coastalplainsnowman

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

We need a strong coastal storm like Dec 92 where we had legit 60 mph winds away from the coast

Thanks anyway. Taking a shower with no hot water or electricity after a July T storm is one thing.  Doing the same for three days with cold water when the house is around 50 is another story.  Still haven’t gotten the chill out of me.

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

2002 was the best in my life. IMBY received 9.

2002 was great - no doubt - never seen rain go over to snow and accumulate on *everything* like that did

However, 1983 takes the cake for me.  Granted, just enough snow to cover the grass and street, but check out the high temperatures from that day.  Christmas Eve's high temp was just past midnight in the 20s.  Fell through the day down to 5 on Christmas Eve night, and didn't get out of the mid teens on Christmas.  Awesome.  One year prior we were outside in short sleeves on Christmas Eve 1982..

2 hours ago, WX-PA said:

December 65,,no snow mild,December 72, no snow mild, December 82, no snow mild,December 86, no snow mild, December 97, no snow mild, December 2015, no snow.mild. There are your strong nino Decembers in the last 60 years. Plain and simple.

One other point about the whole snow in December discussion.  For all the good reasons given here, there's also the whole thing about *where we live.*  For anyone on here who's not still in school/college, especially nearish to the coast: growing up how many snow days did you have in your lifetime in December?  

57 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

December 65,,no snow mild,December 72, no snow mild, December 82, no snow mild,December 86, no snow mild, December 97, no snow mild, December 2015, no snow.mild. There are your strong nino Decembers in the last 60 years. Plain and simple.

On the bright side, the biggest daily total later that winter, other than 1966, which I couldn't find, is as follows.  Statistically speaking, it seems that the last two months of meteorlogical winter for these winters are, at worst, no worse than average in terms of still seeing a big snowfall.  Maybe even better than average odds?  I'd be ok with the 2016 result lol.

1973: 1.8

1983:  12.5 (seems low)

1987:  8.1"

1998: 5.0"

2016: 27.3

40 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

So easy to torch these days vs going below normal, sad times

We have to have at least one 60 degree day the week leading up to Christmas, so everything was bound to align for that eventually.

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

We're heading into/have been for a while in a boom or bust snow distribution where we either suffer with almost no snow or we get a bonanza 50"+ season. 21-22 was a bit of an aberration since I was about at average for the winter and east of me like at ISP above average largely from the Jan 22 blizzard. 20-21 had the huge few weeks in Feb. We have boom or bust periods with little in between. What's becoming rare are the smaller 2-4" type events. 

Last year I wanted to try to prove this out, i.e. what the standard deviation looked like since 1995 as compared to the previous similar timeframe, but I never did it.  To the eye it definitely looks like the size of the standard deviation has increased significantly.

19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

55 through 69 and 2000 through 2018 can skew perception. Like I posted before, this feels to me like the winters I experienced growing up, so benefiting from experience a little.

100%. That timeframe saw 50"+ snowfall *more often than not* even on Long Island. Anyone growing up during that is bound to be disappointed.  Compare it to a kid of the 80s.  Even after 2000-2018 I'm still happy with anything that covers the grass.

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Anywho…close the shade for a while on cold/snow in our location. Hopefully Sunday is interesting with the wind. Looks like another sloppy jets game 

In fairness, the Jets could play all their home games at Atacama Desert Stadium and they would still always be sloppy.

2 hours ago, vegan_edible said:

i wish, i'm 28. saw 2001 and went from there. maybe i wouldnt want to experience 01/02

Reading this I was thinking about how if from ages 5-25 I experienced roughly a dozen winters of 50" + snowfall, on Long Island no less, what my snowfall expectations would be like with that as a frame of reference.  It would be impossible for them not to be sky high.

8 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

It is somewhat odd to me certain how individuals have difficulty grasping the magnitude of change here. It’s very evidently substantial. 

It’s not about being pessimistic, just recognition of things that have already demonstrably happened. The LIA ended in 1850 and yet the period after was still substantially colder than today. 

There were always warm years here and there, less snowy and more snowy winters. But both the magnitude of and frequency of warmth right now appears unprecedented. At least from temperature data I’ve reviewed. 

I do find that upsetting. Not much I or anyone can do about it, but it sucks. 

With that said, we can still have cold. Last Christmas was frigid and I found it very impressive. I averaged 36 degrees for Dec at my house despite the early month warmth. Not bad, but not really holding a candle compared to cold Dec of the past. 

And while true we don’t really need sustained arctic cold to snow especially as climo continues to improve, I’ll always take it and roll the dice. I believe there’s correlation anyway that our snowiest winters tend to be colder on average than the warmest, which of course makes sense. But suggests we do need to eventually see some cold show up (and hopefully it does in Jan / Feb) to see a bigger winter. 
 

