bluewave

This is one of the most extreme dipole reversals on record for late August. The Arctic went from record high pressures to record low pressures in just a few weeks. It’s the first time in over a decade for a small gain in extent from 8-22 to 8-27. Shows what can happen with a rapid shift to colder and stormier conditions. 8-22 to 8-27 sea ice extent change 2019...+55k 2018...-134k 2017...-213k 2016....-507k 2015....-451k 2014....-165k 2013....-152k 2012....-431k 2011....-177k 2010....-262k 2009....-254k 2008....-439k 2007.....-71k

The extent loss rate began to stall a few days before the storm around the 20th. The record breaking high pressure regime that had been in place since May reversed. So the ice pack became less compact and spread out with colder temperatures.

Larger 94k daily drop on 8-22 for NSIDC extent. This moves 2019 into 8th place at 4.628 million sq km. ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx 3.387....2012-9-17 4.155....2007-9-18 4.165....2016-9-10 4.344....2011-9-11 4.433....2015-9-9 4.586....2018-9-23 4.615....2010-9-21 4.628....2019 4.656....2018-9-23 4.665....2017-9-13 

2019 is at the 10th lowest NSIDC extent as of 8-20. 3.387....2012-9-17 4.155....2007-9-18 4.165....2016-9-10 4.344....2011-9-11 4.433....2015-9-9 4.586....2018-9-23 4.615....2010-9-21 4.656....2018-9-23 4.665....2017-9-13 4.734....2019

Loss rate has slowed enough last few days for NSIDC extent to fall behind 2012 by 242k as of 8-15. .............2012......2019  8-13.....4.889......4.966.....77k behind 8-14.....4.724......4.970.....246k behind  8-15....4.679......4.921.....242k behind  8-16....4.619 8-17.....4.545 8-18.....4.520 8-19.....4.405  8-20.....4.313 NSIDC updated their projection for the September minimum. They are now calling for a 2nd place finish behind 2012. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2019/08/dead-heat/ The ASINA team conducted a revised analysis of the likely course of the 2019 Arctic summer sea ice minimum, using rates of loss from several recent years. While sea ice extent is now above extent for the same date in 2012, overall our projection for the minimum is lower than estimated in our previous post. Using the average decline rate of the past 12 years, from 2007 to 2018, the 2019 minimum is estimated to be 3.75 million square kilometers (1.45 million square miles). If the 2012 decline pattern is applied from August 14 forward, sea ice reaches 3.44 million square kilometers (1.33 million square miles). This is still above the 2012 summer minimum extent of 3.39 million square kilometers (1.31 million square miles). However, nearly all of the recent rates of sea ice loss lead to 2019 being second lowest in ice extent, surpassing 2007 and 2016.

NSIDC daily extent holding steady on the 14th allowed 2019 to fall behind 2012 by 246k. But the area was able to move closer to 2012 than it has been over the last week. ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx .............2012......2019 8-13.....4.889......4.966.....77k behind 8-14.....4.724......4.970.....246k behind  8-15.....4.679  8-16.....4.619 8-17.....4.545 8-18.....4.520 8-19.....4.405  8-20.....4.313 NSIDC area https://cryospherecomputing.tk/

97k daily decline for NSIDC extent. This places 2019 only 77k behind 2012 as of 8-13. Models indicate a continuation of the record breaking high pressure regime over the Arctic since May. Surface pressures are forecast to exceed 1040 mb around the Chukchi Sea region next 3-4 days. This would be at record levels for this time of year. ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx .............2012......2019 8-13.....4.889......4.966.....77k behind 8-14.....4.724 8-15.....4.679 8-16.....4.619 8-17.....4.545 8-18.....4.520 8-19.....4.405 8-20.....4.313

Small daily rise in NSIDC extent of 19k. This puts 2019 behind 2012 by -92k as of the 11th. NSIDC extent    Date....2012......2019....2019 difference  8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead  8-6......5.632......5.510......+122k lead  8-7......5.467......5.388......+79k lead 8-8......5.256.....5.390......-134k behind 8-9......5.088......5.259......-171k behind  8-10....5.118......5.093......+25k ahead  8-11....5.021......5.113.......-92k behind 8-12.....4.938 8-13.....4.889 8-14.....4.724 8-15.....4.679 8-16.....4.619 8-17.....4.545 8-18.....4.520 8-19.....4.405 8-20.....4.313

This site has it. https://cryospherecomputing.tk/

Very large daily NSIDC decline of 166k puts 2019 back in a narrow lead over 2012 by +25k. ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx NSIDC extent    Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead  8-6......5.632......5.510......+122k lead 8-7......5.467......5.388......+79k lead 8-8......5.256.....5.390......-134k behind 8-9......5.088......5.259......-171k behind  8-10....5.118......5.093......+25k ahead 8-11....5.021

