CNY_WX

Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said:

19F in Saranac Lake and its approaching 70 in DC!

Is that what you call a baroclinic zone, lol. Sounds like spring is raising it’s head. 

2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

If the Euro, looks good., Im in!

Don’t get too excited, it’s still a week out. 

Beat me to it, Wolfie!  Puts the low at 972 mb over Kingston, NY at hour 186!

Does the GFS know what it’s doing?  Major run to run changes!  Let’s see what the FV3 says then the Euro. Even the GEM pops a secondary and gives us a few inches of snow. 

I think you can throw that 18Z GFS run in the trash. What a radical change from 12Z. Unless it can reproduce that result in future runs I think it has major issues. 

I can’t tell from the maps available to me on TT but the Euro looks promising for next week. It shows a primary in the Ohio valley transferring to a secondary over the Delmarva on Tuesday. The secondary takes 24 hours to move to just east of Boston. Do we get shafted between the 2 lows?

14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

My weight lifting routine is secondary to my cardio routine. I’ve done 5 tough mudders, a bunch of 5ks, the ride for Roswell 66 mile bike ride, and plan to do some spartan races and train for the 102 mile bike ride for cancer for Roswell. I can do a 21-22 min 3 mile. Don’t let my lifts fool ya.  Quite a few of my friends do personal training, it’s my dream job aside from meteorology. It just doesn’t pay well at all. It’s exciting seeing people change their lives in such a short time. Speaking of cancer my mom got diagnosed with it, were not sure what kind yet but it doesn’t look good. 

Sorry to hear about your mother, she’s probably about my age (maybe younger). Is she going to Roswell Park, you can’t do much better than that?

I’ve always had a weight problem. In my 20s I was up to about 250 lbs. I started doing aerobics during the aerobics craze in the 80s and loved it and within 6 months I lost 60 lbs. I kept exercising through my 30s. Unfortunately as I got into middle age I got lazy and put weight back on. Now I’m paying for it with Type 2 diabetes and heart issues. I would love to at least start walking but as I said I have a really bad knee so I’m going to need to fix that first. 

9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

What a beautiful day out, sitting at 54°, wonder if we can make a run at 60..

Just took my first 5 mile walk of the year!!!

Just like how you beef cakes love to go to the gym I Walk Walk Walk lol

Haven't been to the gym since I was 18, I'm now 36 lol

I walked most of this in a calendar year dropping from 250lb to 165lb, walking in nature is also a tremendous stress reliever and the best medicine you can use for anxiety/ADHD/depression.

Winter who? Haha

Good for you, Wolfie.  Losing 85 pounds is quite an accomplishment!  When I was younger I used  to scoff at walking like it wasn’t really exercising. Now I wish I could walk a couple of miles, it’s great exercise. I have a knee so bad it hurts when I walk around Wegmans. I’m probably looking at a knee replacement pretty soon. 

Keep hope alive, lol.  Just remember VD has been a good date around here.  

Below normal temperatures, above normal precipitation and we only end up with near normal snowfall in January. 

9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

This is the kinds of Winter it has been lol

Can't even snow with a more favorable track..

CNY may be the worst spot for synoptic snowstorms lol

Warm air shoots up into cny so easy..

Look how over about 50 miles over Oswego and Onondaga counties it goes from snow to freezing rain to rain, lol. 

7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yeah, when you look at the 12Z runs, they are showing us right in the zone. At this point, it could spell an ice event. Just a tad north and it's rain. Just a tad south and it is snow. But barely south because then we will get nothing. Lol

Ya, watch it end up rain at 35 degrees, the worst possible weather except maybe ice. 

35 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Need to breakdown that SE ridge..

I wish I didn't even look at the euro haha 

Maybe the worse OP run this year lol 

Notice how close we are to the baroclinic zone at 850. All we would need is for it to set up a couple hundred miles to the south and we would be in business. We are actually normal to slightly below with 2 meter temperatures which would be around 30 this time of year. 

Forget the models, winter cancel!  Punxsutawney Phil is predicting an early spring!

They’re getting more snow in Washington DC right now than here! 

10 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Hey everyone, my stepdaughter and her family moved to Watertown back in September from Texas and she has been posting pictures on FB of this storm. Late today they had actual whiteout conditions where you could not even see the telephone poles on her street or even the stoplight 3 house down from her. She and her kids have been amazed at how much is falling. She easily has over 2 feet and is coming down hard still.

She is definitely getting her baptism by fire or should I say snow. Welcome to lake effect country!

58 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

It's a weather weenie!

I was wondering what that was supposed to be, lol!

Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Don't let Wolfie get your hopes up CNYwx of seeing a few flakes cause as soon as soon as the band just about gets here, its gonna shrink back to the Lake, lol!

The ultimate tease, lol!

It looks like a secondary band has formed from Oswego to Pulaski. Appears to be a continuation of a band off Lake Erie. 

30 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I am in the middle of a band of HEAVY sunshine right now. When I look outside at it, I can barely see.

Does that mean your visibility is almost zero?

49 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

My boss just handed me an article with pictures from this area when Redfield got over 11 feet of snow on one week of February 2007.

I said, "Oh, so lake effect bands do hit here...."

He said, "Yeah, just not this year..."

Lol

If you have time check this out.

At least that storm spread some love down this way. 

Carol just reported 1-2 inches per hour in N. Redfield. 

I can see the southern edge of the band from my house. 

3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Snow starting to pick up some, i could just take a 1/4 mile walk lol

HRRR turns winds more westerly/WNW later this afternoon/evening..

It will make it to Central Square then stop, lol. 

Not to be the bearer of bad news but it looks like the band is taking a jog north out over the lake.