Not optimistic or pessimistic on the rest of this winter, just hoping we can get our chances and at least have a few fun events. About all I can ask for. 

Also, as a bit of a thought exercise it absolutely blows my mind that the terminus of a giant glacier used to exist near NYC today - only thousands of years ago which is a geologic week. It’s also wild to me how well humans endured the harsh Pleistocene when it was well and truly cold everywhere. I believe the Holocene has already continued just about longer than the other interstadials (interglacials) on average, and without intervention perhaps the LIA may have marked the beginning of the slide into the next proper stadial (heavy speculation but interesting food for thought I’ve read elsewhere; it wouldn’t have been a straight shot descent, just up and down periods that begin to average more and more down with time).

Regarding this part:

"There were always warm years here and there, less snowy and more snowy winters. But both the magnitude of and frequency of warmth right now appears unprecedented. At least from temperature data I’ve reviewed. 

I do find that upsetting. Not much I or anyone can do about it, but it sucks."

I look at it this way - In the worst case scenarios, NYC metro's weather in 25-30 years will be similar to what, current northern VA?

If you grew up there in the 80s/90s, you still had some historical and memorable snowstorms and cold.  You wouldn't have thrown in the towel, right?  The snow and storms wouldn't come quite as often as here - maybe - since there are so many other factors as we know -  but they'd still happen.

Same situation here.  It's not like we live in the Arctic, and I think the 2001-2019 set our expectations way higher than they should be.  If temperatures continue to rise like they have been, regarding historic snows, it's like our odds of winning $500 on a lottery ticket dropped from 1 in 500 to 1 in 1,500.  At the coast at least, it's always been a longshot, with enough other factors at play that the total amount of winters we're around and able to appreciate it are barely sufficient for a good sample size. 

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, very warm and dry November for the CONUS outside the Northeast.

Does it bother anyone else that they can't bother to put a color on geographic Long Island?  I mean, only about 8 million people live here.

If they did the same to Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska combined, I bet a lot of folks would rightly complain that the map isn't anywhere near complete, yet those states total about two thirds of the population of Long Island.

Also, get off my lawn!

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 80s were known for the big 3. Historic April 82 blizzard that still stands as our greatest late season blizzard. The famous February 83 snowstorm. Then the surprise January 87 snowstorm that was supposed to quickly change to rain but dropped near 10” on Long Island. You could also add the surprise December 88 Norlun that dropped around  10” on Long Island. But the snow band was so narrow that Western Suffolk had close to 12” and Long Beach got nothing. So it was too limited in coverage for me to add to my big 3 list. 

On the Nassau south shore that snow hung on til about 3:30 or so.  I remember looking out the window at school, already cursed with enough meteorology knowledge to know that rain was on the doorstep, and so was unable to share in the joy of my bilssfully innocent classmates, yet shocked at this storm which was breaking the 'inevitable changeover to rain' axiom that I'd come to just concede as a fact of life.  Will never forget shoveling my driveway after school in what had by then in fact finally become rain.  It was without a doubt the most waterlogged, brutally heavy snow to shovel that I've ever experienced. 

39 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I vaguely yremember the April 82 Snowstorm.  What I remember most about it was filling in for George Cullen at CBS NY Weather.  I made an awful gaff for predicting a daytime temperature for the city of Chicago that Steve Deshler was not happy about.  However, I noticed the LFM picking up the snowstorm.  Irv Gikofsky laughed at my analysis.  

Also, the bitter, *bitter* miss in 1989 - either February or March.  Almost the opposite of '83 in terms of expectation vs result.  Left for school expecting a heavy snow to start mid day.  Ended up with Not. A. Flake.  It was the type of storm which today would have caused schools and businesses to close premptively.  If memory serves, Atlantic City got 18" and Montauk got 12".  That one left me convinced that an '83-like storm was never ever going to happen again.  What a fitting way to end the 80s.

14 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

what result? a winter like 1997? perhaps, but favorable winters also had cold novembers. there's just as much of a chance that NYC sees 40-50" as 10" this year IMO

people weenied because of the obvious rage bait lmao

I remember years ago having to do a regression analysis for a statistics class in school.  I picked the topic "is there a correlation between snowfall in November and an overall snowy winter", hoping to find a direct relationship between the two.  I found no correlation, but didn't know if that's because there was really minimal to no relationship or because I was bad at statistics.  I'm still not sure but I'm encouraged by what you said above.

5 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

don’t write off this December. This is not a typical Nino yet. Adjusted for climate change over the last 30 years, This fall has been pretty cool. No typical nino warmth. None in sight…yet.

 

Sept AN by a decimal. Oct AN by 2 and change. Nov so far Normal. I wouldnt bet on a +5 for Dec. Lets see

 

Let's hope for a break from the trend of having one out of place, spirit destroying, hideous, 55+ degree day in the week leading up to Christmas, as we've seen in the majority of Decembers the past dozen years.

