bluewave

Numerous flash flood reports coming out of Lakewood.

Yeah, the steering flow under 500 mb is pretty much non existent. So these storms rain themselves out in place. While there could some hail contamination, radar estimates have several areas over 2.00” in NE PA.

POU and LGA are among the NY 90° day leaders at 20 through the 4th. Places like Newark and Freehold are at the top in NJ with over 30 days. Philly to Harrisburg have the most 90° days in PA. Data for January 1, 2022 through August 5, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 20 SARA NEW YORK RAWS 20 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 20 POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT WBAN 20 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 20 Data for January 1, 2022 through August 5, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 33 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 33 Newark Area ThreadEx 33 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 32 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 32 Data for January 1, 2022 through August 5, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 30 Philadelphia Area ThreadEx 30 HARRISBURG CAPITAL CITY AP WBAN 28 NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 27

The record high tie of 98° yesterday at AVP was the 2nd warmest on record for the month of August. Time Series Summary for Avoca Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1918 102 0 2 2022 98 27 - 2001 98 0 - 1948 98 0 - 1944 98 0 - 1930 98 0 - 1916 98 0

The 99° high at Beacon today was the warmest for any NY Mesonet site since it was set up several years ago.

It was a great summer in Long Beach with smaller beach crowds and much better parking. Perfect temperatures for bike riding on the Long Beach boardwalk. Pretty impressive heavy rain pattern also along with record summer blocking.

Yeah, June into July 2009 was our 2nd coldest on record since the 1930s.That was the last time that we had any top 10 coldest summer months. But it has been one top 10 warmest summer month and season after another since then. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jul 31 Missing Count 1 1940-07-31 71.5 0 2 2009-07-31 71.6 0 3 1947-07-31 71.7 0 4 1936-07-31 72.0 0 5 1932-07-31 72.1 0 6 1958-07-31 72.2 0 - 1946-07-31 72.2 0 7 1945-07-31 72.4 0 8 1956-07-31 72.5 0 - 1938-07-31 72.5 0 9 1933-07-31 72.6 0 10 1985-07-31 72.8 0 - 1935-07-31 72.8 0

The raw high temperature data from our last heatwave speaks for itself. 7-20 Newark…100° Somerset…100° Hillsborough-Duke…100° Brownsville…100° Corona….100° NYC…..95°……..-5 7-21 Newark..l00° Freehold-Marlboro…100° Hillsborough-Duke…100° NYC….92°……-8 7-22 Newark…100° Harrison…100° Somerset…100° Brownsville…100° Corona….100° NYC…94°…..-6 7-23 Newark….101° Harrison…101° Somerset…100° Freehold-Marlboro…100° Hillsborough-Duke…101° Brownsville…101° Corona…100° Ozone Park….100° NYC….95°….-6 7-24 Newark 102° Harrison…102° Somerset…101° Freehold-Marlboro…101° Hillsborough-Duke….102° Corona…101° Fresh Kills…100° NYC….95°….-7

You have to take a look at both the min an max temperatures and departures. The difference between KPHL and KPNE for the daily July highs and departures was very small. The minimums were where there was a larger spread. Kudos to the local NWS office for whatever investigation they are doing. That is more than we can say about NYC which has had much bigger errors since the 1990s. July PHL…max…90.5….+2.7……min…73.7….+4.1 PNE…max….90.4….+2.2….min….71.5….+2.1

While it took some time to find, this paper explains why the MADIS range test that the Gladstone site uses is so flawed. NYC is a chronically bad type of site mentioned below. The trees covering the ASOS has been an ongoing issue since the 1990s. http://www.thinkmind.org/articles/geoprocessing_2019_1_10_30010.pdf Range tests are not perfect. The record high United States temperature would fail MADIS’s range test, although it would pass MesoW- est’s test. Both MADIS and MesoWest further employ a suite of tests that go beyond their simple range tests. “Bud- dy” tests compare an observation to neighboring observa- tions. MADIS uses Optimal Interpolation in conjunction with cross-validation to measure the conformity of an ob- servation to its neighbors [2]. MesoWest estimates observa- tions using multivariate linear regression [5]. A real obser- vation is compared to the estimate, and if the deviation is high, then the real observation is flagged as questionable. These approaches are flawed in that they do not account for bad metadata, such as incorrect timestamps or incorrect locations. They do not account for chronically bad sites which produce bad data including data that may sometimes appear correct. Of even greater concern, they may not do a good job in assessing accuracy and may be incorrectly la- beling bad data as good and good data as bad. The consequences of ignoring data quality are great. How can we trust our applications and models if the inputs are bad? In turn, how can we better assess data for quality so that we can be confident in its use? In this paper, we present new evaluation results for our previously-published method including evaluation with several new data sets. These results are significant in that they demonstrate the challenges of evaluation of methods for data quality assessment of spatio-temporal weather sen- sor data. The rest of this paper is organized as follows: Sec- tion II presents relevant literature, Section III identifies general challenges, Section IV defines our approach,

The daytime highs have been right in line with the other stations in July. Maybe the drought with the lower dewpoints allowed the surrounding stations to cool off more at night? So the built up area closer to Philly was the warm spot at night. Data for July 1, 2022 through July 31, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Mean Max Temperature NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 92.1 NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 91.5 NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 91.4 NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 91.4 PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 90.5 PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 90.4 NJ NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 90.4 PA NORRISTOWN COOP 90.0 Data for July 1, 2022 through July 31, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Mean Min Temperature PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 73.7 MD STEVENSVILLE 2SW COOP 73.0 DE DOVER COOP 72.0 PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 71.5 MD ROYAL OAK 2 SSW COOP 71.1