Large 131k daily drop on NSIDC extent. So 2019 is only 171k behind 2012. We are past the record breaking 2012 fall during the Great Arctic Cyclone. 2019 needs a 119k daily decline rate next two days to pull back even with 2012 by the 11th. The NSIDC charts use a five-day trailing average. The daily extent figures are found in the spreadsheet section under the chart. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/ NSIDC extent    Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead 8-6......5.632......5.510......+122k lead 8-7......5.467......5.388......+79k lead 8-8......5.256.....5.390......-134k behind 8-9......5.088......5.259......-171k behind 8-10....5.118 8-11....5.021

NSIDC extent held steady on August 8th. 2019 has fallen behind 2012 by 134 k during the period of the Great Arctic Cyclone. 2019 needs an average daily loss rate of 123k next few days to hold even with 2012 by the 11th. NSIDC extent    Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead 8-6......5.632......5.510......+122k lead 8-7......5.467......5.388......+79k lead  8-8......5.256.....5.390......-134k behind 8-9......5.088 8-10....5.118  8-11....5.021

Updated for a 3.21 max in Livingston TWP, NJ. 2 NNE LIVINGSTON TWP 3.21 700 AM 8/08 COCORAHS

Large 122k daily drop in NSIDC extent . 2019 needs an average daily decline rate of 92k next 4 days to remain even with 2012 by the 11th. NSIDC extent    Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead 8-6......5.632......5.510......+122k lead 8-7......5.467......5.388......+79k lead  8-8......5.256 8-9......5.088 8-10....5.118  8-11....5.021

2019 needs an average NSIDC daily decline rate of 98k next 5 days to be even with 2012 on the 11th. NSIDC extent   Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead 8-6......5.632......5.511......+121k lead 8-7......5.467 8-8......5.256 8-9......5.088 8-10....5.118 8-11....5.021

Large 166k daily drop in NSIDC extent. We are entering the big decline week when 2012 pulled ahead of all other years. This was during the period of the Great Arctic Cyclone. NSIDC extent  Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead 8-6......5.632 8-7......5.467 8-8......5.256 8-9......5.088 8-10....5.118 8-11....5.021 No let up in sight for the continuing record dipole pattern.

We are entering the big decline week when 2012 pulled ahead of all other years. This was during the period of the Great Arctic Cyclone. NSIDC extent Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 8-4......5.990.... 5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768 8-6......5.632 8-7......5.467 8-8......5.256 8-9......5.088 8-10....5.118 8-11....5.021

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis monthly means. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/timeseries/

May through July set new Arctic records for warmth, surface pressure, and 500 mb heights.

Large -299k drop in NSIDC extent over the last 2 days. This puts 2019 +259 k ahead of 2012 as of August 2nd. 2019 needs to maintain an average daily decline rate of 97k over the next 9 days to hold even with 2012 by the 11th. NSIDC extent 8-2-19.....5.893 8-2-12.....6.152 8-11-12....5.021

Zack Labe is reporting that July set the new lowest NSIDC average extent for the month. The only months not to set a new record low since 2016 so far have been ASO. 9 new monthly records in 3 years shows how much the Arctic has warmed. https://mobile.twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1156938182832693249 New Record* -- 2019 averaged the lowest #Arctic sea extent in the satellite-era for the month of July. It was 1,880,000 km² below the 1981-2010 average. Data from @NSIDC https://mobile.twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1157122835409596416 Updated record low #Arctic sea ice extent months - @NSIDC data (satellite-era from 1978/1979) -------------- 2018 : January 2018 : February 2017 : March 2019 : April 2016 : May 2016 : June 2019 : July 2012 : August 2012 : September 2012 : October 2016 : November 2016 : December

At least for the time being, the harshest melting conditions are focused over Greenland. NSIDC had a very small drop yesterday of 44k down to 6.192. It maintains a narrow lead over 2012 of 176k which was at 6.368. August 1-11, 2012 experienced the record breaking decline down to 5.021. This year would require an average daily decline rate of 106k to keep pace by August 11th.

July was another top 10 warmest around the area. 7...2019....EWR...7.....NYC..10...LGA...3....JFK....4....BDR...3.....ISP...2

NSIDC extent is only 163k above 2012 as of 7-30. 7-30-19...6.237 7-30-12....6400 2019 needs to increase the decline rate next 10 days in order not to fall below 2012 on August 9th. The average daily decline rate last 10 days was 81k. This year would need an average 115k daily to keep up with 2012 over the next 10 days. 8-9-12.....5.088 9-16-12...3.340....lowest daily September minimum on record The area is tracking a bit behind 2012 as of 7-30.

7-27-19 has a narrow lead of 214k over 7-27-12 for NSIDC extent. 2019 needs to maintain an average daily drop rate of 106k next 13 days in order not to fall behind 2012. This first 9 days of August was when 2012 experienced the record breaking decline. There was a 3 day interval with over 500k of losses during the deep Arctic storm. So it may be tough to catch up with 2012 later in the season if 2019 falls much behind next few weeks. We’ll see how it goes. 7-27-19...6.463 7-27-12...6.677 8-9-12.....5.088 9-16-12...3.340....lowest daily September minimum on record