bluewave

Another big EPAC WWB like we have been seeing in recent years boosted Nino 1+2 back above +1 again.

We are currently on pace for a new 10 year snowfall low average across the area if we don’t get a big increase over the next 3 seasons. This current 7 year lower running snowfall average began in 18-19. The past slumps were followed by 50” seasons boosting the totals back up in the following years. But reaching such heavy totals in recent years has been a significant challenge. Lowest 10 year averages and ending year and current 7 year average since 18-19 EWR…..1977……19.4”…….2025….17.3” NYC…..1993……18.8”…….2025….14.9” LGA…..1977…….17.7”……..2025….16.0” JFK…..1993….…18.0”…….2025…..14.5” ISP……1995…….19.3”……..2025…..16.8”

This is the first time that the combined 3 year snowfall average at EWR, NYC, JFK, LGA, and ISP dipped under 10”. The current 3 year mean is at 8.9”. The old record low from 96-97 to 98-99 was 10.5”.

This very strong westerly flow had been a persistent feature this winter.

One aspect of a fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet is shortwaves too close together like we are seeing this week leading to a suppressed outcome. So when you have lows coming into the West at the same time as one is trying to amplify along the East Coast it acts as a kicker low or trough. The next pattern is a hugger track. These were the string of small snows around NYC this month. Too much amplitude on the Southeast Ridge so we get the lows riding too far north leading to mixed precipitation events. And then this weekend was a record setting cutter for an -AO below -5 and a Greenland Block of +500 meters. In the old days we wouldn’t have had a Southeast Ridge link up with such an intense Greenland Block. My guess is that warm water feedback from the record Atlantic SSTs are combining with the faster Pacific to create this pattern. I posted composites a while back showing how in the 1950s to early 1970s when we had troughs in the West and a -AO there would often be a trough in the East instead of a Southeast Ridge. So in this case a little too much spacing between lows leading to one amplifying too much. So we have been seeing multiple ways not to get the benchmark track which has been a prerequisite since the 1990s for seasons in the 20-30” range and above. This has been a frequent occurrence since the 18-19 winter. It’s possible that this is related to competing marine heatwaves in the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. Could even be the IO marine heatwaves also. But we would probably need a research effort in order to confirm why the Pacific Jet has been following this type of pattern.

Snowfall across the coastal zones has pretty much reverted to the 2020s mean this season. Our new 6 year average for the 2020s has been generally between 10-20 inches. There have been a few exceptions like 20-21 areawide and locally in eastern sections during 22. This is the new average snowfall range with the very fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. It leads to cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks beginning in 18-19. Since we have need benchmark tracks to go over 20” in the local means since the 1990s. It will be interesting to see if we can change up this storm track pattern through 28-29 in order to avoid a permanent shift under 20” if this continues into the 2030s and beyond. The current 7 station average for the 2020s is 16.3”. Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T 0.0 3.3 4.6 8.4 0.3 T 16.5 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 3.5 3.7 6.2 M M 13.4 2023-2024 0.0 T T 3.1 9.1 T 0.0 12.2 2022-2023 0.0 T 0.1 T 2.0 0.6 0.0 2.7 2021-2022 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.6 2.3 0.8 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 T 0.0 11.9 3.2 30.6 T 0.0 45.7 2019-2020 0.0 T 4.2 2.7 T T T 6.9 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 T 2.7 4.2 7.0 0.1 T 13.9 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 2.8 3.0 6.7 M M 12.5 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 5.2 T 0.0 7.5 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 T 2.7 5.6 7.1 0.3 T 15.7 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 3.2 4.5 7.3 M M 15.0 2023-2024 0.0 T T 3.9 6.6 T T 10.5 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 0.4 T 2.9 0.1 0.0 3.4 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.6 20.4 2.7 1.6 0.0 25.3 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.2 1.9 23.2 T T 35.3 2019-2020 0.0 T 2.0 2.6 T T T 4.6 Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 T 2.1 4.3 8.0 0.2 T 14.5 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 3.0 2.5 6.4 M M 11.9 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.4 10.4 T 0.0 12.8 2022-2023 0.0 T T T 1.7 0.4 0.0 2.1 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 17.8 3.2 0.5 0.0 21.7 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 7.2 0.9 26.4 T T 34.5 2019-2020 0.0 T 1.9 1.9 T T T 3.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T 0.0 2.4 6.9 7.6 0.6 T 17.5 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.7 6.7 M M 11.5 2023-2024 0.0 T T 3.1 7.8 0.0 0.0 10.9 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 0.4 T 3.0 1.6 0.0 5.0 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.3 31.8 3.3 1.6 0.0 37.0 2020-2021 T 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 33.5 2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T 6.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T T 3.0 6.4 10.4 0.4 T 20.0 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 1.3 4.1 12.6 M M 18.0 2023-2024 0.0 T T 5.5 10.1 0.0 T 15.6 2022-2023 0.0 T 0.8 T 4.1 T 0.0 4.9 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 20.8 4.7 2.0 0.0 27.7 2020-2021 T T 10.0 3.1 30.7 0.0 0.0 43.8 2019-2020 0.0 T 5.5 4.6 T T T 10.1 Monthly Total Snowfall for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 T 2.1 4.2 9.2 0.4 T 15.9 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 4.0 5.0 4.1 M M 13.1 2023-2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 16.0 T 0.0 22.3 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.0 1.3 0.0 3.3 2021-2022 0.0 T T 12.0 2.6 0.9 0.0 15.5 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.2 30.6 0.0 0.0 37.3 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.8 T 0.0 T 3.8

