coastalplainsnowman

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Last February was an outlier for us on extended snow cover. This winter so far is like other recent years with quick warm ups and snowmelt. While we had an increase in snowfall since 1981, the snow cover days haven’t kept up.

 

 

This is great information.  So essentially flat in terms of snowcover days despite what looks like (eyeballing it) rolling average increase of 10-12 inches annually?  Makes sense I guess that the somewhat rising average temperatures over that timeframe offset the additional snow.

Pretty interesting too that for all the memorable storms particularly in the latter two-thirds of that timeframe, that it amounts to only about 10-12 inch increase in annual snowfall.  Understood that's a like a 30-40% increase, but in terms of actual snow, just seems like it would be more, given how we think of the 80s as so snowless and the 2000s/2010s as the best of times.  Maybe we used to get smaller, more frequent storms (like all those decent clippers) that offset the big ones that we never got?

What's with the trend lately of posters who want to speak to the manager after the dust settles after a storm?

- Last week a suggestion was made that there shouldn't be threads created for [checks notes] potential upcoming winter weather too far in advance [whatever that means], basically because it creates sadness if doesn't come true.   Not to mention that when those threads were created they are invariably accompanied by great analysis which I'm sure must take hours and hours to prepare.  How about we all be a-ok with experts providing such analysis and creating such threads whenever they please, and the rest of us can choose whether or not to read it?

- Now we have a suggestion that the moderators work harder so that the rest of don't have to scroll over some replies once in awhile that they don't like.  How about we leave it to the moderators - since they're the ones doing the work - to decide when something is out of bounds, and handle it as they see fit?  And if there's too much east/west talk for one's liking, one can always close the browser for a few hours, and check back later.

Hi all, apologies for stretching the definition of what goes in an obs thread here, but just wondering if any of the LI folks know have been on any of the big roads from Nassau westward.  Have to head upstate early tomorrow.  I figure getting off LI will be the toughest part.  Any quick insights would be really appreciated. Thanks.

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yeah he's a well known weather enthusiast.  (Edit: and from NJ.) It would not shock me if he's on this board.  Mike c'mon say hello!

Coming down kinda light right now - seems like I'm in between heavier stuff to either side of me at the moment.  Somewhere between 10-12 based on random ruler measurements, but who knows really.

Noticed again with this storm,  that KFRG (Farmingdale) often does not report snow when it is snowing.  See the example link below.  Is that automated or it is a person reporting?  On this note, basic question, if someone wouldn't mind answering - how is it determined whether snowfall is light, medium, or heavy?  

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KFRG.html

Most probably have this - traffic camera at the circle in Montauk.  I love the contrast between the stock photo when the site first loads and current conditions.

Picturing myself strolling around there on vacation on a beautiful summer morning, then comparing to what it looks like there now.

https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/usa/new-york/montauk-downtowncircle.html

Just now, nycsnow said:

Last few frames actually looks like they may merge 

That would be nice.  The snow is accumulating sort of quietly here so far.  Looking out the window throughout this event the rates have never looked great, yet here we are with I guess 10-12 so far?  

22 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Nice radar development off the Carolinas 

"any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."

I think because we're all so close to this stuff that we take it for granted, but the fact that we have models that days and days out called for that development to start right there roughly around this time will always be impressive to me.  When we talk about these models being in 'disagreement', in the big picture they are actually in pretty good agreement - they all called for a snowstorm, they're just apart by what, a few hundred miles on a planet with 200 million square miles of surface area? (had to look it up.)  Been great following this one and learning.  See y'all in the obs thread..

Regarding last minute shifts, I always think about Feb '83 and Feb '89, and how each ultimately played out.

- Feb '83 leaving for school that morning the forecast was mostly out to sea, maybe 2-5 .  By 3PM with 6" down, NWS (remember the awesome TWC red scroll and even more awesome red background screen?) was still saying only 8-10.  Ended up with 16 by me.

- Feb '89 leaving for school we were expecting to be crushed.  Ended up with not a flake, w/Montauk & AC getting crushed.

If this board existed back then, would I have known the real score heading out the door that morning, i.e. was it already really apparent in the morning and TV/radio hadn't caught up yet?  How does that compare to today?

14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Oh boy you're gonna get the weenies riled up.

we are all weenies now.

4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

That looks like a walrus getting fed at the zoo. 

Are you hungry maybe?

10 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I hate comparing to past storms because they are all different in some ways. Plus, the names are trash. Wish that never happened. 

On the naming I totally agree.  I don't care that much, but am surprised that this group is accepting of it.  Seems like the sort of overly commercial thing that would get pulverized here.

On the other hand it's a sign of the greatly increased frequency of snowstorms over the last 20 years.  Growing up I would have had Aaron ('83.)  That's it.

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what are they measuring temps on, a slab of dry ice?

 

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

HTO (East Hampton) at 3 degrees, so not far off from the FOK 0 temp.

Wow now FOK down to -1 (is this their first below zero this season?)  HTO holding at 3  (edit- HTO now down to 2.)

It just seems weird that the airport sensor seems to be right where the coldest temps on Long Island are-- what a coincidence lol.  Are we sure there isn't some nearby place around there that might be even colder?

 

Here's what I've learned this on this forum about this, but if I'm messing up this answer someone let me know.  It's the apparently sandy soil at that location which makes for great radiational cooling.  It's probably calm there currently.  With a little breeze the disparity would largely disappear.   

