bluewave

Newark could see only its 6th March 50° or greater March temperature drop within 4 days. 3-11-21....75°.....3-15-21.....? 3-1-17......73°......3-5-17......14°........-59° 3-14-07....79°......3-16-07....25°........-54° 3-8-87......77°......3-10-87....16°........-61° 3-19-86....72°......3-21-86....16°........-56° 3-2-72......78°......3-4-72.......20°.......-58°

9th earliest first 75° day of the year at Newark. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 536 PM EST THU MAR 11 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 75 WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 71 SET IN 1977. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference 1949 02-15 (1949) 76 11-11 (1949) 75 268 2018 02-21 (2018) 80 10-11 (2018) 81 231 1972 03-01 (1972) 75 09-27 (1972) 85 209 1964 03-05 (1964) 75 10-28 (1964) 76 236 1976 03-05 (1976) 75 10-09 (1976) 76 217 1946 03-07 (1946) 75 10-31 (1946) 82 237 1987 03-08 (1987) 77 11-04 (1987) 78 240 2016 03-09 (2016) 82 10-30 (2016) 78 234 2006 03-10 (2006) 76 10-18 (2006) 75 221 2020 03-11(2020) 75

Newark could be around 50° colder behind the Arctic front Monday morning.

The 70° at Newark is close to the record. Newark/Liberty MOSUNNY 70 36 28 SW12 Data for March 11 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 1977-03-11 71 45 0.00 0.0 0 1967-03-11 70 44 0.01 0.0 0 2016-03-11 69 48 0.03 0.0 0 1990-03-11 68 44 0.04 0.0 0 2014-03-11 67 38 0.00 0.0 0 1955-03-11 67 48 T 0.0 0

This paper back in 2009 was right on the money. We can expand this to the extreme AO volatility. The AO has been swinging from one extreme to another. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090113101200.htm Swings In North Atlantic Oscillation Variability Linked To Climate Warming January 14, 2009 The research team found the variability of the NAO decade-to-decade (multi-decadal scale) has been larger, swinging more wildly, during the late twentieth century than in the early 1800s, suggesting that variability is linked to the mean temperature of the Northern Hemisphere. This confirms variability previously reported in past terrestrial reconstructions. “When the Industrial Revolution begins and atmospheric temperature becomes warmer, the NAO takes on a much stronger pattern in longer-term behavior,” said Goodkin. “That was suspected before in the instrumental records, but this is the first time it has been documented in records from both the ocean and the atmosphere.” As temperatures get warmer, there’s potential for more violent swings of the NAO — the phases becoming even more positive and even more negative,” Hughen added. “If the NAO locks more into these patterns, intense storms will become more intense and droughts will become more severe.”

Yeah, 70s away from the ocean look like good bet today. The dewpoints are only in the 20s and 30s to our south. So quickly rising temperatures in such a dry airmass. STAFFORD* PTCLDY 53 24 32 CALM 30.37R FREDERICKSBRG* PTCLDY 52 35 51 S3 30.33R

The new GFS v16 shows improvement over the old version. The cold bias is pretty much gone. The links below have all the important stats.

Pretty impressive how the 50/50 low remains stuck in place even with the record AO swings. March 1-8, 2021 EPS forecast

Big temperature swing coming up. Temperatures will rise to near 70° on Thursday. Then another Arctic front will move through later in the weekend and drop the temperatures back into the 20s.

The warmth around the solstice since 2011 has been unprecedented. Data for December 18 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 1937-12-18 64 39 0.10 0.0 0 2006-12-18 61 44 0.00 0.0 0 1984-12-18 61 41 0.00 0.0 0 2016-12-18 59 31 0.07 0.0 1 1966-12-18 59 41 0.00 0.0 0 2001-12-18 58 43 0.31 0.0 0 2015-12-18 56 37 T 0.0 0 2012-12-18 56 44 0.52 0.0 0 Data for December 19 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 1931-12-19 60 36 0.00 0.0 M 1967-12-19 58 40 0.00 0.0 0 2017-12-19 57 43 0.00 0.0 0 Data for December 21 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 2013-12-21 64 42 T 0.0 0 2011-12-21 62 41 0.13 0.0 0 2018-12-21 61 50 1.37 0.0 0 1957-12-21 61 44 0.07 0.0 0 1990-12-21 59 46 0.25 0.0 0 2012-12-21 57 36 0.91 0.0 0 1973-12-21 57 26 2.00 T T Data for December 22 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 2013-12-22 71 57 0.03 0.0 0 1998-12-22 65 23 0.07 0.0 0 1949-12-22 64 46 T 0.0 0 1967-12-22 63 39 0.28 0.0 0 1990-12-22 62 57 0.01 0.0 0 2015-12-22 61 52 0.06 0.0 0 2011-12-22 61 47 0.08 0.0 0 Data for December 23 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 1990-12-23 67 58 0.31 0.0 0 2015-12-23 66 50 1.44 0.0 0 1949-12-23 63 33 0.16 T 0 1931-12-23 63 49 T 0.0 M 2013-12-23 62 42 0.53 0.0 0 2007-12-23 62 39 0.69 0.0 0 2006-12-23 60 46 0.64 0.0 0 2004-12-23 59 39 0.62 0.0 0 2019-12-23 57 31 0.00 0.0 0 Data for December 24 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 2015-12-24 71 59 0.03 0.0 0 1990-12-24 64 30 0.45 0.0 0 1996-12-24 63 38 0.37 0.0 0 2020-12-24 60 37 0.43 0.0 0 1941-12-24 60 47 0.46 0.0 0 Data for December 25 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 1964-12-25 69 44 0.01 0.0 0 1982-12-25 68 40 0.02 0.0 0 2014-12-25 64 41 0.10 0.0 0 2015-12-25 63 54 0.03 0.0 0 2020-12-25 62 28 0.66 0.0 0

