coastalplainsnowman

I remember being on one of these boards a long (long) time ago during a big storm, when I had just moved into my house, reporting that I'd been hearing periodic thundersnow over and over, when in reality it was my furnace kicking in. Cringeworthy before that was a common term.

Orzo it seems.

penne for your thoughts on this

ok but this model [which, to a snow lover is showing no snow, or to a rain lover is showing lots of snow] is terrible at this range

There seems to be a hard cap of about 35% happiness here.

I'd love to know how strongly correlated a snowfall prediction 360 hours out is to actual results. I know we like to joke that if it's on there at 360 that's bad because that means it won't happen, but it's probably just a wee bit better to be in the jackpot 360 hours out than for it to be showing no storm? Or is the correlation so weak as to be negligible? At what point is it better than negligible? 10 days? 8 days? I imagine those results exist somewhere? When I'm retired someday I'm going to have a lot of fun messing around with this sort of data.

I'm sure you're right, I don't remember exactly. But it's also true that for Farmingdale, NY there's been at least one 54+ day - a super mild, holiday-spirit crushing day - in the week leading up to Christmas every year for the last 14 years, including last year, when it was 58. The average of the highest temperature reached in the week leading up to Christmas Day since 2011 is 58.64. The median is 58.5. Every year I hope it won't happen, but that hasn't seemed to help.

I'll have to check that one out. I picked up a great book about it about five years ago: "Action Park: Fast Times, Wild Rides, and the Untold Story of America's Most Dangerous Amusement Park"

Anybody remember the movie Krull and the Cyclopses who had traded one eye in exchange for being able to see the future, but were tricked in that the only future they could see was their own demise? That's what this place is like. Here it is, early December. Snow to our south, sub freezing temperatures across most of this board, mood flakes on the way, below normal temperatures forecast pretty far out, and some of us *still* aren't happy, because at some point, it's going to rain or be mild again someday. As for all the talk about "we're screwed, it's going to be cold but dry", I'm willing to bet that in every year of this board's existence, there was chatter like that two days into every single solitary late fall/winter cold snap which didn't immediately produce. Sometimes it turned out to be true, but sometimes it did not. For the non mets on here who like snow and cold, enjoy the moment for pete's sake. It's always eventually going to be warm again.

This was great - thanks for sharing. Folks were mentioning Alberta Clippers in the 90s, but honestly I remember them as a staple of the 80s. Those were always fun to track (and as a kid in the 80s, 'track' meant looking out for an updated 'A Look Ahead' on TWC, and tuning into the local mets at 45 past the hour.) They might miss to the south, and they might not have big potential, but at least rain was never in the equation. Plus, whatever did fall often stuck around awhile. Back then - this is prior to the spoils of 2000-2018 - a clipper whose potential was bumped up from 1-3 to 2-4 was enough to get us amped up as kids. 3-6? Amazing.

For a minute there that thing looked like it was going to get pinched out in the direction of the camera guy at 200MPH.

Definitely. January and the first three weeks of February as well. Best chance right now is looking like February 22nd. Not the morning, but the afternoon. After that, with the sun angle there's no chance anyway.

It’s so clear that local news still draws a a lot of eyeballs when they cover winter weather. Wall to wall coverage. WeatherTracker engaged! Can’t blame them. I’d be lying if I said I don’t still enjoy it. Brings me back to a simpler time when we were all tuned in together. Having said that, NJ declaring a state of emergency for 5 counties, and the on air folks saying stay off the roads unless absolutely necessary seems over the top.

So you're tellin' me there's a chance?

Was confused for a moment because I distinctly remember a December 5th storm which crushed LI, noteworthy for how quickly it melted away. But I see now that one was 2003.

If he is voluntarily outside playing baseball in the snow in freezing / near-freezing weather in November - not even March when the season is around the corner, but when it's officially over in November - that kid is going D1.

First Sunken Meadow, now North Shore Tower. Deer must like the golf courses because they've seen the aim of the people at those places and know they're perfectly safe.

Rainbow-rama for about 10 minutes there.

Sunrise in Toledo Ohio on New Year's Day would be 9AM. I think that would annoy a lot of people there, along with any other places on the western edge of timezones, especially in the north. Anyway, I'm sure the preferences for more light in the morning vs more in the evening break down about 50/50. I can see going back to standard time year round, but DST year round? I don't get it. Is there really still a compelling energy savings case for DST?

A sprinkler valve broke last night and I'm not handy with those, so rest assured that it will absolutely be the Atacama Desert around here until I'm able to get someone in to repair it.

Agreed, My expectations have been set so low as a result of the past few years that anything within striking distance of near normal snowfall and temps, if it were to happen, would feel like a win. Glad I enjoyed every minute of the 2000-2018 stretch while it lasted, because it sure feels like a distant memory.

From Twiiter:

Funny you say that. We definitely had the 'eye' and I had remembered the warnings from the elders (lol) that once that eye went through it was going to be just as bad again, but the skies pretty much stayed blue as you say. Still the best sustained winds I've ever witnessed, but as years go by I wonder if Sandy was worse, simply because so many more trees went down, even given so many had already been culled by Gloria, the 2010 extended heavy rain/wind event, and Irene leading up to it. What towns do you think fared the worst on LI w/Gloria? I'd always heard it was Massapequa/Amityville. Tobay Beach right on the Nassau Suffolk border seemed like it lost half its sand when we returned the next summer. Went from an endless beach to one where there was little room in spots between the shore and the dunes. It was never the same. To me that was the biggest impact of the storm.

Just remembered Gloria was 40 years ago Friday (edit: Saturday.) I got on here figuring someone would’ve brought it up, but I’m not seeing it. For someone who grew up in the 80s on the south shore near the Nassau/Suffolk border, it persists as a top 5 all time event.

Thanks Don! Unlike meteorology, I actually know statistics so this is great. Much appreciated.