Good to know. This was the 2nd warmest July at Freehold-Marlboro. 7 out of the 10 warmest Julys have occurred since our summers started getting much warmer in 2010. Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 80.5 4 2 2022 80.0 0 3 1955 79.8 1 4 2020 79.3 2 5 2010 78.8 0 6 2019 78.6 0 7 2011 78.5 0 8 1949 78.2 0 9 2013 78.1 0 10 2012 77.9 0

Currently the 5th warmest June 1st to August 3rd from Philly to Freehold and Newark . Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 3 Missing Count 1 1994-08-03 80.1 0 2 2010-08-03 79.8 0 3 2011-08-03 79.0 0 4 2020-08-03 78.7 0 5 2022-08-03 78.4 0 6 1995-08-03 78.3 0 7 1993-08-03 78.2 0 8 2008-08-03 77.9 0 9 2012-08-03 77.8 0 10 2016-08-03 77.7 0 Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 3 Missing Count 1 1983-08-03 78.8 61 2 1999-08-03 77.2 7 3 2010-08-03 76.7 2 4 2020-08-03 76.5 4 - 1987-08-03 76.5 30 5 2022-08-03 75.8 0 6 2011-08-03 75.4 0 - 1949-08-03 75.4 0 - 1934-08-03 75.4 0 7 2019-08-03 74.9 0 - 2013-08-03 74.9 0 8 2021-08-03 74.8 0 9 1943-08-03 74.7 1 10 2002-08-03 74.6 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 3 Missing Count 1 1994-08-03 79.9 0 2 1993-08-03 79.5 0 3 2010-08-03 79.2 0 4 2011-08-03 78.8 0 5 2022-08-03 78.6 0 6 2020-08-03 77.9 0 7 1999-08-03 77.8 0 8 2021-08-03 77.3 0 9 1988-08-03 77.1 0 10 2013-08-03 77.0 0 - 2008-08-03 77.0 0 - 1987-08-03 77.0 0

Expansion of D1 drought from Central NJ out across the Long Island South Shore. Short-term moderate and severe drought continued to expand, especially in the New York City area, New Jersey, and New England, where rainfall was sparse and temperatures were a few degrees above normal. Water use restrictions and farming impacts were becoming common across these regions as dry conditions continued another week.

Temperatures will be off to the races next few hours. HRRR and Euro have 100° around Newark today. Highs could even reach 100° in the Hudson Valley.

This is a new type of -PDO with the rest of the Pacific much warmer than during our last 3rd year La Niña Julys. New -PDO Old -PDO

Snowfall for us always comes down to how much blocking we get. Models aren’t very good at forecasting blocking beyond 1-2 weeks unless we get a major SSW. So we often have to wait until winter starts to get an idea of how the blocking and snowfall situation will work out. The weird thing about this rare 3rd year La Niña is that it didn’t follow a strong to super El Niño like after 72-73 and 97-98. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01668-1 The weird thing about it, says L’Heureux, is that this prolonged La Niña, unlike previous triple dips, hasn’t come after a strong El Niño, which tends to build up a lot of ocean heat that takes a year or two to dissipate1. “I keep wondering, where’s the dynamics for this?” says L’Heureux.

Looks like the record trade winds in July will result in a rare 3rd year La Niña for the winter.

August is starting out with the highest extent since 2014.

Since the excessive tree growth over the last decade, NYC has had many years with the peak summer highs from -5 to -7 lower than the warmest spots. The average was only around -2 for NYC from 1977 to 1986 before the tree growth put the thermometer in the deep shade. Year…….Area max…..NYC max 2022….102….95….-7 2021…..103….98….-5 2020….98……96…..-2 2019….101……95….-6 2018….101……96…..-5 2017….101…….94…..-7 2016…100…….96…..-4 2015…100……..97…..-3 2014….98………92….-6 2013….102……..98….-5 Before the trees covered the thermometer 1986….100…….98……-2 1985….97……….95…..-2 1984….98……….96…..-2 1983….100………99…..-1 1982….100………98…..-2 1981…..98………..96…..-2 1980….104……..102…..-2 1979…..98………95…….-3 1978….99………..95…….-4 1977…..104………104……NYC tied for warmest

Another 10.00”+ extreme rainfall event today.

Right on cue as the Western Atlantic SSTs are back to near all-time warmth for this time of year. We had a brief cooling from June into early July before the rapid rebound. Seems like the models have been consistently underestimating the WAR/SE Ridge beyond 120 hrs since around 2015. This is when the warm pool along with the perma-ridge began setting one new record after another.

With the front stalling to our north now, we’ll probably get scattered convection along the prefrontal trough and sea breeze front into early next week. But the location of these features on any given day will probably come down to the 12 hr daily hi res meso model forecasts.

The GFS extended the heatwave to next Monday and the Euro to next Wednesday. The models now stall the front north of l-80. So this looks like one of our most intense August heatwaves in years starting today.

All of our major stations set a new July record for the warmest July low maximum temperature. The only stations with a maximum under 80° were White Plains and Bridgeport. Even POU had their warmest low max at 83°. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 83 0 2 2010 82 0 3 1994 81 0 4 2006 80 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 81 0 2 1944 80 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 82 0 2 2020 79 0 - 2006 79 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 80 0 2 2011 78 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 80 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 76 0 - 2020 76 0 - 2010 76 0 - 2006 76 0 - 1985 76 0 - 1966 76 0 Time Series Summary for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 83 0 2 2020 78 0 - 1955 78 0