51 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

I wouldn’t either.  Probably closer to +1 to +3 tops.  Not impossible to snow, but a steeper uphill battle for the City and coast.

I think so too, although that won’t take much, given how the City came in with record low snowfall last year.  In terms of snowfall, I don’t think it’ll be a “carbon copy.”  But I have a hard time believing that we break the humdrum hemispheric pattern we’ve seen these past two years.

Again, I cannot emphasize enough how thrilled I’d be to be dead wrong on all of this.  Been aching for some real wintertime fun for too long now (esp a good ol fashioned holiday season snowstorm). 

I don't think it will be a carbon copy of last year, only because that would be the first time in recorded history.

For those raising the point that it's been much warmer lately,  let's say we have a  1980s Baltimore / DC climate now.  They still average between 16-20 inches of snow a year.  That's still a few decent storms.  What'd we get, 3-5" total along the coast last year?  Raleigh, NC averages 5.2" a year.  Are we in a Raleigh, NC climate?  No. 

For those reasons I chalk last year up to being an anomaly which will not repeat this year.  I hope this ages well.

12 minutes ago, stu said:

If there's anything I've ever learned about my 13 year old portable generator, it's that power will only come back quickly if you fire her up. The longer I leave her in the garage, the longer it will take PSE&G to fix the outage. This honestly happens nearly every time.

Absolutely.  I call that beating Murphy's Law by playing Murphy against himself.  

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

11 years agi

 

https://www.weather.gov/phi/11072012

I'll never forget this one.  After a week without power following Sandy, it was finally restored hours before this storm hit.  3 hours later, right after the generator was finally tucked away, the power was out *again*, only to come back on the very moment after I'd cleared a spot in the snow, rolled the generator back out, and had fired it up.  In the wind I believe I heard the weather gods mock me that night.

35 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Records all around, those who laughed at 80s earlier this week, lol

Wait, you took that pic doing 53 with a vehicle one car length ahead of you? 

Hey figured a lot of folks on heee would like this:

https://x.com/joecioffi/status/1717311370155229600?s=46

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

It was a great year for the extended snow cover fans. But 95-96 still wasn’t able to get challenged.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1	Missing Count
1	1995-1996	62	0
2	2004-2005	55	0
3	1977-1978	53	1
4	2014-2015	48	0
5	1993-1994	46	3
6	2010-2011	45	0
7	2013-2014	39	0
-	2000-2001	39	23
8	1964-1965	37	1
9	1976-1977	36	0
10	1963-1964	35	7

It's amazing how memories get distorted over time.  I realize of course that 95/96 was far snowier than 93/94, but my memory of 93/94 is of nearly continuous snowpack, even in the street itself on some neglected side streets.  95/96 I think of like what was discussed yesterday - big snows but with warmups in between.   I would have figured 95/96, even with all the snows, would have had half the days of 93/94.  Wow.

4 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Does a 30 inch snow storm mean much if it is surrounded by 50 and 60 degree days for the other 3 months of winter? Because many of those big El Nino storms have been that type of winter.

2015-16 was a disaster of a winter. One epic snowstorm doesnt eliminate a Dec of 70s and the latest freeze ever.

 

 

A 30" snowstorm will always mean a lot, but I get your larger point.

The reason is that most of us here don't know how to live in the moment and enjoy the damn snow while it is happening.

Before the snow has started falling, we look ahead and say "it'll be melted in two days."

Hell, during awesome banding we don't go out and enjoy it - we watch the banding *in the basement, on radar* and are sad *during the banding* because it's going to end in 20 minutes or whatever.

The above might be a bit too autobiographical, but I know I'm not the only one.  You know who you are.

Anyway, that's why I (we?)  don't like big storms sandwiched between warmth.

Am I correct to say that the radar in the Northeast is fairly unusual today?  Reminds me of how it looks with an arctic blast, except instead of flurries there are tons of what look like mini thunderstorms, though in winter they'd be coming more from the NW than from the N/NNE.

If anyone has any predictions for the upcoming fall colors that would be great.  Seems like most recent years the prediction was for muted colors due to little rain and above normal temps in the time period when they have the most impact.  This year we've been kind of normal temp wise and way above rain wise, right?  So maybe that means above normal vivid colors this year?

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Highest in the area looks to be Valley Stream. @uofmiami you should send your Syosset total in. I would think Hewlett would be higher than East Rockaway. If the radar estimate matters, Atlantic Beach/Lawrence/Inwood probably had over 10" then. 

Taking this at face value, Massapequa Park seeing nearly 2" less than North Massapequa (4.73 to 2.79) is quite the dropoff.