Day 10 cutters have been turning into day 7 Miller Bs. New run Old run

The 50/50 lows have been beating model expectations over that record warm pool. Started out with the near record 935 mb 50/50 low ahead of the Dec 17-18 storm. Then we saw the -5SD TPV dive into Eastern New England last week.

Yeah, the big 50/50 low and east based block snuck up on the models. The individual storm details will probably have to wait a while. But the volatility in the North Atlantic sector over the last month has been very impressive. New run Old run

The big AO and NAO volatility continues on the 12z guidance. Models have the +5 AO rise and warm up this week. But now they introduce a -4.5 SD 50/50 low over the weekend. This wave break may result in a return to a more east based -NAO in mid to late March. So I think that’s why the models are struggling so much with the storm details past 120 hrs. The main takeaway may be this week will be the warmest for a while as lows may cutoff behind the intense 50/50 vortex.

So far JFK is the big warm and dry downslope flow winner at 65°. 000 SXUS51 KOKX 091757 OSOOKX New York City Metropolitan Area Weather Roundup National Weather Service New York NY 100 PM EST TUE MAR 09 2021 CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Central Park SUNNY 63 27 25 W9G17 30.29F LaGuardia Arpt MOSUNNY 60 28 29 NW13 30.26F Kennedy Intl MOSUNNY 65 29 25 W15G24 30.27F Newark Liberty MOSUNNY 64 27 24 NW15 30.27F Teterboro Arpt SUNNY 61 32 33 NW16G22 30.26F

This officially ends the 8th longest under 55° day streak at Newark. It was also the 25th longest under 60° day streak. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 55 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2021-03-08 1 111 1963-03-23 2 87 1941-03-22 3 84 2003-03-14 4 83 1956-02-24 5 78 1969-03-16 6 77 1977-02-22 7 76 1968-03-07 - 76 1948-02-17 8 73 2021-03-08 9 69 1971-02-11 10 65 2015-03-10

My only regret over this period is that I missed out on the Nemo 6” per hour 50 DBZ band. But maybe we can see something like that in the 2020s closer to our area. Be interesting to see if we can get a 40” event like BGM did in December.

Remarkable snowfall run since 02-03. Even winters with above normal temperatures have been able to produce above normal snowfall. Below normal snowfall years like 06-07, 07-08, 11-12, 18-19, and 19-20 have been the exception rather than the rule.

Our first 60° day since Christmas.

Yeah, long term SST warming is boosting the expectations for what is considered a normal Atlantic hurricane season.

Yeah, a new study indicates that the active phase that began in 1995 may be more of a new normal. With warming Atlantic SSTs, we may not be able to count on a less active phase happening again like the 1970s and 1980s. Another study just out reinforces the idea of the warm pool remaining in place to our east. We saw how the warmer SSTs and higher pressures there last summer lead to an active close in storm track.

This will be only the 6th time since 1991 that NYC had to wait until March for the first 60°+ day of the year. But it’s the first time following a warmer than average winter. So you can see how rare the winter south based blocking pattern was. First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value DJF AVG Temp 2015 03-26 (2015) 62 31.4 2003 03-16 (2003) 68 31.2 2014 03-11 (2014) 66 32.9 2010 03-08 (2010) 61 33.8 2004 03-01 (2004) 63 32.4 2021................................................36.1

GFS continuing with the first -5 to +5 AO rise in such a short period of time. 2021 2 10 -5.285 2021 2 11 -5.254

The bigger AO swings since 2010 have made seasonal AO forecasting even more challenging. https://climexp.knmi.nl/getindices.cgi?WMO=NCEPData/cpc_ao&STATION=AO_CPC&TYPE=i&id=someone@somewhere

If that +5 verifies, then I believe it would be the first time that the AO rose from under -5 to +5 in just 30 days.