The thing that's always still interesting to me regardless is when there are times in the past where they'll have a temp like this ahead of a cutter, and soon as things start going, their temp is instantly, like immediately,  in line with their neighbors.

Question for the experts -  I'm trying to square what I see on the Upton site, which as of 3:20 PM has all of LI with about a 25% chance of 18+ inches and an expected snowfall of a foot for the Nassau/Suffolk border, with, at least what I'm perceiving, as a 'show's [basically] over, oh well' vibe here.  I realize that the pros on here won't necessarily agree Upton all the time, but surprised that there's this much disparity.  Why is that?  Is in part because most posters here are more north & west, where it is a different story even on Upton's maps?

Just now, Rmine1 said:

NWS Upton noting the east shifts in their AFD. I love the very last line

Just to show that there is a wide range in the model guidance, snow
probs at the 90th percentile have over 20 inches across eastern half
of the area, while the 10th percentile has borderline advisory
levels far easter areas. Bottom line, the goal posts are very wide
at this time.

 

They're not kidding!  I noticed a big disparity this morning but nothing like what's shown now.  10% for Nassau/Suffolk border is literally zero.  90% is 21 inches.  Have never seen anything remotely close to this in the few years they've been publishing these maps.  

11 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I'm looking at it as the 0Z runs tonight to me are the start of the 4th quarter with 0Z Friday being the finish line.  The analogy helps me in terms of timeframes to focus on.    

Regarding these football analogies, an important part is getting left out.  Are the models the Chiefs?  Or are the models the Jets.

49 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Nope.   On this threat (assuming it's truly crapping out) we are seeing changes 2-3 days out-in March 2001 it busted at hour 6-12

If memory serves re March 2001, I remember something along the lines of there being consensus maybe like 6 days out, then at about 4-5 days out that solution disappeared, and was replaced with consensus for a substantially different solution, which generally every model / everyone ran with right up until 18 or so hours out when it was apparent it would bust, only for places out east to end up with 15+ anyway.  Am I remembering that right?

1 minute ago, North and West said:

Some years it finds a way because it seems to want to, and other years (like this one), it finds a way not to. Que sera sera.
 

As long as we don't get lost in emotion.

(..wonders will anyone will get the reference, and embarrassed that he thought of it)

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

If it's doable for you I'd definitely head out there. Montauk is nice this time of year. 

I plan to watch from that video cam by the traffic circle.

6 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Y'all keep doing this to yourselves time after time, year after year... There's a reason models can only give us an idea of what's to come more than about 3 days out. Until all of the factors are in a zone where they can be accurately sampled the data is insufficient to lead a more accurate solution. I see that they were flying off the west coast getting samples earlier and the result was nearly instant. Maybe someday we'll have a better way to get accurate data into the models sooner but until then all you're doing is making yourselves nut(tier).

Hey what do you mean by nut(tier)?  I resent that you included parentheses.

9 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Just amazed at the potential from this storm if it follows the GEM evolution, that much rapid deepening with very cold air interacting with anomalously warm ocean temperatures suggests some very high snowfall totals are possible, perhaps March 1888 needs to be considered as part of analogue set (if there is an outcome like these model runs are suggesting). 

Think also there was a storm March 1-2 1914 that combined very low pressures, strong winds and heavy snow. That one from historical weather maps was a bit closer to NYC than the track of the Blizzard of 1888. 

My first call on this would be 18-24 inches NYC metro, 24-48 inches Long Island and parts of CT, 12-18 n NJ. Wind gusts 70-90 mph seem possible. This could create emergency situation for much of the region and most of New England. Still time for models to change but I see the nucleus of the storm already over UT, CO and WY. 

11 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I am prepared for any outcome... from cirrus to blizzard.  No expectations.  Just roll along with what is and what will be.  Tracking is still fun and interesting. 

This is awesome.  Literally the whole post, but especially "Tracking is fun and interesting."  sounds like a mantra from a self help audio tape for those with snow-related disorders.

56 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said:

I hope my area gets fringed with 3-6 inches.  And areas southeast and north east get smoked just to give most people their storm.  I'll take that, with a Saturday "taxpayers" storm is what we call it.  Easy 15 hours OT 

"Taxpayers storm."  You $#*%(*s even have a name for it lol.

Up to this point I didn't care how much I got, but now that I realize that I'm literally paying for it I want my money's worth god@$# it!

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Forecasted 2-3 feet here

5 inches

 Remember what 2-3 feet sounded like then compared to what 2-3 feet sounds like today.  Of course 2-3 feet still sounds awesome, but back then it sounded like eleventy feet.

12 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I gauge winter on cold. How deep ice is on lake for ice fishing and hockey. It's been cold here. My 20 something year old son is out on lake playing hockey. Ice is around a foot thick. Theres a a good 4-5" of snow on the ground. Still ice in the driveway I can't get rid of. There has been at least some snow on the ground since early January. 

I have family up in Sussex.  The difference in the winter weather between there and where I am on LI is like night and day, which we all know.  In the 80s as a kid, I experienced one or two gut punches per season as they got socked up there with snow while we got rain.  We got a little revenge with some of grazers of the last decade, but the score is about 100-2 in your favor.    I've got no frozen lakes, and no snowcover - just a few measly parking lot snowpiles, and that's about it.

Ah, it all pays off in early to mid April, though, when you'll occasionally get up to 72 under bright blue skies, while I'm backdoored with 49, low clouds, fog and drizzle.