coastalplainsnowman

21 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Are you on a mission to get to 100,000 posts….by this Labor Day?

I read somewhere that .001% of the Earth's rise in temperature over the last 9 years is directly attributable to server electricity demands, due to the frequency of LibertyBell's posts. Half that is due solely to the giant image and poem in his footer that have been in place only the past year or so.

Just kidding, I honestly enjoy the posts (the ducks I'm a little tired of tho.)

Am I forgetting major events, or have the past 18 months or so been painfully boring?

No extended or way above normal heat.  Ordinary winter temperatues - no cold snaps or even unusual warmth.  Some snow but nothing that much.  No real hurricane threats nor dramatic thunderstorms, nor hail.  No icing.  I'm fine with it, and I should be careful what I wish for, but it is boring.

On 5/23/2025 at 11:33 AM, LibertyBell said:

It can easily get very hot again after this nonsense goes away

In July 1993 we had a cutoff noreaster rainstorm much like this one on July 2nd, when we had a high of 66 and a low of 62.  A week later we were off to the races with a 10 day heatwave and 3-5 days of 100+

It pays to live through this stuff and have a good memory.

Also, it hit 108 on that day in Newark and 103-104 for the rest of the airports and local area.

Glad you mentioned the 108.  I really thought it was 108 also,  but since I couldn't find that documented anywhere, and figured I might have remembered it wrong, I went with the 106 I saw documented.

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

The key will be how much rain we get in early June. We probably make it back into the 80s between June 1st -10th. But we would probably need to dry out with more sun in order for the warm spots to get their first 90° of the season by June 15th. We are already running late on our first 90° day. 
 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Minimum	04-07 (2010)		08-08 (2011)		69
Mean	05-18		09-09		113
Maximum	06-17 (2014)		10-02 (2019)		170
2024	05-02 (2024)	90	08-28 (2024)	95	117
2023	04-13 (2023)	92	09-08 (2023)	92	147
2022	05-21 (2022)	95	09-04 (2022)	93	105
2021	05-19 (2021)	91	09-15 (2021)	91	118
2020	06-06 (2020)	91	08-27 (2020)	93	81
2019	05-26 (2019)	90	10-02 (2019)	96	128
2018	05-02 (2018)	90	09-06 (2018)	98	126
2017	05-17 (2017)	92	09-25 (2017)	90	130
2016	05-25 (2016)	91	09-23 (2016)	90	120
2015	05-25 (2015)	90	09-09 (2015)	91	106
2014	06-17 (2014)	91	09-06 (2014)	95	80
2013	05-30 (2013)	93	09-11 (2013)	96	103
2012	05-28 (2012)	91	09-07 (2012)	90	101
2011	05-30 (2011)	92	08-08 (2011)	93	69
2010	04-07 (2010)	92	09-25 (2010)	90	170

It's interesting that 2011, the year with by far the shortest time between first and last 90 degree days - 69 days - , is also the year that Newark had the 106 or maybe 108.

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

I remember being in the pool, blue skies and sunny overhead and a towering black cloud just to my east, with some crazy loud thunder even reaching me from that storm. 

There was a really good video from Nassau that showed huge hailstones but I can't find it. This one is from Queens that day. Look at the hailstone that falls around 28 seconds. That's a solid baseball:

 

2010 - 2012 were some wild times around here.  There was that ridiculously wet mid-March 2010 where LI lost as many trees as in a hurricane due to the ground being so saturated, then Irene, then Sandy.  All interspersed with crazy snowstorms and then 100 degree heat, including I think a 106 in Newark.  Oh yeah, a decent earthquake too.  Am I missing anything?  Fun times if you like this sort of thing, not sure if it applies to anyone here lol.

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. None of the other local airports recorded any snow.

Apologies in advance if this was already mentioned (took a quick look at the last few pages and didn't see it referenced), but is this not the 2nd latest recorded snowfall, if not the latest, in the last 50 years there?

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I do not think that’s possible.

scratch that… there were way less states in 1857

I was thinking the same, and as it turns out there were 31 states.  But the 31 already included the ones where it would be toughest to have snow, like Florida.  BTW, since I encountered this while looking into it, here's what the flag looked like in 1857:

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Unless they play opening day in a removable dome.

But this year opening day was March 27th, this is ridiculous!

Opening Day should be in the second week of April at the earliest. After April 10th!

Look, it's often warmer in November than it is in March or early April, why are they so opposed to having the playoffs cover the first half of November at least?

 

My guess is because the NFL and college really are a strong draw by then.

My solution is to have the first two weeks of games in the MLB season hosted almost exclusively in domed stadiums or warm weather cities, then make up for that later in the summer in the cold weather cities / undomed stadiums.

17 hours ago, JonClaw said:

 (∴) May 

(Edit:  changed from "=" to "(∴)" to make it a little more accurate)

Looking at the wunderground maps, 77 at the Jones Beach tower, 62 at the Robert Moses tower, 46 at Fire Island.

27 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

30° difference between north and south shores

I'm not saying it's never happened, but I sure as heck have never seen south shore temps in the afternoon of a warm spring day be even 5 degrees warmer than the north shore.  30 degrees warmer seems impossible.  Yet here we are.