Gusts to 61 mph at MPO.

Small hail and flooding possible with that storm moving across NNJ.

NW of Philly already gusting to 62 mph.

Yeah, the HRRR has gusts around 70mph in the highest elevations.

Tree damage likely in areas which got the heaviest icing once the winds pick up as this is the first high wind warming in years right after an ice storm.

The Tremont Micronet just made it to 40°. But these warm fronts pushing up against snow pack can struggle to cross the Sound. It’s always easier for warm front to come in aloft and change the snow to an icy mix and then just plain rain.

15° jump in one hour when the warm front came through Montauk. Feb 16, 2:54 pm 57 53 87 SSW 24G43 Feb 16, 1:54 pm 42 39 89 37 NE 8

52° at JFK with southerly flow gusting to 36 mph. Feb 16, 2:05 pm 52 48 87 S 29G36

Warm front has made it through JFK with 50° and strong SSW flow. Feb 16, 1:40 pm 50 48 94 SSW 18G26

The wind just shifted to SE at JFK and they are up to 47°.

Looks like the December under 4” La Niña snowfall pattern is working out again at spots like Newark. The only year in the last 30 years that missed was 16-17. It’s been a pretty reliable early indicator back to the 1990s on whether it would be a below or above average snowfall season. La Niña snowfall and storm tracks usually get established early in the season. But this isn’t the case for El Niños. Newark December La Niña snowfall and seasonal totals 24-25….3.5”…..13.4” so far 22-23….0.1”…….2.7” 21-22…..0.1”……17.9” 20-21….11.9”…..45.7” 17-18…..7.7”…….39.7” 16-17…..3.4”……30.0” 11-12…..0.0……..8.8” 10-11…..24.5”….68.2” 08-09….8.3”…..27.0” 07-08…..3.9”…..14.6” 05-06…..11.0”…..37.9” 00-01……14.9”….39.3” 99-00……T………18.4” 98-99…..1.2”…….12.8” 95-96…12.8”……78.7”

The snow piles from the Long Beach dept of sanitation road crews were like mountains that winter in the empty block next to the boardwalk that used to be the old amusement park.

I had around .25 of ice with the freezing rain on 2-2-11 back in Long Beach. Before that picked up around .3 to .4 of ZR on 2-14-07. That was one of the more unusual events I ever saw in Long Beach. The freezing rain was mostly along and south of Sunrise Highway. So the first ice storm mostly limited to the immediate South Shore. Then 1994 was in a class by itself with over .75 to 1.00 of ice. The Jan 1978 event was just as bad especially from around Merrick Road and north and not too bad in Long Beach.

We have really been lucky closer to the coast that we haven’t had a significant ice storm since 2011 and 2007. Our last major ice storms were in 1994 and 1978. One of the biggest since then was a dangerous glaze one early morning on Long Island with some freezing drizzle that wasn’t really forecast by the models. I don’t remember the exact date but I think it was a Sunday Morning.

Yeah, I have noticed that these warm fronts can slow their northward progress to the north of NYC when there is snowcover on the ground. It’s usually models like the HRRR that do best once we get within the shorter term range. Maybe someday they will boost the Euro to 4km or lower and make it more competitive.

Anything within a few degrees is pretty close in my book since I don’t expect perfection from these models. The general rule of thumb is that warm fronts usually have no problem making it through CNJ. Then they usually hang up somewhere between I-78 and I-80. Long Island usually makes it above 50° but sometimes Central Park can hover in the mid 40s. Usually have to get far enough north closer to your area in order to struggle to get above freezing.

Par for the course with these set ups as the northern boundary fights to hang on. Looks like mid 40s for the Bronx and 50s on Long Island with the 60s in Central NJ. JFK is already up to 39°.

The Bronx mesonet is 33° and the HRRR forecast was 34°. So very close. Need to use the higher resolution guidance in situations like this.

The HRRR that I posted is spot on for the current temps. So the forecast looks good. It usually dose best in these set ups.