Stebo

6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

WAD

Entirely possible for sure.

4 hours ago, roardog said:

We should let everyone that does the extremely hard work of putting togethet a winter forecast know that as long as this person is in their pool in October the temps the following winter will be mild. Throw everything else you thought you knew about seasonal forecasting out the window. 

People were swimming in October in 2007 as well, I am sure everyone here would take that winter in a heartbeat.

Hottest day locally looks to be tomorrow, they jacked up the temps to almost 90 in a good portion of SEMI.

3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like some patchy frost next week.  Other than that looks pretty uneventful for the foreseeable future.    

Hot and boring to cool and boring. Maybe we are saving up the interesting shit for winter, but right now its been kind of stagnant for a while.

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Jan and Feb were the mildest in years

Jan: +7.7

Feb: +6.0

Mar: +0.6

Apr: +1.3

May: -0.6

Jun: -1.3

Jul: -0.4

Aug: -2.0

Sep: +1.3

I mean those are some huge departures and we are going into mod to strong El Nino winter which isn't almost certainly going to be above normal maybe significantly above normal.

54 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I actually prefer dry during the color show. 

As was the case all summer, we will miss the core of the heat. Probably max out in the low 80s Wednesday.

Yeah it is going to be warmer up north.

Yeah it looks like hot and dry to cool and dry for the first 10 days of the month.

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It was the coolest August since 2004. Could have played a role. Fortunately the coming warm spell has shortened and muted from the GFS original nonsense.

I'd been fine if it was longer, temps near 80 this time of year are great.

35 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Sept 2023 will set record for 53 as the coldest it got all month in MKE. Every other September has had a colder night than that. 2019 was #2 and 2021 was #3 on that list as well. Which is clearly forming a pattern of rapid warming.

Which I am not denying at all. I know that nearly every record in this region especially in summer has been set in the last 20 years, you aren't telling me knowledge I don't already know. All I am saying is even with that heat it doesn't predicate what can happen in Winter.

4 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

And we will begin October with one of the warmest on records as well.  If people aren't having a "lightbulb" moment about what's going on, I don't know how to help them.

2007 was hot. 07-08 is a top 5 winter for pretty much everyone in this subforum beside Ohio and they had one of their best storms ever. So no.

5 hours ago, Lightning said:

Solid rain event here with 0.98" 

.83" at DTW.

8 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

This El Nino is going to split the jet stream keeping the polar jet north of Lake Superior nearly all of winter.  What's going on in Siberia and northern Canada isn't going to be much relevant because of that.

That is not certain especially if we remain in a strong -PDO. I know many outlooks show that but they are binary El Nino outlooks with literally nothing else added. Low value output to be presented by the media.

4 hours ago, thomp2mp said:

Constant horrible feeling light rain since around 7 tonight. Got about a quarter inch so far though. Humid cool air makes me sad. 

We had .42 in an hour before I left work earlier. Solid rain that we kind of needed.

12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah the GFS is pretty much useless.

After its parade of 110s all summer I don't think I can trust it on anything.

Not even close, 2007 was in the 90s

3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

18z GFS showing snow showers next weekend in Iowa.  Won't happen but shows that that kind of thing ain't too far away.  

GFS and hilariously bad modeling with early cold snaps, name a better combo.

16 minutes ago, roardog said:

I don’t have any evidence to back this up but I feel like the temperature in August plays a role. We had a cool August this year and I was seeing more color than usual already at the end of August. I remember in 2017 after the cool August, we had quite a bit of early color showing up until the 90F temperatures in the second half of September seemed to slow it down. 

Cooler nights in Aug definitely help, I noticed when I went up north mid Aug to Lake County there was already a splash of color there.

Yeah I wouldn't say this is CC related except the frequency of these instances occurring more often. When Sandy happened in 2012 many states in the Midwest set records for sightings of unusual birds that got pushed in from the east.

1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said:

Wow, definitely ahead of us. The only real change here is the yellows. Just outside the city though the change is happening fast. Algonquin is at peak and most areas outside Toronto (especially north and east) are 30-40% 

Yeah I am quite surprised how much the color has changed in the last week here, we did have a few cool nights but I think more so has to do with how dry it has been recently. Trees are burning through their fuel right now.

2 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

Plenty of support showing warm into distant future.  Look at CFS, CPC, NAEFS, OP Models, Ensembles, etc.

Where did I say it wasn't going to be warm? Idc what others are saying you immediately went to different opinion with me when I didn't even present one. And with all of those models you'd think you'd post some maps. But nah you just say it's going to be warm just to piss people off. What actually will happen is irrelevant to that point.

7 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Also been here over 8 years man.  If you're digging back decades, you have demons in the closet that need counseling.

And? Now your protector in this subforum is also banned and did a shitty job moderating too. This winter we aren't going through post after post of your stupid empty nonsense.

6 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

If you're fine, you gotta chill a bit and accept different viewpoints.  Like I said, I'm just here to discuss the weather.  It sounds like you prefer echo chamber forums, which isn't healthy discussion.

It's not a different view point. You have no point you just say warm without any single bit of discussion. We have AI that can do a better more interesting job than you. And you have been banned before because of your tedious garbage.

4 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Sounds like you have some anger and personal things to work through man.  I'm just here to discuss my viewpoints on the weather.  Hope you can get that figured out and feel better.

Nah im fine, you however should find a new hobby besides being a main character to a place that is rapidly growing tired of you

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

free hardypalmguy

Always campaigning for the worst people

and what opposing views anyways? I love all weather dumb ass.