and rain which the models lost yesterday turns out to be correct.
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Yeah, we have had a solid -IOD response this fall.
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The recent past is always prologue to the future when weather and climate is involved. So understanding the current conditions helps frame the range of possibilities going forward. Understanding and monitoring model biases also improves the success. I understand GW is a triggering topic for some on these forums since it challenges the past traditionally colder winter patterns from an earlier era. But you have to realize that for everyone who would like to go back to the colder era, there are many outside this forum who like the lower winter heating bills they have enjoyed over the last 9 seasons relative to what they would have been if it was much colder.
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It could be the ENSO models operating in repeater mode right now. Less ENSO cooling due to the much warmer background inhibiting cold pool growth. Then repeating this state closer to initialization into an ENSO warming into next year. Would be a first if this happened from the borderline super last winter. So it probably isn’t the most likely outcome at this point. But would be an interesting occurrence if these long range models are actually onto something.
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Another day with wind gusts exceeding guidance. Westhampton SUNNY 53 35 50 NW22G45
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You are missing the point of the post. The last 15-18 months have been without precedent. Last winter we got super El Niño warmth getting enhanced by the La Niña and -PDO warm tendencies in regard to the Southeast Ridge. This fall has seen lingering super El Niño type warmth exceeding 2015 getting enhanced by the La Niña background boosting the 500mb ridge amplitude. So a merger of all the warmest tendencies from both El Niño and La Niña.
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Something much different is happening with the global temperatures decoupling with past ENSO transitions at least through November. So it’s no surprise that the record warmth isn’t allowing the La Niña to develop normally. But we are still getting a very strong La Niña and -PDO 500 mb pattern. It may be why several models are trying to transition back to El Niño next year so soon. We will have to monitor since it’s way to early for models to reliably forecast the ENSO that far out. No post Nino drop showing up yet like in past
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Yeah, North America will still be very warm with plenty of Pacific air around.
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These charts show how dry it had been with the stations averaged together. It’s well below anything which we have seen in the past. Even 2001 was much wetter than what we have seen so far.
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Western Trough starting to make a comeback after not being much of a factor in September and October. The competing marine heatwaves combining with the MJO 1 in November is much warmer than past events. So a relatively cooler phase in the past for much of the CONUS is getting muted while the warmer phase in October was greatly amplified.
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I don’t think anyone would be surprised if there was a storm and it found a way to miss us which has been happening since around August 20th. Nobody wants to see a fall drought take hold and persist into next spring or summer. The stakes would be much higher this time around than 01-02 or even some 60s years since we have warmed so much since then.
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Greenland blocking retrogressions in the past have usually resulted in storm systems in the East. But this dry pattern has been much more impressive than we have seen in a long time. Hopefully, we can get at least one storm system with over 1.00” of much needed rainfall before the fall ends.
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There have been several winter shifts along the way since the late 1970s. The last time the CONUS had a top 10 coldest winter was back in the late 1970s with 1978-1979 being the coldest winter on record. 1976-1977 was the last time my area around NYC Metro had a top 10 coldest winter. The period from 1980 to 1994 saw some very impressive Arctic outbreaks where all-time cold was recorded around Chicago. 1994 marks the last time that Canada had a top 10 coldest winter. Places like the Great Lakes were able to register a top 10 coldest regional cold as recently as 2013-2014. But this was more localized than the late 1970s which had much more expansive cold. What has occurred since the 2015-2016 super El Niño is without precedent with 9 consecutive warm to record warm winter around the Northeast. But areas closer to the center of the continent were able to get some impressive but brief Arctic outbreaks in January 2019 and the 2020-2021 winter. But even the warmth in these regions has overshadowed these brief cold episodes. There are two factors at play. One the planet is warming to the rate that Arctic outbreaks are becoming shorter and less intense. The other is that marine heatwaves in key forcing regions tend to favor these giant standing waves which allow warm 500 mb ridge to stall over areas like we saw numerous times in recent years.
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Just tied for the 5th latest freeze just east of the ASOS at HVN at 30.6° and the ASOS at 31.0°. Frost/Freeze Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1949 04-11 (1949) 32 11-16 (1949) 31 218 2014 04-21 (2014) 30 11-15 (2014) 25 207 2022 04-05 (2022) 31 11-14 (2022) 29 222 1963 04-26 (1963) 31 11-13 (1963) 31 200 1956 05-09 (1956) 32 11-10 (2024) 31 184
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The warmer shift began after the 09-10 El Niño during the summers around NYC Metro. We have had 12 out of 15 warmer to record warm summers since then. The warmer winter pattern began in December 2015 with 9 out of 9 warmer to record warmer winters in a row. The 3 cooler summers in 2014,2017, and 2023 were only slightly so. The interesting part of both shifts to warmer were that they were immediately preceded by an impressive cold pattern. June and July 2009 were 2nd coolest such period around NYC Metro. The very next summer was the warmest on record. Then we had the 2nd coldest February on record in 2015 around -11.4. Then the very next winter month in December 2015 came in at an historic +13.3. That December was around 50° degrees which was the equivalent of a very warm November around our area. It was our greatest monthly warm temperature departure.
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They are extending the OP Euro to 360 hrs on Tuesday so the 384 hr GFS snowstorms will get some friendly competition. In IFS Cycle 49r1, HRES and the ENS control forecast become scientifically and computationally identical and both are run for 15-days at 00 UTC and 12 UTC, and 6 days at 06 UTC and 18 UTC. The superfluous ENS control forecast will be stopped in a future IFS upgrade, and the data stream currently known as HRES will become known as the “control” forecast.
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Maybe we can get a storm once the retrogression finishes just after the 20th.
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That’s the benefit of living at such a high elevation even after their warmest September and October by a wide margin. Time Series Summary for Denver Area, CO (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-10-31 64.5 0 2 2015-10-31 62.8 0 3 1933-10-31 62.5 0 4 1947-10-31 62.2 0 5 2016-10-31 61.8 0 - 1963-10-31 61.8 0 Time Series Summary for Denver Area, CO (ThreadEx) - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1946 42.6 0 2 1991 29.6 0 3 1983 29.3 0 4 1929 23.1 0 - 1928 23.1 0 5 1908 22.9 0 6 1979 22.3 0 7 1956 21.3 0 8 1992 20.1 0 9 1972 19.4 0 10 2024 18.2 22
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We don’t even need a very strong Alaskan +EPO vortex anymore since the west based Greenland Block this fall linking up with the Southeast Ridge has produced record warmth.
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We are lucky this is happening during the fall and not the summer. Had this pattern started back in May or June places like Newark could have seen the first year with 10 days reaching 100°.They tried to make a run on 10 days back in 2022 but the rains came in time to interrupt the dry pattern.
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At least we get some showers Sunday night before most of the rainfall with the system later next week probably misses to our east.
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October finished at the 2nd warmest for the CONUS. The September and October period was warmest by a wide margin. Very impressive how much warmer this fall has been so far than the 2015 super El Niño.
