It's a coping mechanism. If I convince myself guidance says its going to suck, I am less disappointed when it actually shits the bed. I think its the "denial" stage of grief.
Given the lingering emotional damage from this past weekend's storm, I will believe this when I have 5" down with favorable radar presentation ongoing.
I think, at least in my opinion, that I would rake a mediocre season with a serious big dog in a heartbeat. You give me 20"er and nuisance stuff the rest of the season, and I am going to be happy.