bluewave

I would prefer the term competing influences rather than limited response.

Not taking away from the El Niño meant the metrics that snowman was mentioning for this El Niño are all solidly El Niño. But the weaker MEI is coming as a result of the WPAC warm pool and MJO 4-6 phases. So these warmer MJO 4-7 phases make this December in North America much warmer than we would expect just from an El Niño alone. The super El Niño warmth in December 2015 was enhanced by the record MJO 5 for such a strong El Niño. And the North American warmth in 2021 was also driven by warmer MJO interaction with La Niña.

Yeah, very strong El Niño effects combined with La Niña-like MJO 4-7 phases. This was the first time Australia had such an early tropical cyclone during an El Niño year. So some of the warmest SSTs on record near Australia during an El Niño is why the RONI is lower than usual. Doesn’t take anything away from the actual strength of the El Niño. But gives it some Nina-like flavor. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/12/world/australia/cyclone-jasper-queensland-australia.html This is the first time since records began in the 70s that a tropical cyclone arriving has so early in the season in an El Niño year, which is characterized by hot and dry conditions, Laura Boekel, a senior meteorologist with the Bureau of Meteorology, said at a news conference on Wednesday. Australia’s tropical cyclone seasons usually run from November to April in the country’s north, but in El Niño years, the season doesn’t usually start until January or February, she added.

That’s the key. 60°+ or 55°+ days have become much more common around snowstorms especially in January and February. But all such cases had a nearby source of cold air to tap. This current air mass is all Pacific in origin. It won’t get the job done this early in the season for more than mood flakes to some light accumulations near the coast.

I understand what you are saying. Terms like torch and deep freeze can be too subjective to convey specifics in a forecast. I try to use more precise terms.

Maybe he did. I think he popularized delayed but not denied also. The main problem with terms like torch is that there is no precise definition if you are doing a forecast. But yeah, December 2015 was ridiculous. I was mostly using terms like historic to really try and do justice to what happened that month.

I never even used the term torch in December 2015. Mainly since I am respectful of others in here who are triggered by that term.

Who on this forum specifically called for a Merry Torchmas for NYC Metro? I know for sure that I didn’t.

Yeah, the key is getting an amplified enough 8 in the first place and having the most favorable ENSO state for the given month. Additionally, over 90% of Boston Logan Airport snowfall during the winter fell during phases 7 and 8 of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) index. This motivated the authors to investigate potential connections between intense southeastern New England snowstorms and the MJO in the historical record. The Relationship between the Madden–Julian Oscillation ...

We can still have highs in the 40s from 12-26 to 12-31 and have above average temperatures since the NYC average split is 41/31. I have not heard anyone on twitter using the term torch to describe our late month pattern here. But maybe the term was used for the Upper Midwest to Canada.

While most of the MJO action in recent years has been focused on the warmer MJO 4-7 phases, we get an occasional colder month when the MJO and ENSO actually give us a decent winter pattern. The MJO and La Niña teamed up for the amplified phase 8 stall in January 2022. This was the 2nd snowiest January on record at Islip. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 2011 34.4 0 2 2022 31.8 0 3 2015 30.2 0 4 1978 27.7 0 5 2014 25.2 0 6 2016 24.8 0 7 1965 24.6 0 8 2018 22.0 0 9 2005 21.5 0 10 1996 20.2 0

Who ever used the word torch? It’s not even a scientific term. Even when describing the warm up ahead of the cutter near 60° early next week I don’t use that term.

That isn’t a lot of cold air by late December standards. We go from 60° to -2 to -4 for a couple of days before we warm up back above normal again. The 26th to 31st may be the warmer minimums driving the +departures with the fast flow and clouds.

From all the historical accounts that I have read, the winter of 1779-1780 was probably the coldest on record going back to the colonial times. If this Philly account of the temperature only getting above freezing once in January 1780 is close, then the monthly average may have only been around 15°. The coldest month on record since 1874 was January 1977 at 20.0°. https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Philadelphia_Area_Weather_Book/mon_ivVXUY4C?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=january+1780+cold+philadelphia+pa&pg=PA76&printsec=frontcover Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1977 20.0 0 2 1893 24.0 0 3 1918 24.1 0 4 1970 24.5 0 5 1982 24.7 0

These extreme rainfall events have become the new normal for us since 2003. Many years in NYC have finished above 50.00”. Plus if this comes far enough west for high winds, this has been a repeating theme since 2010. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1983 80.56 Rain gauge malfunction so total likely overdone 2 2011 72.81 0 3 1972 67.03 0 4 2018 65.55 0 5 1989 65.11 0 6 2007 61.67 0 7 1975 61.21 0 8 1990 60.92 0 9 2006 59.89 0 10 2021 59.73 0 11 2003 58.42 0 12 1903 58.32 0 13 1889 58.18 0 14 1913 58.00 0 15 1973 57.23 0 16 1984 57.03 0 17 1971 56.77 0 18 1996 56.19 0 19 1927 56.06 0 20 2005 55.97 0 21 2023 55.21 19 22 1977 54.73 0 23 2014 53.79 0 24 2009 53.62 0 25 2008 53.61 0 26 1933 53.53 0 27 1888 53.32 0 28 1919 53.29 0 29 1920 53.20 0 30 2019 53.03 0 31 1937 52.97 0 32 1902 52.77 0 33 1884 52.25 0 34 1979 52.13 0 35 2004 51.93 0 36 1871 51.38 0

12z Euro correcting warmer for our annual warm up around the solstice. New run Old run

It’s the same pattern in the ensemble means.

The main reason to be skeptical the OP CMC single digits just west of NYC at 10 days is that it’s a big cold outlier among it’s ensembles along with the GEFS and GEPS. This is why it’s much better to use ensemble means beyond 5 days. The ensembles are pretty good at this range but their have been numerous runs way too cold from the OP at days 7-10.

This has to be one of the most extreme VP anomaly signatures in the general MJO 6-7 regions for this time of year. The Pacific Jet extension and record breaking ridge and warmth over the Northern Tier and Canada are a perfect match for forcing in that location. Unfortunately, the warmth following these jet extensions can last a few weeks which the models are showing.

Only the 4th time on record that suburbs like Westchester couldn’t drop below 28° during the first 12 days of December. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 12 Missing Count 1 1998-12-12 36 6 2 2015-12-12 29 0 - 1953-12-12 29 1 3 2023-12-12 28 0

But only enough to qualify for decadal snow cover extent lows this time of year in North America. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html

This may be the warmest day 10-15 EPS signal I ever saw for Canada this time of year.

The general storm signal is pretty high following the record 500 mb ridge forecast for the Upper Midwest in a few days. But the track is still uncertain.

Those are going to be some extreme December monthly departures for places like International Falls as they are already at +11.9. Time Series Summary for International Falls Area, MN (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 11 Missing Count 1 2015-12-11 32.4 0 2 1913-12-11 30.3 0 3 1920-12-11 28.6 0 4 1999-12-11 27.9 0 5 2023-12-11 27.6 0 6 1923-12-11 27.0 0 7 2020-12-11 26.6 0 8 1952-12-11 25.0 0 9 1967-12-11 24.8 0 10 1998-12-11 24.6 0

Yeah, most of the people that I discuss the warmer winters with off this forum are really happy about the milder winters. We seem to be in the minority in liking colder and snowier winters. There are many people who can’t wait to head south when they retire.