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro AI!

Who trained that model, Joe Bastardi?

(I know that's an easy laugh line in these parts)

Who wants to feel old?  1993 Storm of the Century was 32 years ago today.

That's more than double the time that elapsed between it and the Blizzard of 78.  That's 2010 in today's terms.

For reference, when the 1993 storm hit, the Lindsay storm had occurred only 24 years prior.  2001 in today's terms.

Put another way, as we tracked the 1993 storm, we'd only been to the moon for the first time 24 years prior as well. 

8 hours ago, North and West said:

.

On a related note, I'm determined to actually watch my iPhone or desktop clock jump from 1:59 to 3:00 tonight.  I'll let you know how it goes.

Not sure if it's been mentioned here yet, but some decent sized brushfires in progress on the east end.  Unless it's something coincidental I'm looking at, looks very visible on satellite.

On 3/1/2025 at 12:30 PM, North and West said:

.

I'll bet my house that North and West is a dad.

Q: How can you tell when a joke is a Dad joke?

A: When its apparent.

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

JFK just switched to the dreaded ILS 13L due to winds.

that happens less than five times a year.

Always a nice brutal day for delays

For anyone else who knows as little about air traffic control as I do about weather and air traffic control, but was interested in this, I just did some quick googling:  "When the combination of minimums and winds require using the ILS to 13L, it creates major airspace issues, particularly with TEB and LGA. Hence, they only use that approach when all other options have been exhausted."  I guess that answers my question on why using it translates to delays.

I was just looking at the NESIS page.  If I'm reading it correctly, in a 13 day stretch in 2010 western southern NJ received:

4-10" Jan 29-30

20-30" Feb 4-7

10-20" Feb 9-11th

and it looks like it never got out of the 30s during that stretch.

Is this not amazing?  I've never seen a stretch like that on LI.  Closest to this would be maybe '78 before I could remember.  I don't remember this being discussed much back in 2010, but then again I see we got clocked up here a few times in early 2010 too and I have no recollection of those either.  Probably because they were so darn frequent for so long.

Don, I'm hoping you are going to do that "winter misery index" calculation / comparison for this winter when all is said and done.  Really curious to see how it will stack up if the winter stays on its current trajectory with regard to snow and temps.  Namely, whether the somewhat below normal temps will help this year land somewhere in the middle historically, despite the low snow totals.  Or, does the fact that the temps when compared to the last hundred years or so aren't all that cold after all will land it among the more miserable winters.

Wondering what folks here think regarding storms like this one and the public's perception, in particular the coastal public's perception.  In a situation like the current storm, where based on some of the maps I've seen here it could still be an 8-10 inch "event" 150-200 miles offshore, I bet that the overwhelming majority of the public don't realize that there was in fact a good sized storm, but it just missed us.  If you live in Chicago and a storm hits 150 miles to the east, everyone will still know about it because populated areas will still get pounded.  But if a storm misses NYC to the east by that much, the perception is that a big storm was predicted and absolutely nothing happened.   Maybe I'm master of the obvious, but I figured it's banter so why not.

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

So far, Bayside, VA has seen 8.0" of snow.

Don that's probably neck and neck with Bayside Queens for the year right?  I wasn't sure if that was intentional dry humor (pun intended.)

51 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Man if this verified that’s brutal. 100 miles more west for that grazer special 

If that were to keep backing in like that we could end up with one of those surprise Montauk specials like in March 1998 (or was it 1999, I always forget), where they got 14", Riverhead maybe 6", flurries at the Nassau/Suffolk border, and Sam Champion showing mostly sunny skies from atop the Empire State Building.  Not saying that's happening, but something like that did happen once.

3 minutes ago, milleand said:

Thought this was pretty good, I’m sure someone on here wrote this lol

Exactly.  From that pic it looks to me like that thing is going to hit even further southeast of the benchmark than this Thursday's "storm."  I think we'll be fine.  

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

I am certain of a period of light snow Thursday.. NAEFS support and soooo much room for development at 850MB off VA as the upper low slowly becomes neutral.in its end approach to PA  We're 4 days out.  

I am one to make an initial call... and stay with it.  WHAT IF THIS COMES BACK AND how does the NWS explain.

Once the cat is out of the barn so to speak, you stay with it, til it goes away, at least for decision makers. 

That I why the NWS is very conservative eve beyond 60 hours.  

Here in AMWX most are looking at models and wind shield wiping with every sweep and you can do that, with no impact except on the board. 

As much as the hobbyists on here can learn from guys like Walt for their technical knowledge, we (I include myself) can learn even more from them from the humble way in which they conduct themselves.  They class this place up.

Meanwhile, from the New York Post, 10 minutes ago: "Biggest snowstorm this season likely as nor’easter set to pummeled Northeast this week"

The article itself equivocates a bit, but that headline does not.  And "pummeled" - past tense - is in the actual headline, not a typo by me.

https://nypost.com/2025/02/17/us-news/could-northeast-get-pummeled-by-noreaster-this-week/?utm_campaign=nypost&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social